Since the forces of ISIL captured Mosul in 2014 and declared a so-called caliphate, the United States has had a laser-like focus on defeating Salafi extremists in Iraq and Syria. All means were good to this end, even co-operating with Shia militias beholden to Iran in the fight to reconquer Mosul.
Now that this goal is all but achieved, Washington’s attention is shifting towards Iran and in particular the gains it has made during the battle against ISIL – a strengthened position in Syria, support for the Houthis in Yemen and a growing ballistic missile arsenal.
Speaking in Washington on Tuesday, General Joseph Votel, commander of US Central Command which covers the Middle East, said Iran had "extended its tentacles across the region through numerous proxies". On Yemen, he said: "What it took 20 years for Iran to do in Lebanon with the Lebanese Hezbollah, they're attempting to do in about five years with the Houthis."
His comments build on remarks made earlier by the US National Security Adviser, General HR McMaster, who said: “The time is now, we think, to act against Iran.”
But what did Gen McMaster mean by this ominous threat? The goal is clear but the roadmap is not so easy to figure out.
Gen Votel, in his testimony to the house armed services committee, was evasive on the role of the US military in countering Iran. He said this was not a military objective in Syria but he acknowledged it was a “broad US objective”.
This lack of clarity might be put down to the confusion which surrounds some aspects of foreign policymaking in the White House, where the president’s advisers often do not share his world view. But that is not the case with Iran. The military men around the president are, by experience, deeply sceptical of Iran and share his strategic goal.
In the words of Bruce Jones, a foreign policy expert at the Brookings Institution in Washington, this is an “overarching strategy of containing, pushing and eventually fighting with Iran”.
One result of this shared strategy is that Donald Trump's campaign promise to end Middle Eastern entanglements has been ditched in favour of a commitment to stay in Syria to counter Iran, or specifically what Rex Tillerson, US Secretary of State, has called its "dreams of a northern arch" to Lebanon. This is likely to lead to a creeping escalation of the US security presence in the region.
But the tactics towards Iran are a different matter. The president and his team do not agree on the issue of the moment, the future of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal which Mr Trump inherited from Barack Obama.
A second issue is that Russia is using its veto power at the UN Security Council to protect Iran. It vetoed a resolution which condemned Iran for supplying missiles to the Houthis and called for action against Tehran for breaching the arms embargo. The resolution was strongly supported by Lana Nusseibeh, UAE Permanent Representative to the UN, as a way to stop further proliferation of missile technology around the region to Iran's clients.
Whatever the reason for the veto, it presents the US with a complicated diplomatic and military framework in which to set about containing Iranian expansion.
Mr Trump’s immediate concern is how to follow through on his promise to withdraw from the Iran nuclear agreement, known as the JCPOA or Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which he has called “the worst deal ever”. His advisers do not think it perfect but it is worth preserving because nothing better is available. It offers Iran relief from sanctions in exchange for limiting aspects of its nuclear programme for 10 or 15 years and a promise never to develop or acquire nuclear weapons.
Mr Trump has set the clock ticking over the JCPOA, demanding an end to these “sunset clauses” and the addition of limits on Iranian ballistic missile development, which is not part of the deal. He has delivered an ultimatum to the European powers which helped to negotiate the nuclear deal – Britain, France and Germany – to “fix the terrible flaws” in it. If they fail, in May he will stop issuing the regular waivers on US sanctions. This will lead to the re-imposition of US sanctions on Iran.
These are deep diplomatic waters. The Iranians have been following to the letter the terms of the nuclear deal, as regularly attested by inspectors of the International Atomic Energy Agency.
For the moment, the Europeans are wrestling with Mr Trump’s demand that they commit to continuing to restrain any nuclear weapons development by Iran after the “sunset clauses” take effect. The idea is that Mr Trump could be presented with an extension of the deal outside its terms. Such a diplomatic manoeuvre is legally possible but it is not clear if that would be enough to satisfy Mr Trump.
For all the weaknesses of the nuclear deal, there are strong diplomatic reasons for the US not to withdraw from it: it would set a precedent for a US president to go back on the signature of the previous administration, which would surely be used by North Korea as a justification for maintaining a nuclear arsenal. It would also undermine the current basis for controlling the spread of nuclear weapons by showing that Washington does not trust the UN and its agencies to enforce it.
The regime of international sanctions against Iran – apart from those imposed by the US – would be impossible to enforce. There would be a free-for-all, to the advantage of Iran.
Iran has hinted that it would pull out of the deal if the US undermines it. But these hints may be grandstanding. If the Americans pull out, Tehran thinks it could cause more damage to US prestige and power by staying in the JCPOA with Russia, China and perhaps the Europeans.
