Lebanon's fuel crisis can worsen

People push their cars due to a lack of fuel, near a gas station in Dora, Lebanon, August 17. Reuters

Inflation in Lebanon has now hit triple digits, resulting in extreme poverty and widespread hunger. The price of bread, fixed by the government, is more than three times higher than it was at the beginning of the country's economic crisis in October 2019.

Lebanon has been without a properly functioning government since Hasan Diab resigned as prime minister a year ago, after the Beirut port explosion, instead taking on the role of caretaker prime minister. But even in the absence of any solid leadership, government officials could do more to deliver respite to people, even in the short term. As Raoul Nehme, Lebanon’s Minister of Economy, wrote in The National this week, the Cabinet ought to convene in person to formulate a plan to alleviate the massive fuel shortage and power cuts, however long deliberations take.

Last week, a leading hospital in Beirut, lacking as many as 3,300 vital supplies of medicines and equipment, was in danger of losing 230 lives of patients on respiration machines that depend on electricity. A temporary supply of diesel was delivered to the hospital when Lebanon's energy ministry and the central bank agreed to maintain subsidies on the existing supply of fuel.

Perhaps even more concerning than the state’s inability to supply fuel is the militant political party Hezbollah’s claims to be able to do so, via its ally and sponsor Iran. A shipment of Iranian diesel is reportedly on its way to Lebanon. Its docking in Beirut’s port would risk violating US sanctions. Experts have told The National that the ship may be diverted to Syria, allowing the fuel to be unloaded there and transported to Lebanon by road. Lebanese authorities may also request a sanctions waiver from Washington. Should it arrive, the fuel is likely to feed generators to provide the Lebanese people with only temporary relief. An emergency plan cobbled together by a legitimate caretaker government is the only long-term solution.

Hezbollah says the ship is the first of many carrying Iranian diesel to Lebanon. The group's leader Hassan Nasrallah has said: "All arrangements are finalised". He also cautioned against US and Israel from interfering.

Former Lebanese prime minister Saad Hariri did not mince his words when he accused Hezbollah of treating Lebanon like an Iranian province. "These decisions will double people's economic misery and pave a highway to hell," he said, adding that Iranian ships to Lebanon will create a situation similar to the US sanctions on Venezuela, which also received shipments of Iranian fuel. It would also further solidify an emerging, Hezbollah-controlled parallel economy in Lebanon.

Adding to these woes, the Lebanese people might have to shell out more for already precious fuel, seeing as Lebanese officials on Saturday decided to reduce subsidies on fuel imports as maintaining those subsidies was becoming untenable – the Central Bank said that the subsidies that were in place have burnt through the buffers. It would take a nod from Parliament to dip into the reserves that remain.

If the fuel crisis is not resolved and with Hezbollah-enabled shipments playing the temporary troubleshooter, providing essential commodities that the state is failing to, the food stored in industrial freezers will spoil and ovens will grow cold. With not enough bread and hospitals already stretched, there is room yet for Lebanon's downward spiral to become steeper.