In two months’ time Americans will vote in mid-term elections for Congress, which could have a decisive effect on the final two years of Donald Trump’s presidency. With the passing of the Labour Day holiday on Monday, campaigning has moved from the background to the top of the news agenda.
As a general rule, the party of the incumbent president tends to lose seats in the mid-term elections, often harming the White House’s ability to pass legislation. But this time the stakes are higher. If the Republicans lose control of the House of Representatives, the lower chamber of Congress, it would bring impeachment of the president – currently a political impossibility – into the realm of practicality for the Democrats.
Into this fevered atmosphere Bob Woodward, the star newspaperman whose reporting brought down Richard Nixon in the 1970s, has thrust a new book, Fear, which paints an even more damning portrait of the Trump White House than earlier volumes of this uniquely Washington genre.
The White House is “crazytown” (according to Chief of Staff John Kelly), a “zoo without walls” (former chief of staff Reince Priebus) and a place where staff are conducting a permanent “administrative coup d’etat” to frustrate the president’s dangerous impulses (Mr Woodward himself).
Mr Trump has dismissed the book as fiction, while suggesting that it is timed to help the Democrats in the election campaign. Some key staffers have issued pro forma denials that they ever said what they are quoted as saying.
One can imagine that some dismissed staffers might have wanted to use Mr Woodward to get their revenge on the president. (Mr Priebus is said to have been described by Mr Trump as a “rat” scurrying around the White House.)
What emerges most clearly is Mr Trump’s contempt for the mainstream views of the military and the intelligence services. Mr Trump asks, for instance, what is the point of spending money to defend South Korea? Defence Secretary James Mattis replies, “To prevent World War Three”, later likening the president’s grasp of national security matters to that of a “fifth or sixth grader”.
True or not, Mr Trump believes he was elected to challenge and disrupt the old ways of Washington thinking. Even his predecessor, Barack Obama, railed against the bellicose, group-think instincts of the US foreign policy establishment, albeit at a rather more academic level.
Other books have presented a similarly dysfunctional portrait of an administration in crisis. The use of “deep background” interviews, of which the source can never be identified, is always open to criticism. But Mr Woodward has plenty of experience in this kind of reporting and is widely praised for playing with a straight bat, even in the past by Mr Trump himself.
It is usually said that Mr Trump's voters tune out critical news about him, dismissing it as part of a witch hunt organised by the defeated liberal establishment. But polling analyst Nate Silver cautions against believing that Republican voters are unaffected by the Robert Mueller investigation into the president's alleged collusion with Russia to win the 2016 election and the misdeeds of his inner circle, which have been brought to light as a result.
Pollsters note that Mr Trump’s approval rating has sunk to 40.1 per cent, against 54.1 percent who disapprove, following news that his lawyer, Michael Cohen, has pleaded guilty to illegal campaign finance contributions and his former campaign chief, Paul Manafort, has been convicted of tax fraud.
These numbers are not a promising springboard for the mid-term elections. In order to win the House of Representatives, the Democrats need to retain all their 194 seats and flip 24 which are Republican-held. Mr Silver argues that a Democratic lead of 5-6 per cent – which would usually be a handsome margin of victory – may not be enough to win. It might require a margin of 9-10 per cent.
A further reason for caution is that the Democratic Party, which should be in a strong position to poach the votes of anti-Trump conservatives, is moving ever farther to the left, energised by a youthful base that no longer sees socialism as a dirty word. This might make the party feel good but it is not a recipe for success in attracting voters from the right. If the Republicans can portray the Democrats as overly-focused on racial justice and gay rights, their poll numbers could be reduced.
Democrats taking the House would upend the political calculations of the Trump presidency. The House can start impeachment proceedings against the president with a simple majority. It is then up to the Senate to try the president, but that requires a two-thirds majority – a high bar to pass.
Given that the Democrats’ chances of taking control of the Senate are slim, a successful impeachment would require a large number of Republican votes, which would only be forthcoming if Mr Mueller finds indisputable evidence of “treason, bribery, or other high crimes and misdemeanours”. There is no sign of that kind of proof so far.
But that does not mean that the Mueller investigation will go away. According to the Woodward book, Mr Trump's former lawyer, John Dowd, arranged a rehearsal of a meeting with Mr Mueller to test whether the president would incriminate himself. Mr Trump believed he would be a convincing witness but his lawyer later told him he would end up in an orange jumpsuit if he did.
So the President will most likely one day refuse to speak to the investigator, an act which tends to make the suspect look guilty.
In the end Mr Trump might survive the investigation. But the impact on him and his feeling of being surrounded by enemies is plain to see. Mr Woodward recounts one phone call with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi, who said: “Donald, I’m worried about this investigation. Are you going to be around?”
The question must be on the minds of many other foreign leaders, most visibly in the cautious attitude of the Russian President, Vladimir Putin. Suffice to say, the next two months should provide some clarity.
