After a historical moment, the historical analogies arrive. In reaching for a way to explain the far-reaching consequences of Britain's vote to leave the European Union, the Arab Spring has repeatedly been invoked.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, as it is tempting to see last week's vote as the moment the "British street" finally had enough and rose up against an unelected regime – with disastrous consequences.
The Arab Spring analogy holds attractions for both sides, those who voted to leave the EU and those who voted to remain.
For Leavers, the vote was a revolutionary moment, when ordinary people stood up against the establishment and took their power back.
For Remainers, these revolutionaries unnecessarily demonised the existing order, shattering a functional if imperfect system with no real plan in place for what would come next. Both, of course, expect the old order to battle to restore itself, as it did in the Arab Spring countries.
There are, in fact, parallels between Brexit and the Arab Spring, though the comparison can be overdone. But most comparisons are imperfect because they either misrepresent what the Arab Spring was, or what the Brexit vote is.
Start with the leadership. Far from being a spontaneous uprising, as the Arab Spring revolutions in Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen, Libya and Syria were, the Brexit vote was a carefully planned, well-led political movement.
In fact, the crucial difference between the two is that the political leadership of the Arab Spring came after the revolutions, not before.
In the aftermath of the revolutions, Ennahda in Tunisia, the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and the various groups in Libya and Yemen jockeying for position emerged. But they did not lead the protesters. The Arab Spring was a revolution in need of leadership, while the Brexit debate was a political question that later found mass acceptance.
That makes the argument that both sets of “revolutionaries” ought to have had a plan in place irrelevant. The Arab Spring protesters could not have had a plan in place – because no one could have foreseen that the spontaneous uprising against a regime would work and would bring down the system.
By contrast, the Leave campaign in the UK had months, even years, to prepare a detailed plan for what might happen after, and did not.
It is certainly true that both the Leave vote and the Arab Spring set in motion forces that could not be contained – and that some involved in both events came to regret their outcomes. But in the case of the Arab Spring that cannot be blamed on the protesters, because the demonstrations were initially leaderless.
Where there is a parallel between the two events, it is this. In both the Arab republics and the UK, successive governments ignored the periphery in favour of the heartland. When those who were excluded finally saw a chance to overthrow the system that had harmed them, they took it, regardless of the consequences.
Where the “heartland” and “periphery” were located varied: in Egypt, the heartland was the political and military elite; in Syria, it was an Alawite core, surrounded by Sunni Muslim and Christian supporters. In the UK, the “periphery” was working-class Labour supporters and middle-class Conservative supporters, both of whom had their concerns minimised and ignored over many years.
The reason the Arab republics had mass uprisings was that the “periphery”, the number of people ignored and marginalised by the regimes, was enormous, vast constituencies of the population.
(This analogy, of course, only applies before the Arab uprisings turned violent. Once the regimes used the forces of the state against the bodies of the protesters, the uprisings turned armed and violent – as, certainly in Syria, the state violence was designed to ensure that they did.)
In some ways, it can seem flippant to compare the two. The UK has just had the largest democratic exercise in its history. The vote to Leave is a revolution in name only. The Arab Spring uprisings are, on the other hand, true revolutions – unpredictable attempts to overthrow regimes, with brutal responses.
Yet both events will have vast consequences. Just as the Arab Spring affected the Middle East and then Europe, so any collapse of the European project will very swiftly find its way to the Middle East.
If the Arab Spring demonstrated anything, it is that countries are too intimately connected for political troubles to be demarcated by borders. Despite what some of those who voted Leave seem to think, problems on one part of a continent inevitably find their way to another – no matter how high the walls are built.
falyafai@thenational.ae
On Twitter: @FaisalAlYafai
Company Profile
Name: Thndr
Started: 2019
Co-founders: Ahmad Hammouda and Seif Amr
Sector: FinTech
Headquarters: Egypt
UAE base: Hub71, Abu Dhabi
Current number of staff: More than 150
Funds raised: $22 million
Indoor cricket in a nutshell
Indoor Cricket World Cup - Sept 16-20, Insportz, Dubai
16 Indoor cricket matches are 16 overs per side
8 There are eight players per team
9 There have been nine Indoor Cricket World Cups for men. Australia have won every one.
5 Five runs are deducted from the score when a wickets falls
4 Batsmen bat in pairs, facing four overs per partnership
Scoring In indoor cricket, runs are scored by way of both physical and bonus runs. Physical runs are scored by both batsmen completing a run from one crease to the other. Bonus runs are scored when the ball hits a net in different zones, but only when at least one physical run is score.
