Attacking Red Sea shipping is a high-stakes game in which there is little to be won

In this photo released on November 20, a Houthi fighter is seen standing on the seized Galaxy Leader cargo ship in the Red Sea. There have been dozens of similar attacks carried out by the rebels agaiShow more

As much of the world struggles to resolve the appalling war and collective punishment in Gaza, others who are far removed from the deadly realities in Palestine are using the conflict as cover for a dangerous game of brinkmanship in international waters. It is a game in which there is little to be won and much for everyone to lose. And, as with any high-stakes game, there is always the risk of unintended consequences.

A drone strike launched from Iran on Saturday that hit the Japanese-owned MV Chem Pluto, a chemical tanker, about 400km off the Indian coast was a considerable escalation in the string of maritime attacks ostensibly being carried out in support of the Palestinians and against Israeli interests. Saturday’s incident joins dozens of similar attacks carried out by Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi rebels on Israeli-linked international shipping in the Red Sea.

These attacks have not brought results to ease the suffering of Palestinians – there has been no reversal in Israel’s military assault. They have instead galvanised the international community and led to the creation of a US-backed task force to patrol shipping routes in the region. When Pentagon press secretary Maj Gen Pat Ryder recently suggested that the Houthis may have “bitten off more than they can chew” there were echoes of earlier shipping conflicts in the region.

The so-called Tanker War in the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz took place during the second half of the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq War. Repeated attacks on international shipping came to an end with the deployment of the largest US naval convoy assembled since the Second World War, further entrenching a formidable western military presence in the region. Now, decades later, new threats to international shipping are increasing foreign military intervention.

Already the current multinational operation in the Red Sea is having an effect, with Maersk – a major shipping company – preparing to resume operations through the vital waterway. Although the threats to shipping have caused considerable disruption as many vessels are rerouted through the Cape of Good Hope, they are not doing anything to change the situation in Gaza – and it is debatable that Gaza is the motivating factor here.

Instead, danger is being posed to the solid progress that was being made in Yemen towards reaching a nationwide ceasefire. The Houthis must ask themselves if they have bitten off more than they can chew, and whether they can cope with the international reaction.

For its part, Iran has dismissed US accusations that it is helping the Houthis to carry out their attacks, with Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian describing White House claims as “baseless”. Nevertheless, Tehran is the primary supporter of the Houthis and can help influence de-escalation.

Overall, playing dangerous games with international shipping holds no good outcomes for Yemenis, Palestinians or the people of the region generally. It is clear that further escalation is in no-one’s interests.