Nick's journey in numbers
Countries so far: 85
Flights: 149
Steps: 3.78 million
Calories: 220,000
Floors climbed: 2,000
Donations: GPB37,300
Prostate checks: 5
Blisters: 15
Bumps on the head: 2
Dog bites: 1
Copa del Rey final
Sevilla v Barcelona, Saturday, 11.30pm (UAE), match on Bein Sports
Dengue%20fever%20symptoms
%3Cp%3EHigh%20fever%20(40%C2%B0C%2F104%C2%B0F)%3Cbr%3ESevere%20headache%3Cbr%3EPain%20behind%20the%20eyes%3Cbr%3EMuscle%20and%20joint%20pains%3Cbr%3ENausea%3Cbr%3EVomiting%3Cbr%3ESwollen%20glands%3Cbr%3ERash%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
'Morbius'
Director: Daniel Espinosa
Stars: Jared Leto, Matt Smith, Adria Arjona
Rating: 2/5
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BEETLEJUICE BEETLEJUICE
Starring: Winona Ryder, Michael Keaton, Jenny Ortega
Director: Tim Burton
Rating: 3/5
SPECS
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Israel Palestine on Swedish TV 1958-1989
Director: Goran Hugo Olsson
Rating: 5/5
Company%20Profile
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Company%20Profile
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TCL INFO
Teams:
Punjabi Legends Owners: Inzamam-ul-Haq and Intizar-ul-Haq; Key player: Misbah-ul-Haq
Pakhtoons Owners: Habib Khan and Tajuddin Khan; Key player: Shahid Afridi
Maratha Arabians Owners: Sohail Khan, Ali Tumbi, Parvez Khan; Key player: Virender Sehwag
Bangla Tigers Owners: Shirajuddin Alam, Yasin Choudhary, Neelesh Bhatnager, Anis and Rizwan Sajan; Key player: TBC
Colombo Lions Owners: Sri Lanka Cricket; Key player: TBC
Kerala Kings Owners: Hussain Adam Ali and Shafi Ul Mulk; Key player: Eoin Morgan
Venue Sharjah Cricket Stadium
Format 10 overs per side, matches last for 90 minutes
When December 14-17
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Greatest of All Time
Starring: Vijay, Sneha, Prashanth, Prabhu Deva, Mohan
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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UAE players with central contracts
Rohan Mustafa, Ashfaq Ahmed, Chirag Suri, Rameez Shahzad, Shaiman Anwar, Adnan Mufti, Mohammed Usman, Ghulam Shabbir, Ahmed Raza, Qadeer Ahmed, Amir Hayat, Mohammed Naveed and Imran Haider.
Company name: Play:Date
Launched: March 2017 on UAE Mother’s Day
Founder: Shamim Kassibawi
Based: Dubai with operations in the UAE and US
Sector: Tech
Size: 20 employees
Stage of funding: Seed
Investors: Three founders (two silent co-founders) and one venture capital fund
Tips for job-seekers
- Do not submit your application through the Easy Apply button on LinkedIn. Employers receive between 600 and 800 replies for each job advert on the platform. If you are the right fit for a job, connect to a relevant person in the company on LinkedIn and send them a direct message.
- Make sure you are an exact fit for the job advertised. If you are an HR manager with five years’ experience in retail and the job requires a similar candidate with five years’ experience in consumer, you should apply. But if you have no experience in HR, do not apply for the job.
David Mackenzie, founder of recruitment agency Mackenzie Jones Middle East
if you go
A%20QUIET%20PLACE
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Awar Qalb
Director: Jamal Salem
Starring: Abdulla Zaid, Joma Ali, Neven Madi and Khadija Sleiman
Two stars
The specs
Engine: 2.7-litre 4-cylinder Turbomax
Power: 310hp
Torque: 583Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh192,500
On sale: Now
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
David Haye record
Total fights: 32
Wins: 28
Wins by KO: 26
Losses: 4
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Company%20profile
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COMPANY%20PROFILE
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SECRET%20INVASION
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Company%20Profile
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Specs
Engine: 2-litre
Transmission: Eight-speed automatic
Power: 255hp
Torque: 273Nm
Price: Dh240,000
Generational responses to the pandemic
Devesh Mamtani from Century Financial believes the cash-hoarding tendency of each generation is influenced by what stage of the employment cycle they are in. He offers the following insights:
Baby boomers (those born before 1964): Owing to market uncertainty and the need to survive amid competition, many in this generation are looking for options to hoard more cash and increase their overall savings/investments towards risk-free assets.
Generation X (born between 1965 and 1980): Gen X is currently in its prime working years. With their personal and family finances taking a hit, Generation X is looking at multiple options, including taking out short-term loan facilities with competitive interest rates instead of dipping into their savings account.
Millennials (born between 1981 and 1996): This market situation is giving them a valuable lesson about investing early. Many millennials who had previously not saved or invested are looking to start doing so now.