Election predictor Allan Lichtman laments threats and toxic reaction to 2024 forecast

Professor says his '13 keys' system shows Kamala Harris will defeat Donald Trump

Allan Lichtman, the professor of history who has predicted every US election since 1984 using his 13 keys forecasting model, said that his forecast of a Kamala Harris victory in November has prompted unprecedented vitriol from some circles.

“I’ve endured constant criticism for 42 years – I have never experienced the kind of hate that I have gotten this year,” Prof Lichtman told The National, two weeks before the 2024 US presidential election on November 5.

“I’ve gotten the most scurrilous, the most vulgar, the most violent, the most threatening type of feedback this time and I think it has to do with the kind of toxic politics since the advent of Donald Trump. We had nothing like that before Donald Trump.”

Prof Lichtman has been well known in political science and data circles for decades, but it was his 2016 prediction of a Trump victory that put him in the rarefied air of political forecasters.

At the time, that prediction went against many of the polls and opinions of commentators who did not foresee the 2016 tidal wave of Trump support leading to his victory.

Shortly after winning the White House in 2016, Mr Trump sent Prof Lichtman a note that read: “Professor, congrats, good call.”

Four years later, however, Prof Lichtman's model pointed to a Joe Biden victory in 2020, which also came to fruition.

Each US presidential election cycle seems to bring more interest in his work, and with that interest also comes criticism, with the professor accused of subjectivity and pseudoscience.

Some have also accused him of being too partisan, although he correctly points out that he has predicted both Republican and Democratic White House victories.

“My predictions are purely non-partisan,” Prof Lichtman said. “I predicted winners of the two most conservative presidents of our time, Ronald Reagan and Donald Trump.”

For all his confidence in the 13-keys model and his firm belief in his prediction for 2024, he said his unique stance of relying on those metrics and not collecting polls like other analysts puts him in the prime spot for ample stress.

“That's why I still get butterflies in my stomach on election night,” he said. “Could I be wrong? Sure. But so far my predictions have withstood the test of time.”

Prof Lichtman's record has held up for the most part, although some point to the 2000 US presidential election as a slight dent in his record.

Prof Lichtman predicted a victory for then-vice president Al Gore, and although Mr Gore won the popular vote, there was controversy over vote tallies in Florida. A Supreme Court decision gave Mr Bush the electoral college victory and the presidency – a controversy that still generates debate to this day.

“Gore, based on the actual verdict of the voters, was the winner. What happened in Florida was voter suppression,” said Prof Lichtman, 77. “And I wasn't the only one to come to that conclusion.”

With tension increasing throughout the US in anticipation of this year's election results, Prof Lichtman, like millions of other Americans, will be watching the returns on television.

“You know, I'll probably isolate myself a little bit,” he said jokingly.

Earthquake origins

Prof Lichtman's 13-keys model is the result of a similar model that was used to predict earthquakes.

“Vladimir Keilis-Borok and I collaborated,” he said, referring to the late Russian geophysicist with whom he struck up a friendship while at the California Institute of Technology.

“We were both distinguished visiting scholars and he had always wanted to use his earthquake methodology of pattern recognitions for politics, so he teamed up with me, an expert in American politics, the presidency and history, and we became the odd couple of American political research.”

Mr Keilis-Borok died in 2013, but his ideas live on with the current discussion of the 13-keys predictive model.

As for Prof Lichtman, it is not all politics all of the time for the distinguished scholar and political science celebrity. He is also an avid distance runner and has written several books.

In 1981, he also had a series of victories on the popular US game show Tic Tac Dough, hosted by famous host and disc jockey, Wink Martindale.

“I won more than $100,000 in cash and prizes on that show,” Prof Lichtman said. “I was on for four weeks and defeated 20 opponents.”

His long run on the show helped to prepare him for his countless TV and media interviews later in his career, he said.

“Not only do you have to know a lot, but you can't freeze,” he recalled. “It takes a lot of stamina. They taped five shows in one day, and there were always technical glitches and sometimes the recordings would go late into the night.”

How does Lichtman's 13-keys model work?

The 13 keys to the White House is an index of true or false responses to a set of questions, based on a simple pattern recognition algorithm.

“True” answers favour the re-election of the incumbent, while “false” answers favour the challenger. When six or more of the statements are false, the incumbent party is predicted to lose.

Lichtman's 13 keys to the White House

Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections.

Contest: The candidate is nominated on the first ballot and wins at least two thirds of the delegate votes.

Incumbency: The sitting president is the party candidate.

Third party: A third-party candidate wins at least 5 per cent of the popular vote.

Short-term economy: The National Bureau of Economic Research has either not declared a recession, or has declared it over before the election.

Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds the mean growth during the previous two terms.

Policy change: The administration achieves a major policy change during the term comparable to the New Deal, under Franklin Roosevelt, or the first-term revolution under Ronald Reagan.

Social unrest: There is no social unrest during the term that is comparable to the upheavals of the post-Civil War Reconstruction Era or of the 1960s, and is sustained or raises deep concerns about the unravelling of society.

Scandal: There is no broad recognition of a scandal that directly touches on the president.

Foreign or military failure: There is no major failure during the term comparable to Pearl Harbour or the Iran hostage crisis that appears to significantly undermine America's national interests or threaten its standing in the world.

Foreign or military success: There is a major success during the term comparable to the winning of the Second World War or the Camp David Accords that significantly advances America's national interests or its standing in the world.

Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is a national hero comparable to Ulysses Grant or Dwight Eisenhower, or is an inspirational candidate comparable to Mr Roosevelt or Mr Reagan.

Challenger charisma: The challenger party candidate is not a national hero comparable to Mr Grant or Mr Eisenhower and is not an inspirational candidate comparable to Mr Roosevelt or Mr Reagan.

– Source: Allan Lichtman, The Thirteen Keys to the Presidency