Middle East war an important factor for US voters, poll finds

Deltapoll survey for The National points to Donald Trump gaining ground in the swing states but race remains tight

Latest updates: Follow our full coverage on the US election

A majority of American voters say the war in the Middle East is one important factor in determining who they will pick for the next US president, but domestic issues dominate ahead of the November 5 election, a poll for The National has found.

The exclusive analysis, published on Monday, also found that, while Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris is leading slightly nationally, her Republican rival Donald Trump is edging in front in the seven swing states that will decide who wins. The small differences, however, fall within the margins of error.

The Deltapoll survey of more than 3,000 adults, including 1,340 swing state voters, was conducted from October 17 to 24. When it came to the most important problems facing respondents and their families, the cost of living and the economy were the top issues – 51 per cent and 40 per cent selected them as their two main concerns, respectively.

Harris vs Trump supporters: What do you think are the most important problems facing you and your family at the present time?

Immigration, health care, reproductive rights, housing and crime were also among the most frequently mentioned. Only 10 per cent of people listed “threats to democracy” as a top personal concern – a relatively low number considering Ms Harris has made Mr Trump's “fascist” tendencies the cornerstone of her campaign. Voters remain most concerned about the cost of living and overall finances.

Ms Harris was seen as being better for the economy than Mr Trump, who defines himself as a successful businessman worth billions of dollars. Fifty per cent of respondents said she would be better than Mr Trump, whereas 45 per cent preferred him on the economy.

Foreign policy issues were further down the list of top concerns. Only 3 per cent of respondents listed the war in Gaza as one of the top three concerns facing them and their families. However, when asked the broader question of how important the war Middle East is in determining their presidential pick, 71 per cent said it was either “very” or “fairly” important, while 23 per cent said it was not important. Six per cent were unsure.

War in the Middle East

The poll “paints a picture of a dead heat at the presidential level and how America is mostly focused on domestic issues,” said Brian Katulis, senior fellow for US Foreign Policy at the Middle East Institute.

While the war between Israel and Iran-backed groups is considered existential in the region, it is much more “incidental” to most American voters, despite the large amount of attention being given to highly vocal pro-Palestinian and pro-Israeli groups, he noted. “When you look at ordinary Americans, your average voter is not going to be really focused that much on how things are going in the Middle East and what their impressions are on Trump versus Harris. … America is very much consumed with itself and its own issues.”

More than eight in 10 (81 per cent) say that foreign policy issues are important including 44 per cent who said they are very important.

In a sign reflecting the complexity of the situation in the Middle East, 44 per cent of respondents support the US continuing to send arms to Israel, 34 per cent oppose – but 22 per cent do not know what they think about the issue. Thirty-eight per cent of Harris supporters wanted weapons flows to Israel to continue, compared to 55 per cent of Trump supporters.

On voting intention, Ms Harris has a 3 per cent lead in the popular vote, but Mr Trump leads by 1 per cent in the swing states of Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada and Pennsylvania. Mr Trump's swing state edge reflects a similar trend seen in other polls that show Ms Harris has lost momentum since the summer.

Mr Trump leads among men and white voters, Ms Harris with women and ethnic minorities. There is very little switching between candidates, so the result will depend on which candidate can best motivate their supporters to turn out to vote, particularly in crucial areas like Philadelphia that lean Democrat but have historically seen low turnouts.

Trump supporters are currently more likely to say they will vote, but differences are within the margin of error.

When asked which country presents the greatest threat to peace in the world, about half of all respondents (49 per cent) said Iran. For Trump supporters, the number rises to 62 per cent, compared to 43 per cent for Harris supporters.

Fourteen per cent of respondents, meanwhile, said Israel poses the greatest threat to peace in the world.

Just under half (49 per cent) believe President Joe Biden has generally done the wrong thing when it comes to the war in Gaza. This rises to more than eight in 10 (81 per cent) Trump supporters. Just over half (52 per cent) of Harris supporters believe he has done the right thing. About a quarter (24 per cent) of Harris supporters believe Mr Biden has done the wrong thing.

Forty-six per cent also believe that Biden has done the wrong thing when it comes to the war between Ukraine and Russia, but about four in 10 (39 per cent) think the opposite, including nearly seven in 10 (68 per cent) of Harris supporters. Eight in ten (80 per cent) Trump supporters believe Mr Biden has done the wrong thing, almost identical to the 81 per cent who thought the same about the war in Gaza.

The National also asked if respondents would support or oppose the next US president making a public demand for a ceasefire in Gaza. Fifty-nine per cent of those surveyed want to see such a demand, 20 per cent oppose the idea and 21 per cent are not sure.

There is one stark difference. For those supporting Ms Harris, 71 per cent want to see a ceasefire, while less than half of Trump supporters, 48 per cent, would like to see one.

The poll found voters are split on whether they would support recognising an independent state of Palestine. Fifty-seven per cent of Harris supporters said they backed a Palestinian state but the number dropped to 30 per cent for Trump voters.

When asked whether either Ms Harris or Mr Trump would bring a swift end to the war in the Middle East, 46 per cent said the former president would expedite an end to the war while 41 per cent believed that Ms Harris would bring an end to the war faster.

The percentage who personally support Israel’s military action in Gaza (39 per cent) is the same percentage who oppose it (also 39 per cent) but support is slightly ahead of opposition among those from swing states (40 per cent versus 34 per cent). Among Harris supporters, 46 per cent oppose the action versus 32 per cent who support it, while for Trump supporters 51 per cent support it and 30 per cent are opposed.

The National / Deltapoll online survey was conducted from October 17-24 and included responses from 3,041 US adults.