What do the numbers tell us about Trump’s 2024 presidential election win?

Trump increases support among minorities and women, as Republicans take back control of Senate

President-elect Donald Trump, pictured with his wife Melania Trump, made important inroads into traditional democratic strongholds such as New York. Bloomberg

Trump made gains on all fronts

Donald Trump gained votes in nearly every state compared with the 2020 election, when he lost to Joe Biden. Mr Trump's strongest performances in 2024 were in states where he had significant support, further consolidating his base. In Florida and Utah, his margins over his Democratic rival Vice President Kamala Harris increased substantially, with his base strengthening its support.

Mr Trump’s campaign recaptured swing states, which were key to his victory. He won in Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, maintaining a lead across all seven major battlegrounds. In 2020, Mr Biden managed to win six out of the seven swing states, with only North Carolina going to Mr Trump. The results of this election highlight a shift in voter sentiment, particularly in states traditionally known as the “blue wall”.

Pennsylvania, which has 19 electoral votes, was crucial to Ms Harris's hopes of winning. Mr Trump was declared the winner in the state with 51 per cent of the vote, compared with 48 per cent for Ms Harris.

He also made important inroads in traditional democratic strongholds such as New York, where he closed the gap with Ms Harris by 12 points. These improvements in deep blue states suggest his outreach extended beyond traditional Republican regions.

Minorities swing to Trump

In another remarkable turn, the Republican Party received more votes from Hispanic, Asian and black voters than in 2020. Ms Harris only increased her vote share among over-65s and white college-educated women.

Support for Mr Trump increased more than 10 points among the Hispanic groups compared with 2020, particularly Hispanic men – up 18 points from 2020. In Florida’s Hispanic-majority counties, he increased his vote share by almost eight points compared with the election four years earlier.

The US black voter demographic, which consistently voted Democrat in the past, also leant slightly right. In this election, Mr Trump secured about 20 per cent of the black vote, according to an exit poll by AP, while in 2020, he only got 12 per cent of that vote.

In Dearborn, Michigan, Mr Trump seems to have won over many Arab-American voters, taking a traditionally safe Democratic bloc with 42.28 per cent going to Mr Trump, 36.26 per cent going to Ms Harris and 18.7 per cent going to third-party candidate Jill Stein. In a county where 55 per cent of the residents are of Middle Eastern heritage, the war in Gaza and Lebanon was a key issue, but Ms Harris tried to dodge it during her election campaign.

While minority support for Mr Trump surged, his largest voter bloc remained white men and women, especially non-college-educated white men, who constituted nearly 40 per cent of his base. This core demographic continues to provide him with substantial support.

Women voters on Trump

Despite early national exit polls showing Ms Harris won the support of 54 per cent of women, it is still lower than Mr Biden's tally in 2020, when he had the support of 57 per cent of women.

Mr Trump’s campaign secured incremental gains with women, especially among white and non-college-educated women, which contributed to his success in rural and suburban areas. The Democratic campaign hoped to gain more support from women, especially since this was the first election after the Supreme Court overturned the Roe v Wade ruling, ending a woman’s right to terminate a pregnancy, something Mr Trump and his party celebrated.

Generational divide narrows

A majority of younger voters across the US backed Ms Harris, but in the battleground state of Michigan, the Democrats lost significant backing from voters aged 18 to 29, the latest exit poll figures show.

In 2020, 61 per cent of Michigan voters in this age range supported Mr Biden, whereas only 46 per cent voted for Ms Harris, indicating some erosion of the Democratic hold on younger voters. Generation X ranked highest for Mr Trump – 54 per cent of voters aged 45 to 64 cast their ballot for Mr Trump.

But the Republican lost some support among older voters. In Wisconsin, he lost 11 percentage points in support from voters aged above 65, compared with 2020, while in Michigan, he lost six percentage points in support from that demographic.

Senate flips

The election also shifted the balance of power in the US Senate, with Republicans regaining control after four years of Democratic leadership. Of the 33 Senate seats contested, Republicans needed to flip just two to win a majority. They flipped three.