In Syria, 2018 was the year the final embers of revolution against Bashar Al Assad were extinguished.
With the backing of Moscow and Tehran, the regime clawed back more territory from a faltering and disorganised rebellion, secured Damascus, and won a crucial diplomatic victory in the form of normalisation by Arab governments.
It was handed another pivotal win by Donald Trump, who last month cast aside by tweet his own administration’s carefully laid plans to build up the US presence in eastern Syria as a counterweight to Iran and to bolster western leverage in peace talks. The US would retreat from the region, leaving Russia, Turkey and Iran to sort out the shape of a final settlement, Mr Trump said.
But let’s back up for a minute and look at some of the key events that shaped the conflict, now nearing its eighth year.
In April, Mr Al Assad's forces wrested control of the Damascus suburbs of eastern Ghouta after a punishing siege, more than 2,000 casualties, and a campaign targeting rescue workers and medical facilities. The regime capped the months-long bombardment with a chemical attack that killed dozens of civilians in Douma, provoking western airstrikes that meted out little real punishment.
Thousands were exiled to Idlib, in the north, which remained the sole province under rebel control by year’s end. Thousands of others chose to stay and reconcile with the government.
That victory secured Damascus from rebel attacks, a feat solidified by another swift campaign from mid-June to late July that reclaimed Daraa, the birthplace of the uprising in March 2011. The southern province fell with ease in the face of the Russian-backed assault, dealing another crippling and symbolic blow to anti-regime forces.
Mr Al Assad's control over the Jordanian border led to the reopening of the Nassib crossing in mid-October and the resumption of trade with Amman, a step that heralded further normalisation with Arab powers keen to have a say in Syria's future and to limit Mr Al Assad's dependency on Iran. Both Bahrain and the UAE later reopened their embassies in Damascus and the Arab League is now likely to readmit Syria.
Despite threatening to attack Idlib, a campaign that would have led to the largest humanitarian catastrophe in a war that has killed half a million people, Russia and Turkey came to an understanding that suspended the offensive. In January, Ankara signalled once again that its key priority is limiting Kurdish influence at its border, by invading and ousting Kurdish militias from the border region of Afrin, a campaign undertaken with Russia’s permission.
All the while, peace talks under the auspices of the UN have remained irrelevant, upended by those that have taken place between the three powers with an extensive presence on the ground: Russia, Turkey and Iran. Plans to convene a constitutional committee to draft Syria’s post-war charter faltered, but the project itself is likely to survive as part of a watered-down transition plan to satisfy European powers and pave the way for reconstruction aid, and a stake in Syria’s future for the West.
Trump’s shock announcement that he would soon withdraw from Syria removed what little western leverage existed there and destroyed months of build-up for what was believed to be a long-term US presence.
It has instead unleashed a race among regional powers to position themselves within the confines of a post-American Middle East. Moscow, which has long spearheaded the effort to maintain Mr Al Assad and the Syrian regime’s international respectability, has found common cause with Arab countries seeking to limit the influence of Iran, which has increasingly been seen as having a competing vision for post-war Syria with Moscow. Efforts to wean Mr Al Assad’s Syria from Iran have failed in the past, but they appear to be the motivation for this new drive towards regional recognition.
The revolution, meanwhile, has lost its voice. Beset by competing agendas and an international community that has done little to stem the violence beyond theatrical pronouncements at the UN Security Council, it fell to a brutal military campaign from without, and disunity, corruption and the strength of jihadist militias from within. Militants assassinated the well-known activist Raed Fares and his friend Hammud Al Junayd in November. Most jihadist groups that still have military capabilities are beholden to Turkey, puppets whose master now barely attempts to hide the strings.
As 2019 begins, Mr Al Assad has won, his military victories burnished by growing international acceptance that he will remain in power, and nurtured by Russia’s success in normalising his tyranny. The voices that once called for freedom and dignity in Syria, for an end to repression at the hands of the regime’s security services, for an accounting of the fates of political detainees, have quietened and will grow quieter still.
The flames of war will die down, offering many some respite from their suffering and the hope of normal life resuming. But the dream that propelled so many Syrians out on those peaceful demonstrations eight years ago is further away than ever.
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How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
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Blackpink World Tour [Born Pink] In Cinemas
Starring: Rose, Jisoo, Jennie, Lisa
Directors: Min Geun, Oh Yoon-Dong
Rating: 3/5
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Israel Palestine on Swedish TV 1958-1989
Director: Goran Hugo Olsson
Rating: 5/5
Russia's Muslim Heartlands
Dominic Rubin, Oxford
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The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre four-cylinder turbo
Power: 268hp at 5,600rpm
Torque: 380Nm at 4,800rpm
Transmission: CVT auto
Fuel consumption: 9.5L/100km
On sale: now
Price: from Dh195,000
The specs
Engine: 2-litre or 3-litre 4Motion all-wheel-drive Power: 250Nm (2-litre); 340 (3-litre) Torque: 450Nm Transmission: 8-speed automatic Starting price: From Dh212,000 On sale: Now
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The specs
Engine: 2.7-litre 4-cylinder Turbomax
Power: 310hp
Torque: 583Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh192,500
On sale: Now
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if you go
The flights
Emirates fly direct from Dubai to Houston, Texas, where United have direct flights to Managua. Alternatively, from October, Iberia will offer connections from Madrid, which can be reached by both Etihad from Abu Dhabi and Emirates from Dubai.
The trip
Geodyssey’s (Geodyssey.co.uk) 15-night Nicaragua Odyssey visits the colonial cities of Leon and Granada, lively country villages, the lake island of Ometepe and a stunning array of landscapes, with wildlife, history, creative crafts and more. From Dh18,500 per person, based on two sharing, including transfers and tours but excluding international flights. For more information, visit visitnicaragua.us.
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Xpanceo
Started: 2018
Founders: Roman Axelrod, Valentyn Volkov
Based: Dubai, UAE
Industry: Smart contact lenses, augmented/virtual reality
Funding: $40 million
Investor: Opportunity Venture (Asia)
The Perfect Couple
Starring: Nicole Kidman, Liev Schreiber, Jack Reynor
Creator: Jenna Lamia
Rating: 3/5
How the UAE gratuity payment is calculated now
Employees leaving an organisation are entitled to an end-of-service gratuity after completing at least one year of service.
The tenure is calculated on the number of days worked and does not include lengthy leave periods, such as a sabbatical. If you have worked for a company between one and five years, you are paid 21 days of pay based on your final basic salary. After five years, however, you are entitled to 30 days of pay. The total lump sum you receive is based on the duration of your employment.
1. For those who have worked between one and five years, on a basic salary of Dh10,000 (calculation based on 30 days):
a. Dh10,000 ÷ 30 = Dh333.33. Your daily wage is Dh333.33
b. Dh333.33 x 21 = Dh7,000. So 21 days salary equates to Dh7,000 in gratuity entitlement for each year of service. Multiply this figure for every year of service up to five years.
2. For those who have worked more than five years
c. 333.33 x 30 = Dh10,000. So 30 days’ salary is Dh10,000 in gratuity entitlement for each year of service.
Note: The maximum figure cannot exceed two years total salary figure.
BORDERLANDS
Starring: Cate Blanchett, Kevin Hart, Jamie Lee Curtis
Director: Eli Roth
Rating: 0/5
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