If rice and wheat become scarce, what would we do?

With 2024 projected to be the hottest year on record, the impact of climate change on global food systems is more urgent than ever. Climate change is affecting every region of the world, but its most immediate and profound effects are being felt in our food systems. Rising temperatures increasingly jeopardise our ability to feed a growing global population. We need swift and transformative action to ensure our food systems are resilient, inclusive and sustainable. These systems must reduce emissions while safeguarding the millions of smallholder farmers who are on the frontlines of climate change. On this World Food Day, it’s crucial to acknowledge that global food systems are ill-prepared for the future. Farmers are the cornerstone of global food production, yet they are among the most vulnerable to climate-related disruptions. Without immediate, substantial investment in food security , the consequences could be dire, affecting millions of lives and destabilising economies worldwide. We must invest in solutions that help farmers adapt, securing their livelihoods while creating a food system that can meet both present and future demands. Extreme weather events – floods, droughts and heatwaves – are already wreaking havoc on crop yields. These challenges, combined with geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions , put immense pressure on an already strained system. The resilience of our global food supply depends on our ability to support smallholder farmers, who form the backbone of agriculture yet often lack the resources to cope with a changing climate. The Food and Agriculture Organisation of the UN and World Economic Forum have warned that climate change could drastically reduce global crop yields, with some estimates predicting a 30 per cent decline by mid-century, especially in regions vulnerable to extreme weather. Smallholder farmers, who produce 70 per cent of the world’s food, face disproportionate risks from these climate effects, threatening both their livelihoods and global food security. The need to address climate change and its impact on agriculture is urgent. At Cop28 , a powerful political commitment was made to address the interlinked challenges of climate, food and agriculture. The Cop28 Declaration on Sustainable Agriculture, Resilient Food Systems and Climate Action was endorsed by 160 nations, representing more than 80 per cent of the global agricultural gross domestic product, 70 per cent of the world’s farmers, and 80 per cent of agriculture-related emissions. The UAE, recognising the urgency of addressing food security, has formed key global partnerships aimed at driving sustainable agricultural practices. One such collaboration, launched at Cop28 with the Gates Foundation and CGIAR, seeks to make farmers more resilient to climate shocks and contribute to global food security. This partnership, a $200 million initiative over four years, uses innovative technologies – such as AI and desert farming techniques – to help smallholder farmers adapt to climate change, with a focus on regions in the Global South where the need is most critical. Through this partnership, the UAE will tackle critical challenges such as pest migration and infestations, which are expected to become more frequent due to climate change. The initiative will also focus on developing and testing innovative farming techniques that maximise productivity and nutritional output in arid environments. By harnessing the power of AI, the UAE aims to provide actionable solutions to both food and climate challenges, helping farmers make better decisions and optimise opportunities. Additionally, the partnership will provide support to countries in implementing their own food and climate goals, ensuring that national aspirations are met with practical and scalable solutions. These collaborations also promote agricultural innovation, enabling farmers to adopt climate-smart practices such as drought-resistant crops and precision agriculture. The UAE’s National Food Security Strategy 2051 underscores its commitment to building sustainable food systems through technology, innovation and international co-operation. This leadership exemplifies the country’s dedication to addressing the twin challenges of climate change and food security. Historically, food security has been underfunded, but this can no longer be ignored. The food system contributes more than one-third of global greenhouse gas emissions, making it crucial for both climate action and economic stability. Yet philanthropic funding for food systems is a mere fraction of overall climate financing, which itself falls short of addressing the scale of the crisis. The UAE’s partnerships with global organisations highlight how targeted investments can foster change, safeguarding global food supplies while promoting economic resilience. Investing in food security not only feeds people but transforms communities and economies. Thriving farmers lead to thriving local economies, creating jobs and fostering social stability. Agricultural innovations – such as smart irrigation systems and climate-resilient crops – are already making a difference, helping farmers adapt to changing weather patterns and secure their futures. If we fail to act now, what will our food systems look like in 10 or 20 years? Without serious investment, staple crops such as wheat, rice and corn could become scarce, expensive, or both. Rising food prices will hit the poorest the hardest, leading to widespread hunger and potential social unrest. The time to act is now. By prioritising sustainable food systems, we can prevent this future, ensuring our tables remain full, our communities prosper, and our farmers are empowered to feed the world. On this World Food Day, let’s unite in our commitment to placing food security at the forefront of the global agenda. Our planet’s future – and the future of our dinner tables – depends on the actions we take today.