The war in Iran is nearing the one-month mark. Depending on who you talk to, it is either about to finish with a swift, star-spangled victory for America and Israel, or it is quickly becoming an endless conflict that will cause the global economy to implode.
The duality is being driven largely by US President Donald Trump and his conflicting messages about the war's direction.
On Saturday, he said the US had blown “Iran off of the map” and gave Tehran 48 hours to completely reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran responded by threatening to hit energy centres across the Gulf, prompting fears of a global energy supply shock and an escalating war. Markets in Asia opened sharply down ahead of the 48-hour ultimatum expiring.
Then, just hours before Wall Street opened, Mr Trump watered down his threat and said he was giving Iran another five days because it was engaging in productive talks with the US. Suspiciously large wagers anticipating this precise eventuality made several people extremely rich (or more rich), suggesting insider knowledge might have been used to profit from the war.
Iran has denied it is in talks with the US to end the war and it summarily rejected a reported 15-point US proposal, saying Mr Trump is “negotiating with himself”.
The most likely outcome, in my view, is that Mr Trump has no intention of making a deal with Tehran. He said as much on Saturday: “They want to make a deal. I don’t.” In case that wasn't clear enough, this morning he called the Iranian negotiators “strange.”
“They better get serious soon, before it is too late, because once that happens, there is NO TURNING BACK, and it won’t be pretty,” he wrote on Truth.
Still, diplomats around the world had rushed into action should talks take place in the coming days. Even if they do, there is little reason to think the US sees them as anything more than a time-buying exercise as the Pentagon rushes thousands of troops to the region before possible ground operations.
Mr Trump claimed the diplomatic door was open in the days before US strikes on Iran last year and again in the run-up to the launch of the war on February 28. There is no reason to think he gives two hoots about a deal now, given that the US “already won in many ways, but we haven’t won enough”.
Eye on the White House
John Bolton warns Iran threat to Strait of Hormuz is growing
Mr Trump's former US national security adviser John Bolton warned that Iran’s ability to shut the Strait of Hormuz is becoming “ever more palpable”, as the war in the Middle East rages on.
He said Washington had to fear Tehran's ability to close the Strait of Hormuz, as well as Iran's “nuclear programme and its terrorist activities”. His comments come as the Gulf is gripped by war and disruption in the strait drives up energy prices.
What's Washington talking about?
UAE in DC Iran is holding the Strait of Hormuz hostage and free passage through the waterway must be restored to ensure the stability of global markets, Dr Sultan Al Jaber said yesterday after meeting Vice President JD Vance and other US politicians. His comments capped a busy day of UAE diplomacy in Washington, with the country's Ambassador to the US, Minister of State Yousef Al Otaiba, also pushing for a “conclusive outcome” to the war that must address all Iranian threats.
Pentagon Pete The US Defence Department said on Monday it was adopting new restrictions on journalists, after a court blocked a previous press access policy, and would close an indoor workspace in favour of an area on grounds outside the main Pentagon building. Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth's move means dozens of defence reporters remain unable to access the Pentagon while America is at war.
Burning billions US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Sunday said the American military has “plenty of money” to pay for the war against Iran, but needs more to make sure it is well supplied in the future. Pentagon officials this month told US politicians that the estimated cost of the war exceeded $11.3 billion for the first six days, an amount close to $2 billion a day.
Spotlight:
CERAWeek: Venezuelan opposition leader pledges security in pitch to US oil majors
Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado on Tuesday pitched her vision for a private sector-led oil industry, in a push for majors to invest in the South American country.
“First of all, the role of the Venezuelan state will get out of the way,” she said at CERAWeek by S&P Global in Houston.
The Nobel Peace Prize winner was met with a standing ovation inside a cavernous ballroom at a hotel in downtown Houston. About 10,000 industry executives and ministers were expected to attend the week-long gathering.
Chevron is the only US company with operations in Venezuela after former president Hugo Chavez seized assets from American oil majors about 20 years ago.
Chevron chief executive Mike Wirth on Monday told those at the conference that more work needs to be done to secure conditions for investment.
Read more from Kyle Fitzgerald
Only in America
ICE agents sent to US airports in effort to ease travel congestion caused by funding fight
Immigration agents were sent to more than a dozen US airports on Monday to help with passenger screening as absences by airport workers who have not been paid in weeks caused long delays.
The Department of Homeland Security said it had sent hundreds of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents to assist in security at airports where there are significant staffing issues.
Security screeners have not been paid for weeks because of a partial government shutdown over DHS funding. They will receive their wages when the crisis is resolved, but many are calling in sick, leading to longer waits at airports.
Some passengers in Houston had to queue for more than four hours to get through security.
Read more
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