At his marathon press conference last week, Vladimir Putin left his audience in no doubt that he sees the US and its European allies as the main source of Russia’s current misfortunes. As well as denouncing “illegitimate and illegal” sanctions against Russia, he also hinted that the recent steep decline in oil prices was a conspiracy hatched by the US and Saudi Arabia. Mr Putin was also defiant on the main cause of discord between Russia and the West, namely the simmering crisis in eastern Ukraine. What the Russian president did not do was offer any clues as to how his country can steer its way out of economic crisis.
Mr Putin did not betray any concern for his domestic position. Russians are noted for their stoicism, having shown great resilience when tested by the worst excesses of communism and the destruction wrought by two world wars. But the middle class that has prospered under Mr Putin now find their lifestyle under threat. The Kremlin’s bargain with the people, whereby it imposed authoritarian leadership in exchange for higher living standards, is now at risk. Luxury goods and foreign travel will be increasingly inaccessible. For many newly affluent Russians, the good times are over at least for now. Increased interest rates will also hurt small businesses, thus undermining the drive towards increased economic diversification.
With the Russian economy in crisis, the US and its allies continue to turn up the heat. Last Tuesday, Barack Obama signed into law Ukraine Freedom Support Act of 2014, which provides for additional sanctions on Russia and military aid to Ukraine. It is structured in such a way as to give the White House considerable flexibility if Russia makes any further moves on Ukraine. This was followed by an executive order from Mr Obama banning the export of goods, technology and services to the Crimea Peninsula, which was annexed by Russia last March. This was supplemented by new sanctions on Russian and Ukrainian companies and individuals in coordination with similar measures by the EU and Canada.
Domestic opposition to Mr Putin remains muted. Even the sharp economic slowdown predicted for next year would be bearable compared to the chaotic 1990s, when systematic financial mismanagement and corruption eventually wiped out personal savings and led to Russia defaulting on its debt.
Opinion polls still show strong support for Mr Putin. Reflecting an emerging siege mentality, the Kremlin also appears to be preparing the population for hardships ahead by appealing to national resilience against foreign foes.
Although western leaders can take some satisfaction from forcing Russia into a corner, there are potential hazards ahead. A collapse of the Russian economy would damage the European recovery as well as have an impact further afield. At present, Moscow is unlikely to aggravate tensions in regions such as the Middle East. Given his support for the Assad regime in Damascus and genuine concerns about nuclear proliferation, Mr Putin will not for now impede the campaign against ISIL or the nuclear talks with Iran. However, mooted trade ties with Iran and North Korea suggest that Russia is ready to develop closer relations with new allies in Asia.
Moscow remains determined not to back down over Ukraine. The country is the key to the vast expanse of land between the Baltic and Black Seas. Dominated by the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth in the Early Modern era, Russia has sought to maintain its grip on this area over the last two centuries as an essential buffer that served it well against invasions by Napoleon and Hitler. Russia thus sees a neutral Ukraine as an essential strategic interest.
Assuming the Kremlin is not set on permanently destabilising Ukraine, the key issue appears to be what form of autonomy for eastern Ukraine all parties could agree on. The problem is that the level of distrust, caused on the one hand by Russian evasiveness over its interference in a sovereign neighbour, and on the other hand by Moscow’s anger at a perceived western bid to draw Ukraine into Nato and the EU, is now such that it is difficult to see a way forward.
Mr Putin’s epic press conference last week gave observers little reason to doubt the authenticity of his persecution complex. In his remarks to the media, Mr Putin illustrated his suspicions about western designs when he warned: “once they’ve taken out his claws and his teeth, then the bear is no longer necessary. He’ll become a stuffed animal.”
He did, however, offer to work to solve the crisis in eastern Ukraine so long as an agreement was based on “fundamental international principles, including the right of self-determination”. This statement does offer the glimmer of an opening. Now that Moscow finds itself in a tight corner, this might be the time for a new diplomatic initiative. Otherwise, the danger is that an isolated Russia might retreat into a more extreme form of isolationist nationalism while embarking on policies designed to further undermine the post-Cold War international order.
