Joseph Aoun’s presidency will ignite Saudi-led Arab re-engagement with Lebanon

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun’s inauguration speech in Parliament on Thursday garnered 30 rounds of applause in just 19 minutes. This was in part due to the newly elected head of state’s precise commitments to reviving the concept of the Lebanese state. His speech also presented a roadmap that reflects his political awareness and pragmatic determination to establish state authority. Mr Aoun is neither a chance President nor simply a product of compromises among Lebanese leaders driven by local horse trading . He is the President of a new reality, shaped by regional and international developments in Lebanon and Syria, with far-reaching implications involving Iran, the Arab states, the US and even Israel. His mission is far from impossible. His election, for the first time since Lebanon’s independence occurred through a democratic process free from the dominance of Israel or Syria and without Iranian hegemony. His presidency signifies Lebanon’s return to the Arab fold and Saudi Arabia’s re-engagement with the country. This re-engagement is rooted in the Arab world’s confidence in Mr Aoun’s capacity to implement the Taif Agreement . The deal, which brought an end to the 15-year civil war in Lebanon in late 1989, was sponsored by Saudi Arabia before it was undermined by Iran and Syria. In truth, the unique partnership between US President Joe Biden and president-elect Donald Trump on the Beirut file played a fundamental role in delivering Lebanon from an Israeli war that targeted the country’s infrastructure. The Biden administration waited for Israel to complete its campaign to neutralise Hezbollah, enabling it to achieve its strategic objectives against Iran and its strongest proxy. Mr Biden’s subsequent move, with Mr Trump’s assistance , was to pressure Israel to agree to a ceasefire, with an aim to facilitate the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701 under US guarantees and create a roadmap for demarcating the Lebanese-Israeli land border within months. The role of Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri , as well as caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati, was crucial in saving Lebanon from total destruction at Israel’s hands. They understood that the Biden-Trump tandem provided a rare opportunity to shield Lebanon and launch a new chapter under previously unimaginable circumstances. When the time came to elect a president under American pressure, Mr Berri recognised the sole viable option, aligning with the strategic vision of US policymakers, who also understood the value of Arab powers’ active return to Lebanon. Mr Berri, an astute observer of strategic shifts, also saw the necessity of Lebanon’s return to its Arab identity, especially for the reconstruction of the Israeli-ravaged south. The end of Iran’s domination in Lebanon marks a monumental event, not a passing development. Hezbollah’s diminished capability in Lebanon and the wider region, despite its ongoing rhetorical defiance, is self-evident. The collapse of Bashar Al Assad’s government in just two weeks has irreversibly ended Syria’s guardianship over Lebanon. These developments have made the Arab powers’ return to Lebanon, diplomatically and politically, both natural and necessary, while aligning with new regional power dynamics. Saudi Arabia’s diplomacy for a “new Lebanon” seeks to revitalise the “skeleton” that the Saudi-sponsored Taif Agreement has become, as one informed source put it. This includes restoring Lebanese sovereignty, respecting constitutional principles, implementing administrative decentralisation and ensuring state monopoly over arms by disarming non-state actors, leaving security solely in the hands of official security agencies. These critical elements were articulated in Mr Aoun’s historic speech , representing a formal commitment to implementing the Taif Agreement, consistent with the full execution of Resolution 1701. Mr Aoun intends to be firm with Israel in implementing the ceasefire agreement details and resolving outstanding issues, leading to Israel’s eventual full withdrawal from Lebanese territories followed by a border demarcation. The issue regarding the occupied Shebaa Farms, meanwhile, hinges on Syria’s recognition of the disputed area’s Lebanese ownership. If the new government in Damascus clarifies its stance, Israel will be required – in principle – to withdraw from the area. Mr Aoun aims to normalise bilateral relations with Syria on equal footing, free from subjugation, while ensuring Lebanon’s sovereign decision-making ability. Demarcating borders between the two countries is also an important objective for the presidency. Mr Mikati’s recent visits to Turkey and Syria prove that Beirut has grasped the significance of this issue and the pivotal Turkish role in achieving it. Ankara, which is likely to have plenty of influence in the power corridors of Damascus, has reportedly pledged support in this regard. Syria’s transitional administration, represented by Ahmad Al Shara , appears to be pragmatic in its regional relationships. While Turkey remains his primary partner, Mr Al Shara has emphasised the importance of an organic connection with Saudi Arabia and the Arab world. Riyadh is leading Arab efforts in playing an active role in the Levant, seeking stability in Syria and Lebanon through co-operation with other stakeholders such as Turkey, and pragmatic co-ordination with the US and concerned European states, while respecting sovereign decisions. Saudi Arabia’s intentions are not to provoke Iran but to foster stability in the Arab Levant, which has been fragmented by Tehran’s expansionist, ideological pursuits and its proxies. The geopolitical shifts have prompted Riyadh to work towards drawing the weakened Arab countries back to the Arab fold through diplomacy, development and reconstruction. This will involve an inclusive approach that aims to mend the Arab fabric in the Levant, which has suffered deeply under Iranian dominance.