The full repercussions of the UK vote to leave the European Union are likely to be unclear for some time. The referendum decision will affect the British economy, its immigration policy and much more.
Egyptian columnist Aziza Abdulaziz Al Munir wrote in the pan-Arab daily Al Hayat that the referendum occurred “under several challenges and at a time when Europe is dealing with critical historical circumstances, from the eurozone crisis to the refugee crisis and Europe’s division on how to deal with and contain the influx of refugees”.
However, one of the main concerns expressed by the British people – and especially the older generation – was over the integrity of British identity if the UK were to remain in the EU.
The British economy will incur major losses and growth is expected to slow down substantially once Britain loses the many advantages and privileges of its EU membership. Among the major issues are free trade with European markets and their 500 million consumers.
“Perhaps the political impact of Britain’s exit will be the heaviest. The British will end up adhering to many of Brussels regulations for commercial and economic purposes, just like Norway and Switzerland – two countries that are subject to the EU terms without playing any role in the enactment of these terms,” Al Munir added.
The columnist Abdul Haq Azzouzi voiced a similar view in Aletihad, the Arabic-language sister newspaper of The National, saying Britons have voted on parochial grounds.
“The reason that led David Cameron to quit as prime minister, plunged European institutions into mourning and caused a strong earthquake for strategic alliances such as the American-British and the American-British-European alliances, is that the British chose national sovereignty over the union,” he wrote.
“It is a choice that was made by the most powerful country in Europe and one of the most powerful in the world.”
The British people seemed adamant in their choice despite calls to remain in the union raised by everyone from Barack Obama through to business groups and multinational companies.
Despite Londoners electing their first Muslim mayor, all these attempts failed to convince a majority of the British people to favour union over nationalism, he wrote.
“The British have always felt that they are history’s chosen people,” he concluded, “and that no one has the right to dictate the country’s political, economic or social direction, which has been paved centuries ago.”
Predictions by HSBC are for a tough transitional period, to be marked by turmoil in London’s financial markets. The pound is likely to drop further and inflation to rise, in addition to higher labour costs and a decline in growth by 1 to 1.5 per cent.
Thousands of jobs may move from London to other financial hubs. Given its potential human, industrial and financial effects, Britain will recover but only after causing earthquakes in Europe and abroad.
Citing “informed sources”, German news magazine Der Spiegel said the European Commission will not make Britain’s return easy as a way to discourage anti-EU movements in other countries.
The European Union may argue that it has more urgent issues to handle, such as the refugee crisis, the financial crisis in Greece and the conflict with Russia.
In the best-case scenario, the British people will enter a phase of uncertainty and ambiguity which will not serve investment.
* Translated by Racha Makarem
rmakarem@thenational.ae
BEETLEJUICE BEETLEJUICE
Starring: Winona Ryder, Michael Keaton, Jenny Ortega
Director: Tim Burton
Rating: 3/5
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Engine: 2.7-litre 4-cylinder Turbomax
Power: 310hp
Torque: 583Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
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On sale: Now
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
RESULTS
6pm: Mazrat Al Ruwayah – Group 2 (PA) $40,000 (Dirt) 1,600m
Winner: AF Alajaj, Tadhg O’Shea (jockey), Ernst Oertel (trainer)
6.35pm: Race of Future – Handicap (TB) $80,000 (Turf) 2,410m
Winner: Global Storm, William Buick, Charlie Appleby
7.10pm: UAE 2000 Guineas – Group 3 (TB) $150,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Azure Coast, Antonio Fresu, Pavel Vashchenko
7.45pm: Business Bay Challenge – Listed (TB) $100,000 (T) 1,400m
Winner: Storm Damage, Patrick Cosgrave, Saeed bin Suroor
20.20pm: Curlin Stakes – Listed (TB) $100,000 (D) 2,000m
Winner: Appreciated, Fernando Jara, Doug O’Neill
8.55pm: Singspiel Stakes – Group 2 (TB) $180,000 (T) 1,800m
Winner: Lord Glitters, Daniel Tudhope, David O'Meara
9.30pm: Al Shindagha Sprint – Group 3 (TB) $150,000 (D) 1,200m
Winner: Meraas, Antonio Fresu, Musabah Al Muhairi
Israel Palestine on Swedish TV 1958-1989
Director: Goran Hugo Olsson
Rating: 5/5
Company Profile
Name: Thndr
Started: 2019
Co-founders: Ahmad Hammouda and Seif Amr
Sector: FinTech
Headquarters: Egypt
UAE base: Hub71, Abu Dhabi
Current number of staff: More than 150
Funds raised: $22 million