Iran, China and Russia 'increase efforts to influence US presidential campaign'

Microsoft says Russia focuses on Harris campaign, while China aims at down-ballot Republican candidates

Overseas efforts to affect the campaigns of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are on the rise, according to Microsoft. AP

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Disinformation and interference efforts are increasing from Iran, China and Russia as anticipation builds for what is expected to be one of the closest US presidential elections in decades, according to Microsoft.

The Washington-based software company's Threat Analysis Centre said those efforts appear to be aimed at “undermining the US democratic process.”

Clint Watts, the analysis centre's general manager, wrote on the company's website that Russia appears to be focusing mainly on the campaign of Vice President and Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris, while China is mainly seeking to influence down-ballot Republican congressional candidates who Beijing believes advocate anti-China policies.

“In one video, Harris is depicted as allegedly making derogatory comments about [Republican presidential candidate] former president Donald Trump,” wrote Mr Watts, explaining some of the AI-generated deepfake videos allegedly coming from Russian influence operations.

“Another video spreads disinformation about Democratic vice president nominee Tim Walz, gaining more than 5 million views on X in the first 24 hours."

But Microsoft says many of the efforts appear to have minimal engagement, and therefore might not be as effective as the influence operators hope.

This is not the first time Microsoft has issued a warning about influence, disinformation, or hacking efforts aimed at disrupting and affecting the US presidential election. In this particular warning, however, the company noted a slight change in strategy in some of the efforts.

“We have also seen some actors shifting their content publishing strategy from Telegram to X to reach US audiences,” wrote Mr Watts.

Although it has denied any sort of nefarious influence operations or hacking efforts over the US presidential election, in August the FBI and other US intelligence agencies blamed Iran for hacking Donald Trump's presidential campaign.

In September, the US charged three alleged Iranian operatives accused of involvement in a hack on Mr Trump's campaign, and then trying to release the stolen information to media outlets.

In the most recent threat report issued by Microsoft, the company said that despite Iran's increased tension with Israel, it has not decreased its influence operations on the US elections.

“Additionally, the Iranian cyber group Microsoft tracks as Cotton Sandstorm has been actively scouting election-related websites and media outlets, suggesting preparations for more direct influence operations as election day nears,” the blog entry said.

“The actors' history of election interference and their pattern of cyber-influence operations underscores the persistent threat they pose.”

While there is much debate as to just how effective many of these operations are, memories are still fresh in the minds of US citizens from 2016, when Russian influence campaigns flooded Facebook with disinformation.

As a result of those operations, which went largely unchecked, social media companies such as Meta, owner of Facebook, have sought to track down and eliminate foreign interference campaigns.

The US is not alone in being hit by Iran with disinformation and hacking attacks, Microsoft said in earlier reports.

The company claimed that since 2020, Tehran has sought to amplify cyber attacks and conduct influence campaigns related to elections in Bahrain and Israel.

Fast-forward to this month, with less than two weeks until the US presidential election, Microsoft said those disinformation efforts from various countries like Iran, China and Russia might be nearing a crescendo.

“With a particular focus on the 48 hours before and after election day, voters, government institutions, candidates and parties must remain vigilant against deceptive and suspicious activity online,” Mr Watts wrote.