When the 2011 uprisings began, there was a particular euphoria that swept through the region and beyond. That sense of elation has been replaced by something murkier and it is not hard to see why.
But just as there was a moment in 2011 that saw a crack in the established order of the Arab world, we are again in the midst of an unfolding new “moment”. The struggle between those two moments remains but there are other tensions at play as well, and this generation of Arabs has much to process in the years ahead.
The sense of rapture that existed in 2011 is over. Some will applaud this but that would be short sighted. At their core, the uprisings were about the autonomy of the Arab citizen, the reassertion of civic responsibility, and a desire for freedom from not only the figure of a dictator, but dictatorial systems. Considering the repression in various countries across the region over many decades, one had to admire those uprisings when they began. They weren’t, despite the revisionist history that is coming into vogue, anarchical movements looking to create chaos or worse. In reality, they were pleading for a better future for their generation, and those to come.
That moment is over but the key drivers that led to it remain. Moreover, those factors exist in more debilitating ways than before, partly because of events in the last four years in the region and due to simple demographics.
There is a new dynamic unfolding. At one level, it is clear that adherents and supporters of the pre-2011 political order were keen to respond, react and reassert themselves. The Arab Spring took them by surprise and while some have rather imaginative ways to ensure their continued survival and relevance, many are simply trying to roll the situation back to the pre-2010 period. But the reality is that’s not possible – when you’ve scrambled the egg, you can’t really put it back together. Something cracked in 2011 and the repercussions of that have not yet been truly dealt with in any country that felt the initial tremor.
Beyond that reaction to demands for autonomy, there are two other dynamics playing out. The first is the anxiety about Iran, not just within the Gulf, but further afield in the Arab world that was not so prominent in 2011. The second is the rise and struggle against ISIL.
Sometimes, some of the different dynamics converge. In Syria, for example, the struggle for Arab autonomy faced huge opposition from the Iranian government, which preferred a friendly regime in Damascus to the empowerment of Syrians. This is also evident in Yemen.
The threat posed by ISIL, a neo-religious phenomenon, is being felt across the region. Sometimes, it is used as an excuse but often it is appropriately recognised as a vital security concern.
As Libya edges closer to the precipice, ISIL continues to be a factor there. In Syria and Iraq, ISIL has been active far longer and there are other countries in the region that have a legitimate security issue when it comes to this group.
This dynamic did not exist in the same way in 2011. The likes of ISIL, with its territorial ambitions, simply wasn’t in play in the Arab world. Within the region, as well as in the capitals of non-Arab countries with an interest in the region, the rise of ISIL has taken up much of the bandwidth that different policy establishments maintain on the Arab world.
But just as 2011’s revolutionary moment passed, so too will these. Eventually, the likes of ISIL will fade, just like other heterodox groups in Muslim history. The attempt to reassert the old autocratic and dictatorial bargain that defined much of the Arab world may give way to other types of rule.
The question isn’t whether these dynamics will change. Of course, they must. The question is when and what will replace them. That becomes particularly important considering the factors that led to the 2011 uprisings remain.
The Arab world erupted in 2011 rather spontaneously. It did so because of the energy bottled up for so long. There is no going back to the pre-2011 scenario in that regard but some administrations can still try to turn back the clock. They will fail, but they can still try, which would be incredibly damaging.
There is an alternative, of course, which is to make it easier and possible for more Arab citizens to have more freedom to provide them with the option to build, as opposed to making them beholden, or oppressing them.
Arab autonomy is not a political rallying cry but a primordial desire and it is not going away. Arab leaders ought to recognise that and if they’re strategic, they’ll realise that they cannot eliminate it.
But they can, if they want to, join it. Unfortunately, right now, it doesn’t seem like enough people in power are willing to give more power to the people and consequently, instability is likely to fester in much of the Arab world for some time to come.
Dr HA Hellyer is an associate fellow of the Royal United Services Institute in London, and the Centre for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution in Washington DC
On Twitter @hahellyer
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Company%20Profile
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COMPANY%20PROFILE
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How to wear a kandura
Dos
- Wear the right fabric for the right season and occasion
- Always ask for the dress code if you don’t know
- Wear a white kandura, white ghutra / shemagh (headwear) and black shoes for work
- Wear 100 per cent cotton under the kandura as most fabrics are polyester
Don’ts
- Wear hamdania for work, always wear a ghutra and agal
- Buy a kandura only based on how it feels; ask questions about the fabric and understand what you are buying
The biog
Family: He is the youngest of five brothers, of whom two are dentists.
