Trump wants to transform America but time is against him

The coming year, 2025, will almost certainly be a pivotal one in US politics, determining the trajectory of the country for years or even decades. Donald Trump has been re-elected in a clear victory, this time with a popular vote majority. The election was much closer than originally thought, but he is, predictably, proclaiming a landslide and claiming a popular mandate for his election platform. He appears intent on an immediate charge to implement his promises "from day one”. He and his inner circles have evidently learnt a great deal from the highly inexperienced and unfocused beginnings of his first term and seem determined not to repeat that unimpressive performance. While it is unclear what his precise policy focus will be, Mr Trump has said he intends to operate as a " dictator " just for the first day to push his agenda through. But he won't be able to transform the US into a dictatorship, or anything close to one, in the four years remaining to him (according to the US Constitution, presidents may serve a maximum of two terms). But if his administration is focused, ruthless and disciplined, he can do tremendous damage to the system of checks and balances, legal limits, independent institutions and rule of law that has come to characterise the US constitutional order. Mr Trump faces many challenges and obstacles. The most significant – apart from opposition from courts, independent agencies, the media, the administrative structure and the Democrats – is that he will rapidly turn into a "lame duck" president. The last two years of a presidency are generally weak, with most opportunities centred on foreign policy where the White House can act with relatively independent authority. But, after the 2028 midterms, at least two developments are likely to restrict his freedom of action and authority. First, the incumbent party usually suffers significant congressional setbacks, and the Republicans have a tiny majority in both the House and Senate. There is a high probability Mr Trump won't be able to do much legislatively after that. Second, among Republicans, focus will shift to an intense battle for succession, with existing factions, already at loggerheads, likely to start coalescing around champions for the 2028 election, potentially leading to infighting, rivalry and possible paralysis. Third, Mr Trump is elderly, and there is the possibility of a significant health event for him in the coming years. Even if not, everyone is going to have to proceed based on the assumption that it could happen any time. This creates an additional disadvantage. Divisions among Republicans and within his coalition are already obvious. Thirty-eight Republican legislators defied him on the recent budget resolution, insisting spending cuts weren't deep enough. But Mr Trump intends to spend a great deal on tax cuts and mass deportations, among other things. That's why he sought to eliminate the debt ceiling. He's clearly out of step with Republican "budget hawks" who won't care for his apparent carefree spending plans. Moreover, a bitter ideological split recently ensued over immigration. The "tech bros” from Silicon Valley, led by Elon Musk , have been aggressively defending the H1B visa programme for highly educated immigrant workers. This elicited howls of outrage from immigration hardliners, especially since the visa programme champions appeared to critique US culture as mediocre and American workers as under-educated underperformers. Mr Trump eventually sided with the H1B programme – which he has angrily denounced in the past. But there is now a clear internal war between the Maga nativist anti-immigration hardliners versus the Silicon Valley and venture-capital business interests, with both factions having been central to his re-election. This is a massive fault line in his coalition that is going to be tested early on. Immigration hardliners hope for a "reconciliation" bill soon after his inauguration to begin an effort to deport millions of migrants, while these oligarchs will demand, at the very least, an exception for their indispensable H1B employees and prospective hires. Moreover, if the deportation scheme cuts deeply into the migrant worker pool, other industries, including agriculture, meatpacking, construction, food preparation, building maintenance, waste disposal and many other interests are likely to push back. A surge in inflation may give them additional leverage, even as xenophobic fanatics like White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller – who is likely to be authoring new legislation and executive orders – try to charge forward at full speed. Mr Trump's autocratic instincts may be tested early on as he tries to impose his will on an unco-operative Congress or administrative agencies and Democratic-run states. He will also probably face crucial standoffs with courts and other independent sources of authority in the US system. That may be especially true if he tries to quickly reshape the administrative structure with mass sackings of apolitical experts and their replacement with handpicked ideologues. He may face an even bigger test if he seeks to use the Justice Department and FBI for the "retribution" he promised against his political opponents. Professional employees at both agencies may refuse such unethical assignments or delay them into oblivion. And courts may, and certainly should, dismiss all such efforts as unlawful and disgraceful. Mr Trump will certainly have to choose between a limited set of policy priorities, most of which will prove controversial, even within his party and inner circle. Despite his obvious efforts at a running start, he appears considerably weaker than he did immediately after the election, in part because of a series of implausible nominations of unqualified candidates, and the emergence of these new internal divisions. His appointments also reflect ideological incoherence, despite uniform fealty to the incoming president. But personal loyalty does not translate into policy coherence. Even on an issue as basic as military aid to Ukraine, one can sense a fight brewing. Mr Trump appears to want to transform the US into a kind of "illiberal democracy". But he doesn't have four years to do that. It's more like two years. And between the internal fighting and opposition from external forces, it is going to be extremely difficult. In all likelihood, the most he can do is set the stage for a like-minded successor. And if that's going to happen at all, the key groundwork will have to be established in 2025.