Growing tension between the Hayat Tahrir Al Sham-led government in Damascus and the Syrian Democratic Forces needs to be resolved soon and the US might need to wind down its backing of the Kurdish-led group, former US ambassador to Syria Robert Ford has said.
Mr Ford, who was US envoy to Damascus from 2011 to 2014 – the last to be based in Syria – recently travelled to the country, where he saw the challenges that Syria faces after the fall of Bashar Al Assad's regime late last year after a lightning offensive led by HTS.
“We get into this kind of ridiculous situation where this militia in eastern Syria, with tacit backing of the United States, is essentially saying we have to maintain a dominant military, security, administrative position in this prior country, and if that includes imposing our militias on Arab populations in order to protect a Kurdish minority, then we will do that,” Mr Ford told The National in an exclusive interview. “This is not going to end well.”
Newly appointed President Ahmad Al Shara, head of HTS, has made a remarkable transformation from rebel leader to international statesmen, swapping military fatigues for tailored suits, as he tries to steer Syria out of the shadow of the Assad regime.
“The economic crisis is dire,” Mr Ford said. “I mean, really dire. Government workers, their salaries are minimal and they are not getting them paid on time and the infrastructure – this is not the HTS's fault – but the infrastructure of the country is just absolutely devastated.”
During his visit, his first since he left his ambassadorial post, Mr Ford spent time in Damascus and the semi-autonomous Kurdish-controlled areas in the east of the country. While he overall gave Mr Al Shara's government a passing grade so far, he left with great unease over the tension between the new government and the SDF, whose fighters were instrumental in the defeat of ISIS.
The SDF, which still has US backing, continues to be an important ally in preventing ISIS from re-emerging in towns and villages along the Syria-Iraq border. It also administers and provides security for several prisons and camps that hold ISIS members and their families.
“I was in both Damascus and I went up to talk to the SDF people, and on both sides I sense a strong unwillingness to compromise – and that's risky,” Mr Ford said.
This week, a national dialogue meeting backed by Mr Al Shara called for armed groups to lay down their weapons or risk being considered outlaws. The comments were largely considered to be directed at the SDF, which remains a formidable fighting force.
The group, engaged in a war of attrition against pro-HTS, Turkish-backed auxiliaries in eastern Syria, did not participate in the conference.
A statement from the SDF-dominated administration in eastern Syria said the conference “did not represent the Syrian people and we will not be part of its conclusions”.
“As a part of Syria, we were not represented,” the statement said.
Mr Ford believes there is a real risk that relations between the SDF and Damascus could break down if a resolution is not reached soon.
“The longer that is unaddressed, the more likely you will have a conflict breaking out,” he said. “It is a pretty hard border between them.”
Mr Ford said the SDF were wary of the HTS-led government.
“They do not trust the government in Damascus to respect the Kurdish administrative institutions that have been set up over the last 12 years.”
The SDF's military is led by the People's Protection Units (YPG), the sister group in Syria of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). On Thursday, the jailed long-time leader of the PKK called for the group to lay down its weapons and dissolve, possibly ending a decades-long fight with Ankara.
It is unclear how this might affect the SDF in Syria, but it could further marginalise the group as it squares off against Damascus. US President Donald Trump's administration has yet to engage with Mr Al Shara and it remains unclear when, or if, it will.
Mr Ford urged Washington to engage with Damascus and to realise that its backing of the SDF may have run its course.
“It's time for the Americans to figure out that they've gotten about as much bang for the SDF buck as they're going to get,” he said.
Mr Ford said the current dynamic with an armed SDF controlling much of eastern Syria no longer made sense, with a new government in Damascus that is seeking to unite the country.