Hello from The National and welcome to the View from London – your weekly guide to the big stories from our London bureau
Iran's guards
UK Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper has faced a clamour from British MPs to bring forward emergency legislation that would ban Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
The IRGC is the backbone of the Iranian regime, and opposition Conservatives and Liberal Democrats are demanding government time for an emergency bill. Ms Cooper points out she was the one who commissioned the independent reviewer Jonathan Hall to recommend a new framework to deal with the IRGC, and that she is "determined" to see it through. But no announcement is forthcoming.
I suggest the position of the IRGC is now the key to the whole conflict. A carve-up of the powerful forces would amount to excavating all parts of the regime. Should the US establish the strong hand of coercion, as it did in Venezuela, the remaining Iranian leadership would have to bargain on the IRGC.
News that Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the late Ayatollah who has close links to the IRGC, has emerged as the leading candidate to replace his father as supreme leader does not suggest a compromise mentality.
Therefore, survival by way of a new leadership formation in Tehran is another option on the table but appears to be some way off. That option would leave little or perhaps no room for the IRGC at all.
This is not about American interests. It is vital for the immediate region, where the IRGC runs proxies and has been overseeing the missile barrage of recent days, and for European countries now closely watching for the activation of its sleeper cells.
Flights needed
Ms Cooper has overseen a rapid Foreign Office response under which a charter flight will leave Oman tonight. It will be for people with vulnerabilities who are currently in the country.
With the Register Your Presence service listing 110,000 people in the UAE alone out of a total figure of 132,000, the priority is a resumption of commercial flights out of the main airports.
Regime funds
Cryptocurrency issues loom large with the IRGC. A report published on Tuesday by the Henry Jackson Society demonstrated how deeply embedded the Iranian organisation is in the digital currency sphere. Researcher Alexander Browder pointed out the UK has failed to impose sanctions on two crypto exchanges that have processed more than $1 billion of IRGC-linked transactions.
Tom Tugendhat, the Conservative MP, warned on Tuesday at an event in the House of Commons that some platforms were dependent on the Iranian group. "The IRGC uses crypto because, unsurprisingly, it's sanctioned from US currency exchanges and most European ones as well. If you're in the crypto business that provides useful liquidity, which otherwise would mean you didn't have a market price."
Full scale
Phase two of the offensive on Iran is the subject of much examination. Sources say there is a much heavier bombing campaign ready to be unleashed. A new battle rhythm against Iran “changes the nature” of the war. Wielding the capacity of the B-52 and B-1 bomber fleets is an option for the coming days.
Features of the war include the attacks by Iran's Shahed drones across the Arabian Gulf. We looked at how a layered defence of jet fighters, heavy machine-guns and internet jammers can thwart the threat.
We also looked at how "canyoning", affecting the noise when an interceptor meets nose to nose with a missile, creates a distorted aural effect near urban environments.
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