What chance do Nigel Farage and his Reform UK party stand in the general election?

Nigel Farage has been called many names in his very long, turbulent political career. Some names are too rude to put into print. The leader of the Reform UK party is undoubtedly an entertainer. Like Boris Johnson and Donald Trump, Mr Farage’s antics and comments often make news. I’ve met and interviewed him a few times and he is jolly and entertaining in person, even if his statements are often designed to stir up animosity towards immigrants and others, especially those from predominantly Muslim countries. Mr Farage has tried and failed seven times to become a British MP. He’s trying now for an eighth time. He did succeed in becoming a Member of the European Parliament capturing the anti-EU feeling in England that led to Brexit. The Reform UK party is a strange bunch. Mr Farage owns it, rather like a private company, yet opinion polls appear to show it could do well at the UK general election. Some polls suggest it could take 20 per cent of the votes. We shall see. Mr Farage himself may win a seat in Parliament for Clacton, in Essex. A 2023 report from the centre-right think tank UK Onward described Clacton as ranking “among the top 1 per cent of most deprived neighbourhoods” in England, and that “nearby Jaywick Sands is the most deprived neighbourhood in England. The town also sees very low economic activity – of around 51 per cent, compared to an English average of 80 per cent”. Mr Farage is, in short, loved by some and also loathed by many. Recently in a BBC interview, he claimed that “the West” provoked Russian President Vladimir Putin into invading Ukraine. UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who fears that Mr Farage’s party will take votes from the Conservatives, called this “appeasement” and said that it “plays into Putin’s hands”. Labour party leader Keir Starmer agreed, saying “anyone who is standing for Parliament ought to be really clear that Russia is the aggressor”. Perhaps more importantly, the right-wing Conservative tabloid newspaper The Mail put Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s condemnation on the front-page banner headline, claiming “Farage is infected with ‘virus of Putin’”. What is interesting is that across European countries, those on the far right – like Mr Farage – and some on the far left often show sympathy towards Russia while the main political parties in the centre – Labour, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and others – take a very different position. Whatever your own views of the conflict, the accusation that Mr Farage is in effect an appeaser of the Russian leadership may do him damage in the run-up to voting day on July 4. That’s because in British political culture, the word “appeasement” is rooted in 1930s policy towards Adolf Hitler. Nowadays it suggests a naive lack of patriotism and that charge could damage Mr Farage, who likes to shroud himself in British Union Jack flags. Beyond the froth of politics, the more damaging bad news for Mr Farage and Reform UK may be much deeper problems beneath. The party appears to be fielding a number of candidates who have liked or befriended on social media some very hard-right figures. London’s Evening Standard newspaper reported that “the party has been hit by a series of revelations about the online activities of some of its would-be MPs, from links to a British fascist leader to suggestions the UK should have remained neutral in the fight against the Nazis and admiration of Hitler’s “brilliant” ability to inspire action”. Mr Farage’s excuse for all this appears to be that he was let down by the company he hired to vet candidates and check their background. On June 19, he complained on social media that “Reform paid a vetting company £144,000 ($183,765) to carry out candidate checks. Not a single piece of work was delivered”. He claimed an “establishment stitch up”. This brought disbelief from Deborah Meaden, a very successful business leader and popular TV star on business programmes. “Seriously? You paid upfront? … Just handed over the cash?” she replied. Mr Farage sounded naive, not something inspirational in an ambitious political leader. According to the website of vetting.com , the company involved, it is not even an “outsourced background screening company”. Instead, it provides a “flagship background screening tool” to enable Reform UK to carry out its own checks itself. It appears to have failed to do so. In another apparent glimpse of naivete, Mr Farage tweeted that in government, “Reform UK will reject the influence of the World Economic Forum and cancel Britain’s membership of it”. That’s not possible. Governments are not members of the WEF. The BBC Verify journalist Shayan Sardarizadeh wrote on X: “The UK is not a member of the World Economic Forum, nor is any other country on Earth.” It appears that in Mr Farage, we have a political leader who talks a lot and entertains audiences with promises to break the mould of politics but who doesn’t seem to have a clue about policy or competence. Britain’s former defence secretary Ben Wallace summed it up when he called Mr Farage a “pub bore” who presents “very simplistic answers to complex problems”. In the list of British insults, being a pub bore is just as bad as being an appeaser.