For some time, it has been obvious that the United Nations' plan for Syria is a dead letter. As the regime of Bashar Al Assad has regained territory, all talk of transferring power away from the Syrian president, the cornerstone of the UN plan, has become pointless. However, Mr Al Assad's hold on power remains vulnerable while foreign forces remain on Syrian territory and the reconstruction of the country looms large.
Two foreign states opposed to Bashar Al Assad, the US and Turkey, can potentially have a major influence on what happens in Syria. For that to happen, however, both will need to move beyond their differences and co-ordinate their policies against Mr Al Assad. This is by no means guaranteed, as each side is pursuing very different objectives there.
Turkey has occupied a large portion of northern Syria through its Euphrates Shield and Olive Branch military operations, as well as its intervention in Idlib. Ankara also has control over several million Syrians, between the inhabitants of the areas it controls, refugees and internally displaced people. While the Turks have participated in the Astana negotiations, any disintegration of this process and a return to conflict would leave it with significant leverage in Syria.
The US, in turn, is present in north-eastern Syria, particularly in Al Hasakah Governorate, where the borders of Syria, Turkey and Iraq meet. Its influence stretches down to the middle of the Euphrates valley, with an outpost in Al Tanf in Syria’s south-east, on the road between Damascus and Baghdad. A number of those areas are where Syrian oil is produced, so as long as US forces remain there, they will deny Mr Al Assad a major revenue source.
Yet the obstacles that the US and Turkey face are far from negligible. To begin with, both sides have been opposed when it comes to Syrian Kurdish forces, which Ankara would like to neutralise militarily and keep away, as far as possible, from Kurds in Turkey. The US, in turn, views Kurdish forces as a key ally in preventing the return of ISIS to Syria and has not taken kindly to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s vow to deploy his army to the Iraqi border.
To ease tensions with Turkey, the Americans announced last week that they would be placing observation posts in northern Syria to help secure the Turkish border. The implication was that the US wants to ensure that the Kurds will not challenge Turkish red lines in the area. Yet it is equally true that by creating these positions, the Americans are also drawing a line against any Turkish incursion into those parts of Syria against the Kurds. They fear this might draw Kurdish forces away from the middle Euphrates valley where they are fighting ISIS.
Turkey also has to face an uncertain security situation in the areas it governs in Syria and is reluctant to take steps that might undermine its relations with Russia, with whom it is participating in the Astana process. That is one reason why the Russians have tiptoed around Turkey in Idlib, because they too want to avoid a break with Ankara, which could seriously damage their efforts to consolidate an emerging regional consensus around Mr Al Assad's rule.
______________
Read more on Syria:
New face of security gives Syrians little hope of protection
Trapped between Turkey and the Assad regime, Syrian Kurds are now being squeezed by the US
Iran's insidious infiltration of Syria will be impossible for the US to disentangle
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Yet where the US and Turkey can be effective is in jointly defining their aims in Syria and pushing more strongly for the departure of the Syrian leader. Russia would not be able to ignore US-Turkish actions on that front. That is why Russian President Vladimir Putin has been so keen to secure funding from European states for post-war reconstruction, hoping that if he can get such pledges, it would offset US and Turkish pressures against the regime.
In many ways, the tangled interests in Syria are a Mexican stand-off, with each side pointing a gun at the other. This will shape the possible outcomes. Turkey and the US might raise the heat for Mr Al Assad’s departure but all that might do is exacerbate the stalemate that perpetuates the refugee crisis. The Syrian regime, in turn, can take maximalist positions but that would only encourage Washington and Ankara to ensure that no funding goes to reconstruction, which will hurt Mr Al Assad.
That is why the US must consider entering the negotiations over Syria, in collaboration with Turkey and after having agreed common objectives with regard to the Assad regime. Only by doing so would the two sides be able to better affect the political outcome in Syria and engage with Russia over this while perhaps marginalising Iran. Now is the time to move talks over Syria to a stage where the major adversaries of Mr Al Assad can also negotiate an endgame.
That will not be easy and the Syrian regime, Russia and Iran have the latitude to make life difficult for the Turks and the Americans. However, it is equally true that in comparing strengths, the Americans and Turks are nearly as strong as the Syrian regime’s allies. Moreover, Russia will be cautious before ruining its careful plans to bolster Mr Al Assad. For the US and Turkey to make headway in Syria, they have to agree a common strategy that transcends their previous disagreements.
