Republican Rick Saccone, centre, lost to Conor Lamb in the Pennsylvania special election. AP Photo / Keith Srakocic
Republican Rick Saccone, centre, lost to Conor Lamb in the Pennsylvania special election. AP Photo / Keith Srakocic

After Pennsylvania, a sense of panic sets in among Republican strategists



In terms of the balance of power in the US Congress, the victory earlier this month of Democrat Conor Lamb in the Pennsylvania special election will have minimal impact given the Republicans' comfortable majority in the House of Representatives.
But it has generated a measure of panic in the GOP, which is reeling from the impact of losing a seat it should have held comfortably. After all, Donald Trump took the district by a massive 20 points in the presidential election.
The Republicans and their deep-pocketed conservative supporters threw almost everything at Pennsylvania's 18th district. According to Federal Election Commission filings, conservative groups spent $10.7 million on the contest, accounting for 80 per cent of the total from groups outside the state.
The sense of panic among Republican strategists is understandable, especially with the mid-terms only a few months away. Unlike the party's humiliation in the Alabama Senate election, the Republicans cannot heap the blame on the candidate. Rick Saccone had none of the baggage that brought down Roy Moore.
Trump gave his full support to Mr Saccone throughout the campaign – which was not the case in Alabama.
This was a rust-belt district, typical of those that swept Donald Trump to victory. If the Republicans can lose a congressional seat where it had been a long way ahead, the fear is that a host of others will fall in November. Some senior figures in the party's hierarchy are talking darkly of the result being an alarm call.
This was, of course, an unsubtle plea to conservative donors to dig deep to fund a campaign blitz over the next few months.
On the other side of the political divide, there is no denying that the Democrats are on something of a roll, with high profile victories in Alabama and Pennsylvania being accompanied by a raft of wins at state level. Much has been made of Mr Lamb's moderation, with his supporters arguing that the party does not need to swing left to win back power.
It is an interesting message given the infighting that followed the 2016 presidential election defeat and the groundswell of grassroots opposition to establishment figures like Dianne Feinstein, who has come under fire from left-wing activists.
What impact the Democrat resurgence might have on the US approach to the Middle East, Hezbollah and the Iran nuclear deal is hard to gauge, given the extent to which foreign policy is largely dictated by the US president.
Andrew Bacevich, professor of International Relations at Boston University, is sceptical whether a change of guard in Congress will have real significance.
"When it comes to US policy in the Middle East or more generally, who speaks for Democrats? Or more specifically, who possesses the stature and standing to be heard and make a difference?" he says.
"I submit that there is no one. Once upon a time, John McCain was the conscience of the GOP on such matters. The Democrats today have no one to fill McCain's old role."
Chris Galdieri, associate professor of politics at Saint Anselm College in New Hampshire, takes a slightly different view.
"If the Democrats take the House, but not the Senate, I think you would see much more oversight over what the current administration is doing."
Significant gains for the Democrats will embolden the party and raise hope that Trump could be defeated in 2020.
The prospect of losing power would concentrate Mr Trump's mind and, given his focus appears to be on trade and North Korea, unwinding the Obama administration's approach to Iran and the Middle East, may not be top of his list of priorities.

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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Match info

Manchester United 1
Fred (18')

Wolves 1
Moutinho (53')

'Unrivaled: Why America Will Remain the World’s Sole Superpower'
Michael Beckley, Cornell Press

SHAITTAN
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MATCH DETAILS

Juventus 2 (Bonucci 36, Ronaldo 90 6)

Genoa 1 (Kouame 40)

UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
THE LIGHT

Director: Tom Tykwer

Starring: Tala Al Deen, Nicolette Krebitz, Lars Eidinger

Rating: 3/5

Directed by Sam Mendes

Starring Dean-Charles Chapman, George MacKay, Daniel Mays

4.5/5

COMPANY%20PROFILE
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MATCH INFO

Uefa Champions League semi-final, second leg
Real Madrid (2) v Bayern Munich (1)

Where: Santiago Bernabeu, Madrid
When: 10.45pm, Tuesday
Watch Live: beIN Sports HD

Scoreline

Real Madrid 1
Ronaldo (53')

Atletico Madrid 1
Griezmann (57')

Rooney's club record

At Everton Appearances: 77; Goals: 17

At Manchester United Appearances: 559; Goals: 253