Al Nusra gains may change Syria’s reality

Rebel push challenges the narrative that Al Assad is part of the solution to the crisis

Is the Assad regime losing ground in Syria? AFP / SANA

The capture of the northwestern Syrian city of Jisr Al Shughur by Al Qaeda-affiliated rebels on Saturday is a potentially significant turning point in that country’s bloody civil war. The loss of the city, which was yesterday subject to air strikes by government warplanes and ground battles in its south, is a further blow to the regime of president Bashar Al Assad, who has now lost his former stronghold in Idlib province. It also presents a challenge to the recent narrative that sees Mr Al Assad as an essential part of any solution to the Syrian crisis.

Working with western-backed rebel groups, Al Nusra Front seized Jisr Al Shughur just a month after it took control of the provincial capital, Idlib city. But exactly who are Al Nusra fighters and to whom do they owe allegiance? Damascus has branded the group terrorists and western sources usually define them as Al Qaeda affiliates (and it’s generally accepted that ISIL had its foundation in Al Nusra).

The force advancing in Idlib includes members of the Free Syrian Army and at least some of the weaponry being used has been supplied to that group via the US-led coalition and other regional powers. The Assad regime has accused Turkey, whose border is just 30 kilometres from Idlib, of playing a role in the assault on the city. Israel has also been an increasingly active player in the broader Syrian conflict, most recently by launching air strikes over the weekend against Hizbollah-linked targets in the south.

When the third round of the Geneva peace talks begins next month, delegates will have to take into account the emergence of Al Nusra Front as a serious player on the ground.

As it stands, anti-regime forces have effective control of the corridor between Aleppo and Mr Al Assad’s coastal stronghold of Latakia, cutting road supply lines. With Damascus also under pressure from a separate rebel group that controls the nearby southern city of Deraa, the regime will be forced to cede some of its current territory to concentrate on bolstering its capital.

This possibility, of course, raises the question of who will fill the void – and the interests of Syria’s neighbours, and the broader region, clearly lie in making sure that there is no role for the brutish ISIL. But is there room for an Al Nusra-led enclave? Once again, it comes down to selecting not who is best placed to lead the country, but who will be the lesser evil.