Economy proves decisive in Trump's US election win as Democrats falter on messaging

Nine in 10 voters expressed concern over cost of groceries, polls show

A supporter of Donald Trump celebrates his victory near the president-elect's Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach, Florida. AFP

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Donald Trump's election victory is a brutal defeat for the Democrats, whose attempts at upbeat messaging about the state of the economy failed to resonate with voters feeling the effects of the global inflationary surge.

Exit polls released by CNN on Tuesday showed an electorate largely dissatisfied with the economy today. Sixty-nine per cent of respondents said the economy was either not good or poor, while 80 per cent said their family's financial situation was worse today than it was four years ago.

Democrats had most of the data behind them: the unemployment rate climbed down from 6.1 per cent when President Joe Biden took office to 4.1 per cent today. The economy continues to defy expectations and wages are also increasing.

But as wages have gone up, so, too, have costs. Food prices at grocery shops and restaurants have risen by more than 20 per cent in the past four years, according to data from the US Department of Agriculture.

According to AP's VoteCast, nine in 10 voters were either very or somewhat concerned about grocery prices, while eight in 10 were worried about other costs, for the likes of health care, petrol and housing.

It was a messaging issue Democrats could not figure out, despite efforts by Mr Biden to lower everyday costs such as prescription drugs and credit card fees.

Mr Biden also celebrated deceleration in inflation, which has decreased from its 9.1 per cent peak in 2022 to 2.4 per cent. Still, poll after poll showed an electorate increasingly dissatisfied with their financial situations.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll before Mr Biden dropped out of the race found only 37 per cent of Americans approved of his overall job. The same proportion trusted Mr Biden to handle the economy, compared to 43 per cent for Mr Trump.

“No president, no incumbent president has survived that kind of low approval rating on the economy and then gone on to see even a successor … take the White House," said Timothy Kneeland, a professor at Nazareth University in New York. "So, number one, the economy was clearly on people's minds."

For much of the campaign, Ms Harris was unable to separate herself from Mr Biden, whether it was on the economy, immigration or the administration's handling of the Gaza war. During one disastrous cable network appearance, she seemed unwilling to do so. They both allowed for voters to pin Mr Biden's economic record on her.

Instead, it was Mr Trump's dark message on the state of the economy that left voters wanting a change of administration – even though it was his mishandling of Covid that contributed to pandemic-era economic downturn. But the jobs lost during the closing months of his first term – 2.7 million – are now back in the labour market and the economy is ticking again, defying projections of a slowdown.

But in the end, the strongest message from voters were the prices on shop shelves.

Cody Combs contributed to this report