Celebrities he worked on: Fabio Canavaro, Lojain Omran, RedOne, Saber Al Rabai.
Where he works: Liberty Dental Clinic
Company%20Profile
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The specs
Engine: 2.7-litre 4-cylinder Turbomax
Power: 310hp
Torque: 583Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh192,500
On sale: Now
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The%20specs
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Auron Mein Kahan Dum Tha
Starring: Ajay Devgn, Tabu, Shantanu Maheshwari, Jimmy Shergill, Saiee Manjrekar
Director: Neeraj Pandey
Rating: 2.5/5
Company%20profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Fasset%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2019%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Mohammad%20Raafi%20Hossain%2C%20Daniel%20Ahmed%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFinTech%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInitial%20investment%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%242.45%20million%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECurrent%20number%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2086%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Pre-series%20B%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Investcorp%2C%20Liberty%20City%20Ventures%2C%20Fatima%20Gobi%20Ventures%2C%20Primal%20Capital%2C%20Wealthwell%20Ventures%2C%20FHS%20Capital%2C%20VN2%20Capital%2C%20local%20family%20offices%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
BAD%20BOYS%3A%20RIDE%20OR%20DIE
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Apple's%20Lockdown%20Mode%20at%20a%20glance
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THE BIO: Martin Van Almsick
Hometown: Cologne, Germany
Family: Wife Hanan Ahmed and their three children, Marrah (23), Tibijan (19), Amon (13)
Favourite dessert: Umm Ali with dark camel milk chocolate flakes
Favourite hobby: Football
Breakfast routine: a tall glass of camel milk
Company%20Profile
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TRAP
Starring: Josh Hartnett, Saleka Shyamalan, Ariel Donaghue
Director: M Night Shyamalan
Rating: 3/5
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What are the GCSE grade equivalents?
- Grade 9 = above an A*
- Grade 8 = between grades A* and A
- Grade 7 = grade A
- Grade 6 = just above a grade B
- Grade 5 = between grades B and C
- Grade 4 = grade C
- Grade 3 = between grades D and E
- Grade 2 = between grades E and F
- Grade 1 = between grades F and G
The%20specs
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Company Profile
Name: Thndr
Started: 2019
Co-founders: Ahmad Hammouda and Seif Amr
Sector: FinTech
Headquarters: Egypt
UAE base: Hub71, Abu Dhabi
Current number of staff: More than 150
Funds raised: $22 million
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BORDERLANDS
Starring: Cate Blanchett, Kevin Hart, Jamie Lee Curtis
Director: Eli Roth
Rating: 0/5
Afro%20salons
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UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
hall of shame
SUNDERLAND 2002-03
No one has ended a Premier League season quite like Sunderland. They lost each of their final 15 games, taking no points after January. They ended up with 19 in total, sacking managers Peter Reid and Howard Wilkinson and losing 3-1 to Charlton when they scored three own goals in eight minutes.
SUNDERLAND 2005-06
Until Derby came along, Sunderland’s total of 15 points was the Premier League’s record low. They made it until May and their final home game before winning at the Stadium of Light while they lost a joint record 29 of their 38 league games.
HUDDERSFIELD 2018-19
Joined Derby as the only team to be relegated in March. No striker scored until January, while only two players got more assists than goalkeeper Jonas Lossl. The mid-season appointment Jan Siewert was to end his time as Huddersfield manager with a 5.3 per cent win rate.
ASTON VILLA 2015-16
Perhaps the most inexplicably bad season, considering they signed Idrissa Gueye and Adama Traore and still only got 17 points. Villa won their first league game, but none of the next 19. They ended an abominable campaign by taking one point from the last 39 available.
FULHAM 2018-19
Terrible in different ways. Fulham’s total of 26 points is not among the lowest ever but they contrived to get relegated after spending over £100 million (Dh457m) in the transfer market. Much of it went on defenders but they only kept two clean sheets in their first 33 games.
LA LIGA: Sporting Gijon, 13 points in 1997-98.
BUNDESLIGA: Tasmania Berlin, 10 points in 1965-66
Chinese Grand Prix schedule (in UAE time)
Friday: First practice - 6am; Second practice - 10am
Saturday: Final practice - 7am; Qualifying - 10am
Sunday: Chinese Grand Prix - 10.10am