A year on, ISIL is still strong

Significant victories have been won against the terror group. But they must be destroyed

A video grab taken from an undated video released by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) of the Islamic State leader for the Khorasan State, Hafiz Saeed, at an undisclosed location. EPA/TTP

A year ago this week, an international coalition began airstrikes against ISIL in Iraq. A year later, the group has been weakened, but still holds significant territory. If the plan was, as one US general put it earlier this year, to “degrade and destroy” ISIL, it should be clear that only the first part has been accomplished. But destroying ISIL is still a far off possibility.

True, in the past year, there have been significant victories against the terror group, victories that show the range of those fighting ISIL. Tikrit and large parts of Iraq have been retaken by Iraqi troops. Syria’s north-eastern city of Hassakeh was retaken by Syrian regime troops, while Iraqi Kurds aided by western and Arab allies retook Kobane.

The most significant change, however, is much harder to see: ISIL has been squeezed and has not expanded. Iraq has at least been kept together. It isn’t the most optimistic message, but what could have been much worse has been avoided.

More importantly, there is an understanding both in the Arab world and the West that this needs to be a long, multi-pronged fight. A recent assessment from the US government admitted that there had been “no meaningful degradation in their numbers” – meaning, in essence, that the group is recruiting as swiftly as its members are being killed or desert.

In a way, such a sober assessment is welcome. The US military establishment has too often been too boosterish about the use of airstrikes, seeing them as a panacea for the ills of ISIL. But it should be clear that bombing missions alone are not the answer. At worst, they are not bringing an end to the terror group swiftly enough.

What is needed is a more coherent and comprehensive strategy. When Barack Obama, around this time last year, mistakenly said “we don’t have a strategy yet”, it was seized on by his opponents. But in the year since, although the strategy has improved, it is still a long way from being the sort of determined strategy that will destroy ISIL swiftly. Because it has been a brutal, terrifying year for those ruled, imprisoned and raped by ISIL, we cannot allow a second year to go by.