Michael Young is editor of Diwan, the blog of the Carnegie Middle East programme, in Beirut
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SPECS
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Blackpink World Tour [Born Pink] In Cinemas
Starring: Rose, Jisoo, Jennie, Lisa
Directors: Min Geun, Oh Yoon-Dong
Rating: 3/5
The specs
Engine: 2.7-litre 4-cylinder Turbomax
Power: 310hp
Torque: 583Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh192,500
On sale: Now
Company%20Profile
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if you go
The flights
Etihad and Emirates fly direct from the UAE to Seoul from Dh3,775 return, including taxes
The package
Ski Safari offers a seven-night ski package to Korea, including five nights at the Dragon Valley Hotel in Yongpyong and two nights at Seoul CenterMark hotel, from £720 (Dh3,488) per person, including transfers, based on two travelling in January
The info
Visit www.gokorea.co.uk
The BIO:
He became the first Emirati to climb Mount Everest in 2011, from the south section in Nepal
He ascended Mount Everest the next year from the more treacherous north Tibetan side
By 2015, he had completed the Explorers Grand Slam
Last year, he conquered K2, the world’s second-highest mountain located on the Pakistan-Chinese border
He carries dried camel meat, dried dates and a wheat mixture for the final summit push
His new goal is to climb 14 peaks that are more than 8,000 metres above sea level
TRAP
Starring: Josh Hartnett, Saleka Shyamalan, Ariel Donaghue
Director: M Night Shyamalan
Rating: 3/5
Abdul Jabar Qahraman was meeting supporters in his campaign office in the southern Afghan province of Helmand when a bomb hidden under a sofa exploded on Wednesday.
The blast in the provincial capital Lashkar Gah killed the Afghan election candidate and at least another three people, Interior Minister Wais Ahmad Barmak told reporters. Another three were wounded, while three suspects were detained, he said.
The Taliban – which controls much of Helmand and has vowed to disrupt the October 20 parliamentary elections – claimed responsibility for the attack.
Mr Qahraman was at least the 10th candidate killed so far during the campaign season, and the second from Lashkar Gah this month. Another candidate, Saleh Mohammad Asikzai, was among eight people killed in a suicide attack last week. Most of the slain candidates were murdered in targeted assassinations, including Avtar Singh Khalsa, the first Afghan Sikh to run for the lower house of the parliament.
The same week the Taliban warned candidates to withdraw from the elections. On Wednesday the group issued fresh warnings, calling on educational workers to stop schools from being used as polling centres.
Dubai works towards better air quality by 2021
Dubai is on a mission to record good air quality for 90 per cent of the year – up from 86 per cent annually today – by 2021.
The municipality plans to have seven mobile air-monitoring stations by 2020 to capture more accurate data in hourly and daily trends of pollution.
These will be on the Palm Jumeirah, Al Qusais, Muhaisnah, Rashidiyah, Al Wasl, Al Quoz and Dubai Investment Park.
“It will allow real-time responding for emergency cases,” said Khaldoon Al Daraji, first environment safety officer at the municipality.
“We’re in a good position except for the cases that are out of our hands, such as sandstorms.
“Sandstorms are our main concern because the UAE is just a receiver.
“The hotspots are Iran, Saudi Arabia and southern Iraq, but we’re working hard with the region to reduce the cycle of sandstorm generation.”
Mr Al Daraji said monitoring as it stood covered 47 per cent of Dubai.
There are 12 fixed stations in the emirate, but Dubai also receives information from monitors belonging to other entities.
“There are 25 stations in total,” Mr Al Daraji said.
“We added new technology and equipment used for the first time for the detection of heavy metals.
“A hundred parameters can be detected but we want to expand it to make sure that the data captured can allow a baseline study in some areas to ensure they are well positioned.”
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MATCH INFO
Karnatake Tuskers 114-1 (10 ovs)
Charles 57, Amla 47
Bangla Tigers 117-5 (8.5 ovs)
Fletcher 40, Moores 28 no, Lamichhane 2-9
Bangla Tiger win by five wickets
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Company%20Profile
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Voy!%20Voy!%20Voy!
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Destroyer
Director: Karyn Kusama
Cast: Nicole Kidman, Toby Kebbell, Sebastian Stan
Rating: 3/5
UAE release: January 31
Company%20Profile
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How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
Company%20Profile
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MATCH INFO
Liverpool 2 (Van Dijk 18', 24')
Brighton 1 (Dunk 79')
Red card: Alisson (Liverpool)
Kill%20
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Israel Palestine on Swedish TV 1958-1989
Director: Goran Hugo Olsson
Rating: 5/5
BORDERLANDS
Starring: Cate Blanchett, Kevin Hart, Jamie Lee Curtis
Director: Eli Roth
Rating: 0/5
Essentials
The flights
Emirates, Etihad and Malaysia Airlines all fly direct from the UAE to Kuala Lumpur and on to Penang from about Dh2,300 return, including taxes.
Where to stay
In Kuala Lumpur, Element is a recently opened, futuristic hotel high up in a Norman Foster-designed skyscraper. Rooms cost from Dh400 per night, including taxes. Hotel Stripes, also in KL, is a great value design hotel, with an infinity rooftop pool. Rooms cost from Dh310, including taxes.
In Penang, Ren i Tang is a boutique b&b in what was once an ancient Chinese Medicine Hall in the centre of Little India. Rooms cost from Dh220, including taxes.
23 Love Lane in Penang is a luxury boutique heritage hotel in a converted mansion, with private tropical gardens. Rooms cost from Dh400, including taxes.
In Langkawi, Temple Tree is a unique architectural villa hotel consisting of antique houses from all across Malaysia. Rooms cost from Dh350, including taxes.