Tactical and strategic panic is besetting all the protagonists involved in the conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon. Be it Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Hamas’s head in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, Hezbollah secretary general Hassan Nasrallah, or the leaders sitting in the US and Iran, none of them have yet displayed the courage and wisdom required to resolve the Middle East’s current set of crises.
For the most part, they all seem to be paralysed by a combination of naivety and arrogance. In the process, they are committing mistakes that could end up costing the region in profound ways.
As the war in Gaza continues unabated, all signs are pointing to a full-blown conflict in Lebanon in the coming days and weeks. What direction the escalation of tensions between Israel and Hezbollah takes depends on the negotiations under way, with Washington acting as a go-between.
The man with the task of liaising with Lebanon and Israel, Amos Hochstein, has so far been successful in resolving disputes not only between Lebanon and Israel, but also between Hezbollah and Israel. Mr Hochstein has relied on Lebanese Parliamentary Speaker Nabih Berri as a back channel between the US administration under President Joe Biden and Hezbollah.
Washington classifies Hezbollah as a “terrorist” organisation, yet the Biden administration has negotiated with it, which shows its determination to prevent a war between Lebanon and Israel. It has sought a diplomatic formula that would include Hezbollah’s return to behind the Litani River, creating a buffer between the group and the Israeli army to prevent direct military confrontation.
The pragmatism of the “Hochstein approach” to diplomacy is essentially an acknowledgment that Hezbollah is stronger than the Lebanese state, and that Lebanese sovereignty might need to take a back seat while negotiations are conducted between the Biden administration and the “Shiite Duo” of Hezbollah and Mr Berri’s Amal Movement.
But no matter how noble Mr Hochstein’s intentions are, he may have made a serious strategic mistake by adopting such an approach.
This is not to say that there is an effective state in Lebanon with sovereignty – it is a quasi-state with truncated sovereignty – but the US risks entrenching what is an unacceptable reality and normalising this anomaly.
Mr Hochstein has also sought to link the Lebanese and Palestinian tracks, connecting Mr Biden’s ceasefire initiative in Gaza to ending the conflict between Hezbollah and Israel. He has pleaded with those he met to convince Hezbollah to delink the Gaza and Lebanon conflicts.
He should, instead, have spoken the language of a great power addressing two states on the brink of war. Indeed, he did not speak of a roadmap to resolving disputes between Lebanon and Israel, as he had done in the past.
The warning he recently carried to Beirut was to either accept the ceasefire initiative and avoid war, or to have a war and then be forced to accept the initiative. He informed the Lebanese government and Mr Berri to carry a message to Mr Nasrallah that he must take Israel’s threats of war against him and Lebanon seriously.
His message to Mr Nasrallah was that there is a diplomatic solution on the table, but that time is running out and the opportunity should not be missed. The envoy also reminded the group that Washington would not be able to deter Israel from waging a war on Lebanon.
The warning came with a message that the US remains Israel’s strategic ally.
We, therefore, find ourselves in a world where there is no motivation to secure peace in the region. As Mr Hochstein remarked, while Mr Sinwar holds 120 hostages in Gaza, Mr Nasrallah holds four million Lebanese hostages.
As for Mr Netanyahu’s Israeli government, it seeks victory at any cost. Having been unable to destroy Hamas or even capture Mr Sinwar, despite killing tens of thousands of civilians in Gaza, it now appears tempted to launch an operation to destroy Hezbollah.
The Biden administration will not pressure Israel to avoid such an operation if Mr Nasrallah rejects Mr Hochstein’s offer. This much is clear. Anyone who believes that the US will prevent Israel from trying to eliminate Hezbollah, regardless of the high cost to Lebanon and its people, does not understand American politics.
Iran, meanwhile, presents a puzzle. It may be the key to preventing an all-out war between Hezbollah and Israel. But it is in the middle of an earlier-than-anticipated presidential election after the death of Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash last month. The election has brought with it intense power struggles and deep divisions within the political system. Hence, the regime may not be in a position to get involved in a war with Israel right now.
Given all this, it is not surprising that Mr Nasrallah is feeling the pressure. His recent remarks against Cyprus and the EU, for their perceived support for Israel, indicates that his nerves might be frayed. This is not a reassuring sign for him, his base, or for Lebanon at large.
Mr Nasrallah, however, is not suicidal. The hope, then, is that he decides to back down and ensure that his popular base is saved from destruction.