Zones
A Front net, behind the striker and wicketkeeper: 0 runs
B Side nets, between the striker and halfway down the pitch: 1 run
C Side nets between halfway and the bowlers end: 2 runs
D Back net: 4 runs on the bounce, 6 runs on the full
The%20Specs
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Our legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants
The specs
Engine: 3.8-litre twin-turbo V8
Power: 611bhp
Torque: 620Nm
Transmission: seven-speed automatic
Price: upon application
On sale: now
Israel Palestine on Swedish TV 1958-1989
Director: Goran Hugo Olsson
Rating: 5/5
SANCTIONED
- Kirill Shamalov, Russia's youngest billionaire and previously married to Putin's daughter Katarina
- Petr Fradkov, head of recently sanctioned Promsvyazbank and son of former head of Russian Foreign Intelligence, the FSB.
- Denis Bortnikov, Deputy President of Russia's largest bank VTB. He is the son of Alexander Bortnikov, head of the FSB which was responsible for the poisoning of political activist Alexey Navalny in August 2020 with banned chemical agent novichok.
- Yury Slyusar, director of United Aircraft Corporation, a major aircraft manufacturer for the Russian military.
- Elena Aleksandrovna Georgieva, chair of the board of Novikombank, a state-owned defence conglomerate.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Emirates Cricket Board Women’s T10
ECB Hawks v ECB Falcons
Monday, April 6, 7.30pm, Sharjah Cricket Stadium
The match will be broadcast live on the My Sports Eye Facebook page
Hawks
Coach: Chaitrali Kalgutkar
Squad: Chaya Mughal (captain), Archara Supriya, Chamani Senevirathne, Chathurika Anand, Geethika Jyothis, Indhuja Nandakumar, Kashish Loungani, Khushi Sharma, Khushi Tanwar, Rinitha Rajith, Siddhi Pagarani, Siya Gokhale, Subha Srinivasan, Suraksha Kotte, Theertha Satish
Falcons
Coach: Najeeb Amar
Squad: Kavisha Kumari (captain), Almaseera Jahangir, Annika Shivpuri, Archisha Mukherjee, Judit Cleetus, Ishani Senavirathne, Lavanya Keny, Mahika Gaur, Malavika Unnithan, Rishitha Rajith, Rithika Rajith, Samaira Dharnidharka, Shashini Kaluarachchi, Udeni Kuruppuarachchi, Vaishnave Mahesh
RESULTS
Cagliari 5-2 Fiorentina
Udinese 0-0 SPAL
Sampdoria 0-0 Atalanta
Lazio 4-2 Lecce
Parma 2-0 Roma
Juventus 1-0 AC Milan
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
Cinco in numbers
Dh3.7 million
The estimated cost of Victoria Swarovski’s gem-encrusted Michael Cinco wedding gown
46
The number, in kilograms, that Swarovski’s wedding gown weighed.
1,000
The hours it took to create Cinco’s vermillion petal gown, as seen in his atelier [note, is the one he’s playing with in the corner of a room]
50
How many looks Cinco has created in a new collection to celebrate Ballet Philippines’ 50th birthday
3,000
The hours needed to create the butterfly gown worn by Aishwarya Rai to the 2018 Cannes Film Festival.
1.1 million
The number of followers that Michael Cinco’s Instagram account has garnered.
Company%20profile
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Greatest of All Time
Starring: Vijay, Sneha, Prashanth, Prabhu Deva, Mohan
SPECS
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