Allentown's Arab businesses torn between the state of the economy - and the state of the Middle East

A crucial constituency in battleground Pennsylvania has two things on its mind

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As Election Day approaches, the Arab-American community in an unassuming former steel town in Pennsylvania is struggling to reconcile its desire for a strong economy at home and lasting peace in the Middle East.

People are scared, said Joseph Elias, who founded Elias Market in Allentown more than four decades ago. The Lebanese-born businessman has only recently returned from his homeland, where Israeli forces have bombarded Beirut after launching a ground invasion against Hezbollah.

“I went through Beirut and I could smell … it's like a chemical or something from the bomb. I was … going to Beirut airport – it's bad,” he told The National.

With war threatening to engulf his homeland, Mr Elias – and others in Allentown's Arab-American community – are concerned over how the coming US presidential elections will affect them as well as friends and family back in Lebanon.

Pivotal swing state

Pennsylvania is a battleground state that is home to about 126,000 Arab Americans, according to the Arab American Institute. Lehigh County, where Allentown is, voted Democrat in 2016 and 2020.

It was Pennsylvania that delivered Joe Biden the presidency in 2020 after he won the state by 1.2 per cent. And the state could determine this year's election as well.

A recent Quinnipiac University poll showed the 2024 race was a virtual dead heat between Republican nominee Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris, with both needing the Keystone State's 19 electoral votes to help secure the win.

Both candidates understand the high stakes. Ms Harris, who unveiled her economic agenda in Pittsburgh in September, held a town hall event in a Philadelphia suburb on Monday while Mr Trump campaigned in Oaks, an unincorporated community 29km north-west of Philadelphia. He also held rallies in Scranton and Reading last week.

While Ms Harris holds a three-point edge in the state overall, Mr Trump holds narrow leads on the economy (plus 2) and the conflict in the Middle East (plus 1).

Both issues are weighing on Mr Elias's customers. “They have family overseas and they all worry about them because people are fleeing their homes … people are displaced and leaving their homes and going somewhere else to live,” he said. “Some of them are staying in schools now but I hope things get better.”

Elias Market has not felt the sting of inflation – which Mr Elias credits to buying the right products – but he has noticed it affecting his customers. “Lots of people depend on us. Some people cannot afford stuff. I give it to them a little bit cheaper. I give it to them for free. I donate to a lot of organisations. They need help. They ask for help. We're here to help.”

At a shop next to the Americus Hotel in central Allentown, a question about the economy led to a heated discussion between the owner, who identified himself only as "AB", and the Syrian-American owner of the Americus, Albert Abdouche.

When asked about his thoughts on why he trusts Mr Trump to handle the economy, AB said: "Yeah, he's an [expletive]. We got no respect for when he talks but he's a businessman."

When pressed on how the economy had changed since Mr Trump left office, he responded: "My dad's been in and out of the hospital … almost for the past three years. Just closed his business down. Need I say more?"

Mr Abdouche interjected with a question on the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine.

“How can he settle that? Listen to him,” he said.

AB responded: "I'm not sure. I'm not sure who America benefits in the wars outside here."

Inflation bites

The Americus has become a nexus of political activity in Allentown. A 'Syrians for Trump' event was held there on Friday night. It will also host a Democratic event later this month.

Speaking to The National, Mr Abdouche said he was torn between the economy and wars in the Middle East and Ukraine: while he trusted Mr Trump to take better care of the economy, Ms Harris was his preferred foreign policy candidate.

As a real estate businessman, Mr Abdouche bemoaned house prices, which remain a stubborn obstacle in taming inflation.

According to a report from the Case-Schiller National Home Price Index published in April, US home prices have increased by 47 per cent since 2020, to the detriment of potential homeowners. The average home in Allentown is valued at $285,500 today, up 6.6 per cent year-on-year, according to the Zillow Home Values Index. The median rent is $1,600, an annual increase of 3.22 per cent.

Numerous factors have played into rising housing costs including a lack of availability, high interest rates forcing homeowners to stay put and businesses to spend more on capital to build inventory.

And while he believes Ms Harris's plans to build three million homes and provide a $25,000 credit to first-time homebuyers, Mr Abdouche said more should have been done sooner, tying her economic record to President Joe Biden's.

“Why is she is waiting to do it next year? Why can't she do it [now]?” he asked.

Inflation has also taken a toll on Soumaya & Sons, a Lebanese bakery that opened its doors in 1979. Christopher Ballan, who now manages the bakery that his parents founded, told The National that profits have not been the same since the Covid-19 pandemic.

“Any small business … that says they're killing it, they're lying,” he said.

Food prices swelled in 2022, and have risen 28 per cent since 2019. Although he declined to say who he would vote for, Mr Ballan said the economy is the most important issue for him in this election.

His views are in line with mainstream Pennsylvania voters who are concerned about their finances. Inflation was named as the top or second-most important issue by 62 per cent of Pennsylvania's voters, with 45 per cent pinpointing “economic growth and jobs” as one of their two most important issues, according to a Monmouth University poll released last month.

Mr Ballan said not only has inflation limited his own purchasing power at the grocery shop, but customers are buying less at the bakery than before the pandemic.

Soumaya & Sons has recorded a decrease in catering orders as well. “We found the downgrade in the amount of stuff that people buy. They'll limit it now … four people in their household, they'll buy four spinach pies for – enough for that moment, there's not that excessive of a buy-in,” he said.

“Profits are not there any more where they were because of the price to get the goods.”

November in focus

Most of the people who spoke to The National in Allentown demurred when asked who they would vote for come November, not wishing to mix politics with business. Mr Elias said he was trying to stay out of politics.

AB was more direct. “I hope Trump wins,” he said.

While he admitted to his admiration for Mr Trump, Mr Abdouche was unsure where his vote will go in a few weeks.

Although he voted for Mr Trump in 2020, the unfolding crises abroad have weighed heavily on Mr Abdouche.

“The Syrian people here … are confused. Some of them for Trump, some of them for Harris,” he said.

Mr Abdouche believes “most” Syrians in the community will back Mr Trump because they favour his handling on the economy. But when asked which issue he was most concerned about, he paused to consider before answering.

“I'm only worried about international war. That's what I care about. I care about the economy in the United States. I wish I could get both.”