North Korea’s rapid nuclear and missile advances and America’s rushed deployment of a ballistic missile defence system in South Korea have increased the risks of a war on the Korean Peninsula by accident or miscalculation.
Donald Trump may be battling the deep state at home but, in hastening the defence system’s deployment, his administration has presented a fait accompli to the next South Korean president. The new president will be elected in May after South Korea’s constitutional court recently upheld the impeachment of Park Geun-hye. It was Ms Park who agreed last July to the defence system.
The issue has become divisive in South Korean politics, and one presidential hopeful, Moon Jae-in, has said the system’s deployment unnecessarily escalates tensions on the peninsula. However, the Trump administration began its placement in early March.
Mr Trump gleefully challenged diplomatic orthodoxy during his own election campaign, including US foreign policy’s longstanding principles. Yet by implementing his predecessor’s defence system decision, Mr Trump has offered an example of how he is embracing key pillars of the previous administration’s foreign policy.
Two fundamental issues raised by the placement, however, cannot be obscured.
Firstly, the deployment has been necessitated by the abysmal failure of the US-led strategy to squeeze North Korea with ever-increasing sanctions while shunning any diplomatic engagement with it. The sanctions-only approach has only encouraged North Korea to advance its nuclear weapons and missile capabilities.
In the decade since the US froze all diplomatic contact with North Korea, that reclusive nation has gone from possessing rudimentary WMD capabilities to testing advanced systems that pose a regional threat.
For example, it tested a nuclear device last September whose yield, as recorded by outside seismic monitoring stations, was twice as powerful as the atomic bomb that the US dropped on Hiroshima in 1945. Since last year, Pyongyang has also tested solid-fueled missile systems.
And secondly, the defence system is no plausible answer to North Korea’s nuclearisation. Indeed, this is a case of the remedy being worse than the disease.
The deployment could counterproductively lead to North Korea aiming to defeat the defensive system by developing greater offensive capability.
In fact, China and Russia believe that its placement is part of a larger American plan to establish a fence of anti-missile systems around them.
Let’s be clear, the defence system cannot credibly protect South Korea from its neighbour’s short-range ballistic missiles.
Designed for high-altitude intercepts, it is geared to interdict intermediate-range ballistic missiles. Given South Korea’s relatively small land size, an attack by the North may not necessitate the use of medium-range missiles. Seoul is only 40 kilometres from the demilitarised zone.
North Korea has a virtual artillery choke-hold on Seoul that the defence system’s deployment cannot neutralise. This is why the US lacks a realistic option to militarily degrade the North’s nuclear and missile capabilities without provoking Pyongyang to unleash its artillery power against Seoul or triggering an all-out war. The absence of credible techno-military options against North Korea is also underscored by the failure of the US to undermine Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile programmes through coordinated cyber and electronic strikes in recent years.
In this light, the political symbolism is greater than the military utility. The defence system, in any case, has never been battle-tested.
Rather than enhance South Korea’s security, including by reassuring its citizens, its deployment threatens to make South Koreans more insecure.
Against this background, a new strategy is needed to stem the growing risk that a small mishap could escalate to a full-fledged war. Barack Obama employed sanctions with engagement to clinch a nuclear deal with Iran, yet throughout his eight-year tenure pursued a completely different approach towards North Korea – sanctions without engagement.
Given that the North Korean threat has reached a level defying solution through technological or military means, diplomacy must come into play to reduce tensions. For long, North Korea has sought direct talks with Washington. Mr Trump, during his campaign, said that he would be willing to meet with North Korean ruler Kim Jong-un over a burger.
If the defence system placement is not to prove counterproductive, Washington must shift to a sanctions-with-engagement policy towards Pyongyang, with the ultimate goal of clinching a WMD deal as part of a comprehensive peace treaty replacing the Korean War armistice. South Korea has an even bigger stake in engagement with the North in order to reduce the costs it will bear if reunification were to ever take place.
Brahma Chellaney is the author of nine books, including, most recently, Water, Peace, and War
Company%20Profile
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EXPATS
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ETFs explained
Exhchange traded funds are bought and sold like shares, but operate as index-tracking funds, passively following their chosen indices, such as the S&P 500, FTSE 100 and the FTSE All World, plus a vast range of smaller exchanges and commodities, such as gold, silver, copper sugar, coffee and oil.
ETFs have zero upfront fees and annual charges as low as 0.07 per cent a year, which means you get to keep more of your returns, as actively managed funds can charge as much as 1.5 per cent a year.
There are thousands to choose from, with the five biggest providers BlackRock’s iShares range, Vanguard, State Street Global Advisors SPDR ETFs, Deutsche Bank AWM X-trackers and Invesco PowerShares.
