The situation of every post-Arab Spring country is different – but sometimes, they can seem similar. Take the country that is split between rival factions, that seeks and requires external intervention, and where UN meditation has to take place outside its borders. That isn’t a description of Yemen, although it could be, it is the current reality of Libya. The difference – apart from the disparity in population and oil resources – is that there is a credible plan on the table for Libya.
Over the past few days, the United Nations, which has been mediating talks in Morocco between the two most dominant rival factions, has revealed a proposal for a unity government. It is a plan with some merit, although there is one big hurdle.
Starting with the plan, Libya has been politically divided between two rival governments since last August: the internationally recognised government, now based in Tobruk, and the Libya Dawn militia that has taken over the capital Tripoli. The UN is seeking to form a unity government led by a broad presidential council, as long as Libya Dawn agrees to give up its own legislative body, which it appears minded to do.
In some ways, this is a last-ditch attempt by Bernardino Leon, the UN special envoy, whose mandate expires in six days. But it also represents the best way currently proposed out of the stalemate.
The elephant in the room is also the biggest hurdle: the vast number of weapons in the hands of various militias in Benghazi, Misurata and beyond. Disarming these groups, so that the unity government maintains control of the use of force, will be the hardest problem. But without it, there will never be a stable situation.
The ironic part is that Libya has plenty of moderate figures who are willing to lead the country out of this transition, but they are being overshadowed and cowed by the people with guns.
If the arms could be silenced, however briefly, it might give these Libyans a genuine chance to talk. That, in fact, is the only chance for Libya.
