How debates over H1B visa overhaul in US could create opportunities elsewhere

Donald Trump sided with Elon Musk in supporting visas for foreign workers, but concerns linger

Speculation abounds about what president-elect Trump might actually do with the H1B programme after inauguration. Reuters

For those who followed the first election of Donald Trump in 2016, the headlines days before his inauguration in 2025 look very familiar, especially with what many are describing as a Republican “civil war” over the H1B visa programme.

H1B visas are given to highly skilled workers from overseas looking for jobs in the US, and are especially prominent in the start-up and IT sector. The employer-sponsored, non-immigrant classification allows non-US citizens to work in the country for up to six years.

During his 2016 campaign, Mr Trump sought to capitalise on his “Make America Great Again” campaign theme by promising to crack down on the H1B visa programme.

In 2017, as president, Mr Trump signed an executive order that sought to “tighten standards” and – in some cases – increase scrutiny for those applying for H1B visas. It also gave the Department of Homeland Security the power to increase workforce inspections to make sure the visas were not being misused.

“President Trump is improving America’s work visa programmes to prioritise the highest-skilled workers and protect American jobs and wages,” the Trump administration said at the time.

According to the National Foundation of American Policy, denials of the visas reached a high under Mr Trump, with a 24 per cent rejection rate in 2018, but the rate dipped under President Joe Biden. In 2020, Mr Trump also briefly suspended H1B visas.

The NFAP noted that successful court challenges to Mr Trump's enhanced H1B screening policies played a role in fewer denials in the years that followed.

Also under the Biden administration, the Department of Homeland Security announced an “H1B Modernisation Final Rule”, which sought to streamline the programme's approval process while maintaining inspections and fines for those who abuse the system.

“These changes will help US employers hire the employees they need to meet their business needs and remain competitive in the global marketplace,” read a statement from US Citizenship and Immigration Services.

Musk, Bannon and the H1B battle for Trump's influence

During his most recent campaign for the White House, however, tension in Mr Trump's coalition – consisting of technology entrepreneurs such as Elon Musk and the president-elect's loyal following of right-wing “America First” conservatives – has come to a head in a battle over the future of the visa.

It flew under the radar as Mr Trump campaigned against Vice President Kamala Harris in the general election, but it spilt out for the world to see after he secured another term in the White House.

Tesla and SpaceX chief executive Mr Musk, who supported Mr Trump's recent White House campaign and helped to fund operations, has come out in strong support of the H1B visas.

Mr Musk, who was born in South Africa and has since become a naturalised citizen of the US, has often said that the visas made it possible for him to work in the country.

“Anyone – of any race, creed or nationality – who came to America and worked like hell to contribute to this country will forever have my respect,” he posted on his social platform X.

“The reason I'm in America along with so many critical people who built SpaceX, Tesla and hundreds of other companies that made America strong is because of H-1B … take a big step back and [expletive] yourself. I will go to war on this issue with the likes of which you cannot possibly comprehend.”

Steve Bannon, a former White House aide to Mr Trump and major supporter of curtailing the visas, called Mr Musk a “toddler” for his stance on them and sarcastically suggested that someone do a wellness check on him.

Meanwhile, Vivek Ramaswamy, a one-time Republican presidential hopeful who will serve with Mr Musk in Mr Trump's Department of Government Efficiency (Doge), poured fuel on the H1B flames by defending the worker visa, while at the same time criticising US culture.

“The reason top tech companies often hire foreign-born and first-generation engineers over 'native' Americans isn’t because of an innate American IQ deficit (a lazy and wrong explanation),” Mr Ramaswamy wrote on X.

“A culture that celebrates the prom queen over the math olympiad champ, or the jock over the valedictorian, will not produce the best engineers.”

That post created a firestorm of responses from those who want to eliminate the H1B. It has so far received more than 50,000 replies.

Although it remains to be seen exactly what, if anything, president-elect Trump will do with regard to existing H1B policy, he recently shared Mr Musk's post that seemingly endorsed the programme, which many took to mean he sided with the tech billionaire.

Yet Mr Trump's past actions as president, combined with his appointment of immigration hardliner Stephen Miller as deputy chief of staff, has technology companies and those who depend on H1B on edge.

What does H1B controversy mean for other countries?

Peter Yacobucci, a political science professor at Buffalo State University, said that other countries with less stringent worker visa rules stand to benefit if Mr Trump decides to curtail or try to end the H1B programme.

But he also said that the entire controversy is a classic example of campaign promises being met with practical realities, and that the H1B changes some right-wing hardliners hope for may be tough to achieve.

“US industry has long taken advantage of these workers and excelled through their innovation based on the interchange of diverse viewpoints," Prof Yacobucci told The National. "That is exactly what the H1B and other work visas allow. Trump and his financial backers would never restrict these workers as they make them a huge amount of money."

He said other groups with less political capital might be caught in the middle of Mr Trump's strategy to appease.

“My guess is going forward Trump will attempt to satisfy both sides of this debate by quietly increasing H1B and similar work visa admissions with the tacit approval of many Democrats, while very publicly cracking down on other immigrant groups less central to American businesses' bottom lines.

“Sadly, the more cruel and more oppressive this crackdown appears, the more it appeases his Maga right.”

David Bier, director of immigration studies at the Cato Institute think tank in Washington, said there are too many misunderstandings about the H1B programme.

“Many think these are low-skilled and low-wage workers,” he told The National, adding that in reality, these workers are highly coveted and often hired for roles that are not easy to fill because of a talent gap. He also said the accusations of H1B fraud are grossly overstated.

“Some people think that there's something off about Indian immigrants getting so many of these H1Bs. They think it's due to fraud, but it's not – it's just a matter of supply and demand. In reality, these are people with the skills to do the job, and this is the one programme they can get into because of restrictions on Green Cards.”

Canada, Australia, the UAE and even India, he said, would all stand to benefit from an influx of talent if the US stopped the H1B programme.

“India is going to see a big increase in foreign direct investment from the US, as many of these employers offshore operations that they would otherwise be doing in the US,” he said , referring to the large number of Indian workers who obtain H1B visas in the US.

Meanwhile, those living in other countries and watching on the sideline are in wait-and-see mode, wondering if the shaky H1B foundation in the US might benefit their nations.

“If you guys don't like the H1B visa system of the US, then habeebi, come to Dubai,” UAE X user Hassan Sajwani told his more than 304,000 followers on the platform.