A tale of three democracies: what next for the UK, US and France?

If Charles Dickens’s great novel of political ferment, A Tale of Two Cities , were to be written today, it would be a tale of three cities. Dickens wrote of revolutionary Paris and 18th-century London. In 2024, we should add Washington to the list. A sense of change and turmoil now in three of the great capitals of western democracies tell us a great deal about three systems, three very different political leaders, and about the fragility of democracy itself. The UK’s election has left the Conservative party – as the BBC’s political editor Chris Mason put it – “a smoking ruin”. The defeat is so comprehensive that Conservatives have no Westminster representation in Wales, Northern Ireland, or Scotland outside just three Scottish seats all bordering England. The Conservatives are fundamentally now only a party of England, not of the UK . That was emphasised by Prime Minister Keir Starmer ’s whirlwind tour of Edinburgh, Belfast and Cardiff, where he met political leaders and promised a new kind of co-operation. Contrast Mr Starmer’s huge parliamentary majority giving him the ability to speak for the UK, with the situation in Paris. Unlike former UK prime minister Rishi Sunak who appeared to dither over when to call an election, French President Macron called a snap parliamentary vote that surprised everyone. He did so in response to the victories of Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally party in the European parliamentary elections. Like Mr Sunak, Mr Macron was – and still is – unpopular. But unlike Mr Sunak, Mr Macron was decisive. He called an election that was not constitutionally necessary and, commentators said, possibly politically disastrous for him and his party. Many commentators, and perhaps Ms Le Pen herself, assumed that strong support for the National Rally in European elections would translate into strong support in French elections. Wrong. In France and elsewhere, a lot of voters traditionally do not much care about who runs the European parliament. They care a lot more about who runs their own country. The turnout in the second round of the parliamentary elections was the highest since 1986, and more than 20 per cent up on the previous parliamentary elections in 2022. Now, of course no democracy and no democratic system is perfect. No transition of power is ever smooth. And it’s not entirely clear who “won” the French election, but it is absolutely clear who lost – Ms Le Pen and her party. Her face as the results came in showed no signs of happiness. The big difference between France and the UK is in the voting system. In France, it is proportional representation of a complicated kind. That tends to mean governments may have to be coalitions of various sorts. Certainly, there will be horse-trading between the left-wing coalition of parties and Mr Macron’s group. In the UK, however, we have an enormous Labour landslide taking two thirds of the seats in the House of Commons, but based on just one third of the voters choosing to vote for Labour. The simple truth is that the UK has a “First Past The Post” system that is rooted in the politics of two powerful political parties, a system going back at least to the 19th century. It does provide strong governments – Mr Starmer is hugely powerful – but a system based on two parties does not fully represent what has become a much more diverse multi-party UK. In fact, what it does do is make Labour and the Conservatives into parties whose members are a wide coalition of (at times very fractious) views. Internal party divisions between left and right helped keep Labour out of power for 14 years. Internal party divisions between centre right and the far right have destroyed the Conservative party, possibly for a decade. Although problems of changing the UK voting system are far from Mr Starmer’s immediate agenda, they will not go away. The UK is the only European country, except Belarus, to persist with such an antiquated way of voting. And that brings us to the inheritors of some of the advantages and disadvantages of the UK system – the US. The US faces another Joe Biden versus Donald Trump contest. The world’s greatest superpower, the arsenal of democracy, had to choose between two men who, unfortunately, do not seem to represent (for very different reasons) the best of America. The Trump candidacy seems inevitable. His flaws are well documented yet glossed over by many Republicans. In years of living in Washington, I admired, liked and respected Mr Biden as a great American and fundamentally a good person. In our tale of three cities, Mr Sunak in London proved a ditherer and a disaster. Mr Macron is often disliked but decisive. Mr Biden is decent but, I regret to say, possibly debilitated. He can struggle on and lose in November and be criticised for fighting when unfit. Or he can gracefully pass on to the next generation and be a hero for his sacrifice. In this tale of three cities, I have no crystal ball, but Mr Biden needs to make a very painful decision before others may make it for him.