Stephen Blackwell is an international politics and security analyst
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The specs
A4 35 TFSI
Engine: 2.0-litre, four-cylinder
Transmission: seven-speed S-tronic automatic
Power: 150bhp
Torque: 270Nm
Price: Dh150,000 (estimate)
On sale: First Q 2020
A4 S4 TDI
Engine: 3.0-litre V6 turbo diesel
Transmission: eight-speed PDK automatic
Power: 350bhp
Torque: 700Nm
Price: Dh165,000 (estimate)
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The specs: Fenyr SuperSport
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Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
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Fuel economy, combined: 13.5L / 100km
Stamp duty timeline
December 2014: Former UK finance minister George Osbourne reforms stamp duty, replacing the slab system with a blended rate scheme, with the top rate increasing to 12 per cent from 10 per cent:
Up to £125,000 - 0%; £125,000 to £250,000 – 2%; £250,000 to £925,000 – 5%; £925,000 to £1.5m: 10%; Over £1.5m – 12%
April 2016: New 3% surcharge applied to any buy-to-let properties or additional homes purchased.
July 2020: Rishi Sunak unveils SDLT holiday, with no tax to pay on the first £500,000, with buyers saving up to £15,000.
March 2021: Mr Sunak decides the fate of SDLT holiday at his March 3 budget, with expectations he will extend the perk unti June.
April 2021: 2% SDLT surcharge added to property transactions made by overseas buyers.
South Africa World Cup squad
South Africa: Faf du Plessis (c), Hashim Amla, Quinton de Kock (w), JP Duminy, Imran Tahir, Aiden Markram, David Miller, Lungi Ngidi, Anrich Nortje, Andile Phehlukwayo, Dwaine Pretorius, Kagiso Rabada, Tabraiz Shamsi, Dale Steyn, Rassie van der Dussen.
Jigra
Starring: Alia Bhatt, Vedang Raina, Manoj Pahwa, Harsh Singh
Company%20Profile
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Stamp%20duty%20timeline
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Pox that threatens the Middle East's native species
Camelpox
Caused by a virus related to the one that causes human smallpox, camelpox typically causes fever, swelling of lymph nodes and skin lesions in camels aged over three, but the animal usually recovers after a month or so. Younger animals may develop a more acute form that causes internal lesions and diarrhoea, and is often fatal, especially when secondary infections result. It is found across the Middle East as well as in parts of Asia, Africa, Russia and India.
Falconpox
Falconpox can cause a variety of types of lesions, which can affect, for example, the eyelids, feet and the areas above and below the beak. It is a problem among captive falcons and is one of many types of avian pox or avipox diseases that together affect dozens of bird species across the world. Among the other forms are pigeonpox, turkeypox, starlingpox and canarypox. Avipox viruses are spread by mosquitoes and direct bird-to-bird contact.
Houbarapox
Houbarapox is, like falconpox, one of the many forms of avipox diseases. It exists in various forms, with a type that causes skin lesions being least likely to result in death. Other forms cause more severe lesions, including internal lesions, and are more likely to kill the bird, often because secondary infections develop. This summer the CVRL reported an outbreak of pox in houbaras after rains in spring led to an increase in mosquito numbers.
COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
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COMPANY%20PROFILE
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ICC T20 Rankings
1. India - 270 ranking points
2. England - 265 points
3. Pakistan - 261 points
4. South Africa - 253 points
5. Australia - 251 points
6. New Zealand - 250 points
7. West Indies - 240 points
8. Bangladesh - 233 points
9. Sri Lanka - 230 points
10. Afghanistan - 226 points
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Almnssa
Started: August 2020
Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding
Thank You for Banking with Us
Director: Laila Abbas
Starring: Yasmine Al Massri, Clara Khoury, Kamel El Basha, Ashraf Barhoum
Rating: 4/5
5 of the most-popular Airbnb locations in Dubai
Bobby Grudziecki, chief operating officer of Frank Porter, identifies the five most popular areas in Dubai for those looking to make the most out of their properties and the rates owners can secure:
• Dubai Marina
The Marina and Jumeirah Beach Residence are popular locations, says Mr Grudziecki, due to their closeness to the beach, restaurants and hotels.