There is indeed an urgent need to contain Iranian expansion, but the call to action by Gen McMaster hides the fact that the US is still searching for a way to achieve this. It will no doubt be an effort which will be much longer than it took to root out ISIL.
SPECS
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The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre 4-cylinder petrol
Power: 154bhp
Torque: 250Nm
Transmission: 7-speed automatic with 8-speed sports option
Price: From Dh79,600
On sale: Now
Best Academy: Ajax and Benfica
Best Agent: Jorge Mendes
Best Club : Liverpool
Best Coach: Jurgen Klopp (Liverpool)
Best Goalkeeper: Alisson Becker
Best Men’s Player: Cristiano Ronaldo
Best Partnership of the Year Award by SportBusiness: Manchester City and SAP
Best Referee: Stephanie Frappart
Best Revelation Player: Joao Felix (Atletico Madrid and Portugal)
Best Sporting Director: Andrea Berta (Atletico Madrid)
Best Women's Player: Lucy Bronze
Best Young Arab Player: Achraf Hakimi
Kooora – Best Arab Club: Al Hilal (Saudi Arabia)
Kooora – Best Arab Player: Abderrazak Hamdallah (Al-Nassr FC, Saudi Arabia)
Player Career Award: Miralem Pjanic and Ryan Giggs
Book%20Details
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FIXTURES
December 28
Stan Wawrinka v Pablo Carreno Busta, 5pm
Milos Raonic v Dominic Thiem, no earlier then 7pm
December 29 - semi-finals
Rafael Nadal v Stan Wawrinka / Pablo Carreno Busta, 5pm
Novak Djokovic v Milos Raonic / Dominic Thiem, no earlier then 7pm
December 30
3rd/4th place play-off, 5pm
Final, 7pm
Company%20profile
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Feeding the thousands for iftar
Six industrial scale vats of 500litres each are used to cook the kanji or broth
Each vat contains kanji or porridge to feed 1,000 people
The rice porridge is poured into a 500ml plastic box
350 plastic tubs are placed in one container trolley
Each aluminium container trolley weighing 300kg is unloaded by a small crane fitted on a truck
The specs: 2019 Mercedes-Benz C200 Coupe
Price, base: Dh201,153
Engine: 2.0-litre turbocharged four-cylinder
Transmission: Nine-speed automatic
Power: 204hp @ 5,800rpm
Torque: 300Nm @ 1,600rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 6.7L / 100km
Salah in numbers
€39 million: Liverpool agreed a fee, including add-ons, in the region of €39m (nearly Dh176m) to sign Salah from Roma last year. The exchange rate at the time meant that cost the Reds £34.3m - a bargain given his performances since.
13: The 25-year-old player was not a complete stranger to the Premier League when he arrived at Liverpool this summer. However, during his previous stint at Chelsea, he made just 13 Premier League appearances, seven of which were off the bench, and scored only twice.
57: It was in the 57th minute of his Liverpool bow when Salah opened his account for the Reds in the 3-3 draw with Watford back in August. The Egyptian prodded the ball over the line from close range after latching onto Roberto Firmino's attempted lob.
7: Salah's best scoring streak of the season occurred between an FA Cup tie against West Brom on January 27 and a Premier League win over Newcastle on March 3. He scored for seven games running in all competitions and struck twice against Tottenham.
3: This season Salah became the first player in Premier League history to win the player of the month award three times during a term. He was voted as the division's best player in November, February and March.
40: Salah joined Roger Hunt and Ian Rush as the only players in Liverpool's history to have scored 40 times in a single season when he headed home against Bournemouth at Anfield earlier this month.
30: The goal against Bournemouth ensured the Egyptian achieved another milestone in becoming the first African player to score 30 times across one Premier League campaign.
8: As well as his fine form in England, Salah has also scored eight times in the tournament phase of this season's Champions League. Only Real Madrid's Cristiano Ronaldo, with 15 to his credit, has found the net more often in the group stages and knockout rounds of Europe's premier club competition.
SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20NOTHING%20PHONE%20(2)
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How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
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BEETLEJUICE BEETLEJUICE
Starring: Winona Ryder, Michael Keaton, Jenny Ortega
Director: Tim Burton
Rating: 3/5
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Blackpink World Tour [Born Pink] In Cinemas
Starring: Rose, Jisoo, Jennie, Lisa
Directors: Min Geun, Oh Yoon-Dong
Rating: 3/5
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Greatest of All Time
Starring: Vijay, Sneha, Prashanth, Prabhu Deva, Mohan
THE BIO:
Sabri Razouk, 74
Athlete and fitness trainer
Married, father of six
Favourite exercise: Bench press
Must-eat weekly meal: Steak with beans, carrots, broccoli, crust and corn
Power drink: A glass of yoghurt
Role model: Any good man
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The five pillars of Islam