The Perfect Couple
Starring: Nicole Kidman, Liev Schreiber, Jack Reynor
Creator: Jenna Lamia
Rating: 3/5
How green is the expo nursery?
Some 400,000 shrubs and 13,000 trees in the on-site nursery
An additional 450,000 shrubs and 4,000 trees to be delivered in the months leading up to the expo
Ghaf, date palm, acacia arabica, acacia tortilis, vitex or sage, techoma and the salvadora are just some heat tolerant native plants in the nursery
Approximately 340 species of shrubs and trees selected for diverse landscape
The nursery team works exclusively with organic fertilisers and pesticides
All shrubs and trees supplied by Dubai Municipality
Most sourced from farms, nurseries across the country
Plants and trees are re-potted when they arrive at nursery to give them room to grow
Some mature trees are in open areas or planted within the expo site
Green waste is recycled as compost
Treated sewage effluent supplied by Dubai Municipality is used to meet the majority of the nursery’s irrigation needs
Construction workforce peaked at 40,000 workers
About 65,000 people have signed up to volunteer
Main themes of expo is ‘Connecting Minds, Creating the Future’ and three subthemes of opportunity, mobility and sustainability.
Expo 2020 Dubai to open in October 2020 and run for six months
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Where to submit a sample
Volunteers of all ages can submit DNA samples at centres across Abu Dhabi, including: Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Centre (Adnec), Biogenix Labs in Masdar City, NMC Royal Hospital in Khalifa City, NMC Royal Medical Centre, Abu Dhabi, NMC Royal Women's Hospital, Bareen International Hospital, Al Towayya in Al Ain, NMC Specialty Hospital, Al Ain
Country-size land deals
US interest in purchasing territory is not as outlandish as it sounds. Here's a look at some big land transactions between nations:
Louisiana Purchase
If Donald Trump is one who aims to broker "a deal of the century", then this was the "deal of the 19th Century". In 1803, the US nearly doubled in size when it bought 2,140,000 square kilometres from France for $15 million.
Florida Purchase Treaty
The US courted Spain for Florida for years. Spain eventually realised its burden in holding on to the territory and in 1819 effectively ceded it to America in a wider border treaty.
Alaska purchase
America's spending spree continued in 1867 when it acquired 1,518,800 km2 of Alaskan land from Russia for $7.2m. Critics panned the government for buying "useless land".
The Philippines
At the end of the Spanish-American War, a provision in the 1898 Treaty of Paris saw Spain surrender the Philippines for a payment of $20 million.
US Virgin Islands
It's not like a US president has never reached a deal with Denmark before. In 1917 the US purchased the Danish West Indies for $25m and renamed them the US Virgin Islands.
Gwadar
The most recent sovereign land purchase was in 1958 when Pakistan bought the southwestern port of Gwadar from Oman for 5.5bn Pakistan rupees.
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Lamsa
Founder: Badr Ward
Launched: 2014
Employees: 60
Based: Abu Dhabi
Sector: EdTech
Funding to date: $15 million
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BORDERLANDS
Starring: Cate Blanchett, Kevin Hart, Jamie Lee Curtis
Director: Eli Roth
Rating: 0/5
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KEY%20DATES%20IN%20AMAZON'S%20HISTORY
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The specs
Engine: Long-range single or dual motor with 200kW or 400kW battery
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Max touring range: 620km / 590km
Price: From Dh250,000 (estimated)
Blackpink World Tour [Born Pink] In Cinemas
Starring: Rose, Jisoo, Jennie, Lisa
Directors: Min Geun, Oh Yoon-Dong
Rating: 3/5
The specs
Engine: 2.7-litre 4-cylinder Turbomax
Power: 310hp
Torque: 583Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh192,500
On sale: Now
What are the GCSE grade equivalents?
- Grade 9 = above an A*
- Grade 8 = between grades A* and A
- Grade 7 = grade A
- Grade 6 = just above a grade B
- Grade 5 = between grades B and C
- Grade 4 = grade C
- Grade 3 = between grades D and E
- Grade 2 = between grades E and F
- Grade 1 = between grades F and G
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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The Matrix Resurrections
Director: Lana Wachowski
Stars: Keanu Reeves, Carrie-Anne Moss, Jessica Henwick
Rating:****
COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
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Israel Palestine on Swedish TV 1958-1989
Director: Goran Hugo Olsson
Rating: 5/5
The specs
Engine: 2-litre or 3-litre 4Motion all-wheel-drive Power: 250Nm (2-litre); 340 (3-litre) Torque: 450Nm Transmission: 8-speed automatic Starting price: From Dh212,000 On sale: Now
'Will%20of%20the%20People'
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