US sticks to the same Syria policy as rebels make gains

With 900 troops stationed in Syria and a new Trump administration about to take power, America's next moves are crucial

Washington is in a tentative position, monitoring developments in Syria where rebels from a designated terror group have made surprise gains against the regime of President Bashar Al Assad, which the US opposes.

Last week's lightning advance led by Hayat Tahrir Al Sham, a former Al Qaeda affiliate that has sought to present a more moderate image, saw the group take control of Syria's second-biggest city Aleppo. The attack reawakened Syria's civil war after years of stasis and has posed a new threat to the Assad regime, which once again is relying on air support from key ally Russia to help it beat back the offensive.

For the US, the complex dynamic is made trickier by the presence of about 900 American troops in Syria, mainly in the northeast and with some also stationed in the south, after posting soldiers in 2015 to help local troops fight ISIS. Though it opposes the Assad regime and has pushed back against Arab countries' moves to normalise ties with Damascus, the US has not militarily intervened in Syria's civil war.

National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said the US had “real concerns” about the goals of Hayat Tahrir. “At the same time, of course, we don't cry over the fact that the Al Assad government, backed by Russia, Iran and Hezbollah, are facing certain kinds of pressure,” he told CNN.

When asked about the continuing US troop presence in Syria, the Pentagon on Monday stressed that it is “in no way involved” in the unfolding situation around Aleppo and called for “de-escalation”, without getting into details.

“We remain fully prepared to defend and protect our personnel and assets,” Pentagon press secretary Maj Gen Pat Ryder said.

State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said nothing had changed with respect to US policy on Syria.

“Al Assad is a brutal dictator with blood on his hands, the blood of innocent civilians inside Syria, blood of his own people on his hands. Ultimately, what we want to see is a political process forward where the Syrian people get to determine who their leaders are,” he told reporters.

A US official told The National that the situation in Syria represents a “perfect storm” of unpredictability, with recent setbacks for Hezbollah in neighbouring Lebanon and Russia’s overstretched military in Ukraine both now wild cards in how the civil war evolves from here. Turkey’s support for Hayat Tahrir and opposition to US-backed Kurdish fighters is another complicating factor, the official said.

We don’t really have a dog in that fight,” the official said, adding that the US is watching how the situation evolves before president-elect Donald Trump is inaugurated on January 20.

During his first term, Mr Trump ordered air strikes against the Assad regime and attempted to pull the US forces out of Syria.

Challenge for Trump

US troops in Syria have been the target of repeated drone and missile attacks in the past.

Robert Ford, the last US ambassador to have served in Syria, serving from 2011 to 2014, told The National that the Trump administration would need to carefully consider what the US interests were and “what mission they would give the American military”, in Syria

Mr Ford predicted that the fight for Aleppo could be a “long slog” if the Assad regime made a serious bid to retake it.

He said troops “might be even weaker militarily than ever” but he does not expect the Assad regime to retake Aleppo soon.

Ethan Goldrich, who served as deputy assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern Affairs, was in charge of the Syria and Levant files from September 2021 to September this year.

He told The National that while the war had been quiet in recent years, the situation always remained unstable.

Washington said it is “not losing sleep over the Assad regime facing this new challenge” from Hayat Tahrir, but added that “we also have to keep in mind that the enemy of an enemy is sometimes still an enemy, and that’s the situation with Hayat Tahrir as a designated terrorist organisation”.

UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres on Monday urged an immediate halt to hostilities in Syria and a renewed focus on UN-enabled political resolution to the conflict.

“All parties must do their utmost to protect civilians and civilian objects, including by allowing safe passage to those fleeing hostilities,” said spokesman, Stephane Dujarric.

Mr Guterres reiterated the importance of returning to the framework outlined in UN Security Council Resolution 2254, which established a route for Syria’s political transition to end the conflict.

Syria’s civil war has killed about 300,000 people according to the UN, drawing in foreign powers and militant groups.

David Adesnik, the vice president for research and a Middle East scholar focusing on Syria at the Foundation for Defence of Democracies think tank, said calls to follow resolution 2254 carried little clout given that Mr Al Assad has been “stalling for years” without consequence.

“The UN clings to Resolution 2254 like a catechism, no matter how hopeless it seems,” said. Mr Adesnik. The UN spokesman underscored the urgency of engaging with Geir Pedersen, the UN envoy for Syria, to forge a “comprehensive path out of the conflict”.

The US ambassador to the UN, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, said that the administration of US President Joe Biden has wanted UN negotiations to take place for a “very, very long time”.

“It is the Assad regime who has ignored Security Council resolutions and refused to come to the table. The current situation on the ground is concerning,” she added.

UN humanitarian operations in the country have been “largely suspended” across Aleppo, Idlib and Hama due to security concerns. However, three border crossings from Turkey used to deliver aid to Syria remain operational.