A cycle of retaliatory violence has no winners

After Saturday morning’s series of Israeli air strikes on three Iranian provinces that claimed the lives of at least four soldiers, the people of the Middle East – again – find themselves holding their breath amid fears that a new cycle of violence is beginning. It is notable therefore that a close reading of the many government statements criticising Israel’s retaliatory bombardment of Iranian targets reveals a recurring word: restraint. The UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the wider region have rightly urged all sides to avoid exacerbating what is an already-volatile situation. Whether Israel and Iran follow this sage advice to de-escalate remains to be seen. Tehran has said that it “considers itself entitled and obligated to defend against external aggressive acts”. This is perhaps unsurprising, given that it has suffered at the hands of Israeli attacks before, most notably on April 1 when its embassy complex in Damascus – effectively Iranian territory – was destroyed by an Israeli air strike. But many in the region will be hoping that this latest response to the two Iranian barrages launched at Israel this year will be the end of the matter, particularly amid diplomatic attempts to end the two catastrophes taking place in Gaza and Lebanon. Sadly, some of the signals coming from Israel’s political class are not promising. While hardliners such as former deputy prime minister Avigdor Lieberman suggested that Saturday’s strikes did not go far enough, figures considered to be more centrist also indulged in some ill-timed sabre-rattling. Opposition member Benny Gantz, a former army chief and defence minister, found common cause with National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, an ultranationalist member of the Israeli Cabinet, when they both cast Israel’s strikes as a precursor to further attacks on Iran. More attacks are the last thing the Middle East needs, whatever the perceived need for self-defence, deterrence or retaliation. Even the most precise strikes can go wrong, leading to unintended and dangerous consequences. Indeed, such cross-border warfare poses all manner of military and political risks, particularly by violating other countries’ air space – as Israel is alleged to have done on Saturday. An unending cycle of retaliatory violence has no winners. This much was clear in the UAE’s statement condemning Saturday’s bombardment of Iran. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that enhancing dialogue, adhering to international law and respecting state sovereignty “remain the ideal foundations for resolving the current crises”. These are principles to which both Israel and Iran should be able to adhere, to stop fanning the flames of a full-scale conflict in which all sides will suffer. Such principles need not be confined to this dangerous dynamic playing out between Israel and Iran. The wars in Gaza and Lebanon – both of which are hugely destabilising for the region as a whole – can and should be ended through diplomatic means. Immediate ceasefires by all sides in both locations would serve to effectively and quickly reduce the regional temperature. The alternative is a Middle East that remains fearful of the future. After decades of conflict, and months of acute and painful suffering in Gaza and Lebanon, it is time for another way.