Frank Porter’s average Airbnb rent:
One bedroom: Dh482 to Dh739
Two bedroom: Dh627 to Dh960
Three bedroom: Dh721 to Dh1,104
• Downtown
Within walking distance of the Dubai Mall, Burj Khalifa and the famous fountains, this location combines business and leisure. “Sure it’s for tourists,” says Mr Grudziecki. “Though Downtown [still caters to business people] because it’s close to Dubai International Financial Centre."
Frank Porter’s average Airbnb rent:
One bedroom: Dh497 to Dh772
Two bedroom: Dh646 to Dh1,003
Three bedroom: Dh743 to Dh1,154
• City Walk
The rising star of the Dubai property market, this area is lined with pristine sidewalks, boutiques and cafes and close to the new entertainment venue Coca Cola Arena. “Downtown and Marina are pretty much the same prices,” Mr Grudziecki says, “but City Walk is higher.”
Frank Porter’s average Airbnb rent:
One bedroom: Dh524 to Dh809
Two bedroom: Dh682 to Dh1,052
Three bedroom: Dh784 to Dh1,210
• Jumeirah Lake Towers
Dubai Marina’s little brother JLT resides on the other side of Sheikh Zayed road but is still close enough to beachside outlets and attractions. The big selling point for Airbnb renters, however, is that “it’s cheaper than Dubai Marina”, Mr Grudziecki says.
Frank Porter’s average Airbnb rent:
One bedroom: Dh422 to Dh629
Two bedroom: Dh549 to Dh818
Three bedroom: Dh631 to Dh941
• Palm Jumeirah
Palm Jumeirah's proximity to luxury resorts is attractive, especially for big families, says Mr Grudziecki, as Airbnb renters can secure competitive rates on one of the world’s most famous tourist destinations.
Frank Porter’s average Airbnb rent:
One bedroom: Dh503 to Dh770
Two bedroom: Dh654 to Dh1,002
Three bedroom: Dh752 to Dh1,152
Key changes
Commission caps
For life insurance products with a savings component, Peter Hodgins of Clyde & Co said different caps apply to the saving and protection elements:
• For the saving component, a cap of 4.5 per cent of the annualised premium per year (which may not exceed 90 per cent of the annualised premium over the policy term).
• On the protection component, there is a cap of 10 per cent of the annualised premium per year (which may not exceed 160 per cent of the annualised premium over the policy term).
• Indemnity commission, the amount of commission that can be advanced to a product salesperson, can be 50 per cent of the annualised premium for the first year or 50 per cent of the total commissions on the policy calculated.
• The remaining commission after deduction of the indemnity commission is paid equally over the premium payment term.
• For pure protection products, which only offer a life insurance component, the maximum commission will be 10 per cent of the annualised premium multiplied by the length of the policy in years.
Disclosure
Customers must now be provided with a full illustration of the product they are buying to ensure they understand the potential returns on savings products as well as the effects of any charges. There is also a “free-look” period of 30 days, where insurers must provide a full refund if the buyer wishes to cancel the policy.
“The illustration should provide for at least two scenarios to illustrate the performance of the product,” said Mr Hodgins. “All illustrations are required to be signed by the customer.”
Another illustration must outline surrender charges to ensure they understand the costs of exiting a fixed-term product early.
Illustrations must also be kept updatedand insurers must provide information on the top five investment funds available annually, including at least five years' performance data.
“This may be segregated based on the risk appetite of the customer (in which case, the top five funds for each segment must be provided),” said Mr Hodgins.
Product providers must also disclose the ratio of protection benefit to savings benefits. If a protection benefit ratio is less than 10 per cent "the product must carry a warning stating that it has limited or no protection benefit" Mr Hodgins added.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets