As Israel's war in Gaza has entered its ninth month, with no signs of a ceasefire, its border clashes with Lebanon have taken a turn that is dangerous for both countries as well as the wider Middle East.
The last time Israel and Lebanon were at war on a full scale was in 2006. Following last October's Hamas-led attack on Israel that killed 1,200 people, there have been frequent exchanges of fire between the adversaries. But the border attacks between Iran-backed Hezbollah and Israel, which up to a few months ago seemed largely confined to antagonistic posturing, have in past weeks intensified to a degree that has rightly alarmed the international community, as has the sharpening of rhetoric and threats from both sides.
Iran's UN mission said on Friday that if Israel launches a “full-scale military aggression” on Lebanon, an “obliterating war will ensue”. The right-wing members of Israel's government haven't held back, with Defence Minister Yoav Gallant talking about "taking Lebanon back to the Stone Age". Previously, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah had warned Israel that “everything you see we can see and everything we can strike". Iraqi militia Asa'ib Ahl Al Haq declared last week that US interests in the Middle East, especially in Iraq, will be a target if the US supports an Israeli offensive against Lebanon.
A full-blown war between Israel and Lebanon would wreck civilian lives on both sides, almost certainly draw in Iran, and further destabilise the entire region. It should never have reached this point.
Already regular rocket fire on the militarised Blue Line, separating Lebanon and Israel, has killed dozens of Lebanese and Israelis and displaced tens of thousands on either side of the border. For many families who have had to flee their homes in villages around the Blue Line, the war is already at the door.
Lebanon's caretaker Prime Minister, Najib Mikati, on Saturday, spoke of his country's desire for peace. This needs to be amplified. The US is reported to be holding back-channel talks with Iran to defuse tensions. International pressure and all diplomatic efforts must be increased to de-escalate the situation. Fearing all-out war, several countries have told their citizens to leave Lebanon, including the US, European countries, Kuwait and Jordan.
Hezbollah's allies need to also push the militia group to seek de-escalation. Israeli fighter jets circling the skies above Beirut, as on Saturday evening, may or may not have been a scare tactic. Either way, the people of Lebanon are in no position to cope with war, on top of a devastated economy, a presidential vacuum and the several daily manifestations of a collapsed state.
In the 18 years since Israel and Lebanon's previous war, the military capabilities of both Israel and Hezbollah have been significantly bolstered. Hezbollah has a sizeable arsenal of rockets. The group, as recently as Thursday, said it fired “dozens” of rockets at a military base in northern Israel in retaliation for Israeli air strikes – the kind that have annihilated much of Gaza.
The world needs Israel to end the war in Gaza, not start a new one in Lebanon. The exact ramifications of Israel opening a new front with Lebanon, while unknown, can only be "potentially apocalyptic" – as the UN humanitarian co-ordinator Martin Griffiths, said last week, warning that Lebanon was “the flashpoint beyond all flashpoints".
The international community must issue a strong, unequivocal push towards restrain and calm. A war in Lebanon is unacceptable. It would unleash too potent a response. Diplomatic efforts must be towards ensuring that cooler heads prevail in the Israeli government as well as in the ranks of Iran-backed militia. No winners emerge from a full-scale war. To fully understand repercussions, both sides need to look no further than Gaza.
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