From Gaza to Ukraine to Sudan, why conflicts will be in limbo until 2025

The uncertainty surrounding the fate of various conflicts around the world is likely to persist, with stakeholders keeping an eye on the US presidential election in November. Some of these actors appear to be either stalling for time, or making risky gambles, knowing that there will be a new president in the White House from January. From Russia’s war in Ukraine – and now Ukraine’s counteroffensive in Russian territory – to Iran’s proxy wars against Israel and the piracy of the Houthi rebels in the Red Sea, the world remains in a state of suspense. Meanwhile, the conflicts in Gaza and Sudan show no signs of ending. What began as a “special military operations”, Russia’s war in Ukraine has been going on for more than 900 days and is unlikely to conclude this year. New developments on the ground have dashed any hopes of positive negotiations between the two countries. The UK’s reportedly private backing for Ukraine to use Storm Shadow missiles to strike into Russian territory is particularly significant, especially as the administration of US President Joe Biden is said to be cautious about the idea. But the Russian city of Kursk has become a focal point for Ukraine’s military operations inside enemy territory. This is the first time since 1941 that foreign forces have entered Russia, displacing more than 133,000 people and threatening the Kursk nuclear plant, just 40 kilometres from the city. These developments underscore Moscow’s vulnerability and is a significant psychological blow to the Russian people. The current setback for the Russian leadership is compounded by the fear of another Chernobyl-like disaster, given that the Kursk nuclear plant is not designed to withstand missile attacks. President Vladimir Putin has accused Kyiv of planning to strike the Kursk reactor, and the International Atomic Energy Agency has concluded that the situation is extremely dangerous. Russian diplomacy is, meanwhile, reportedly frustrated with India’s stance. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who recently proposed a peace summit to be hosted in his country, has acknowledged the legitimacy of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s stance. This is troubling for Moscow, which considers New Delhi a friend. The Kursk offensive, however, which surprised both Russia and some Nato members, seems to have dashed hopes for negotiations in the near future. This means that plenty can go wrong between now and January when the new US president takes office. However, it’s important to point out that, with the war in Ukraine posing a bigger security threat to Europe than it does to America, it isn’t having the kind of impact on the US election that the Gaza conflict is. This is primarily because the latter involves Israel, for which both presidential candidates, Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump, have pledged their unwavering support. Second, around the world Israel’s war has exposed its disregard for civilian lives and its rejection of the two-state solution. And while it claims to seek to destroy Hamas, it is no longer a secret that its government has contributed to Hamas’s sustenance in the past with a view to weaken its rival Fatah movement. As long as Washington’s attempts to contain the Gaza war remain disjointed, transitional and driven by appeasement and covert deals – not only between Israel and Hamas but also between the Biden administration and Iran – the Middle East will remain in a perpetual state of anxiety. And as long as Hezbollah and Israel agree on the rules of engagement , with one party exceeding these rules only after informing the other, Lebanon cannot expect either stability or prosperity. Like ordinary Gazans, the Lebanese public cutting across divides is anxious. It isn’t enough for Hezbollah’s Hassan Nasrallah to assure those who panicked and fled to safer places that they can return. This does not provide lasting reassurance, nor does it respect Lebanon’s sovereignty, territorial integrity and the security of its citizens. It also does not guarantee that Lebanon will not be dragged into a broader war with Israel that neither side will win. The war in Gaza may remain in a state of limbo and could even fade into obscurity and neglect in the coming months. This is unless the Biden team’s optimism materialises , with the release of hostages and prisoners and an eventual ceasefire deal. If such a breakthrough does indeed happen, it will be because neither Israel nor Hamas can sustain an open-ended war of attrition. The next phase could well be a transitional period until the US election is over. As for the Houthis, who claim independence from Iran’s directives and prioritise lucrative piracy above all else, it would be wise for them to show some compassion for the Yemeni people, who are facing a cholera outbreak following the floods. It would also be beneficial if all the global superpowers made the unlikely decision to consider the consequences of their muted responses to the catastrophic policies and misadventures in Yemen, Sudan, Gaza and Lebanon.