Gaza could play significant role in outcome of US presidential election

'If something is not done, Democrats could kiss Michigan goodbye,' pollster says

Palestinians walk among the rubble of destroyed buildings in Al Ramal neighbourhood after an Israeli air strike in Gaza city. EPA

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The administration of US President Joe Biden's ongoing support of Israel amid the war in Gaza continues to sap Arab-American support for the Democrats, even though Mr Biden has left the race, new polling data shows.

Arab Americans have typically voted Democratic in far larger numbers than Republican, but this year, former president Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are essentially tied at 42 per cent to 41 per cent, the Arab American Institute found. Party affiliation is at 38 per cent each.

Crucially, Arab Americans who say they support Mr Trump report a higher likelihood of going out to vote on November 5 than do backers of Ms Harris. She is 18 points behind the level of community support that Mr Biden enjoyed in 2020. That year, amid record-high turnout, he won the Midwestern battleground state of Michigan by 154,000.

With about 200,000 Arab Americans living in Michigan, a collapse in Democratic support this year could be enough to see Mr Trump win the state. Without Michigan's 15 electoral college votes, Ms Harris would have a much more difficult path to the White House.

For Arab-American voters, Gaza remains a top issue, along with jobs and the economy. Eight in 10 Arab Americans view Gaza as important in determining their vote, the AAI poll conducted from September 9-20 found. Israel has destroyed most of the enclave and killed more than 41,700 people since the Hamas attacks of October 7, which killed 1,200 people.

The survey found that Ms Harris would make quick gains if she were to demand an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and the unimpeded delivery of humanitarian aid. Such a move would see her approval among Arab Americans rise to about 60 per cent.

The institute's president, James Zogby, who writes a column for The National, said it is a low-risk proposition for Ms Harris to take a stronger stand on the Israel-Gaza war. Not only would she gain Arab-American support, but younger and non-white voters would flock to her in numbers that would far offset any drop in support from pro-Israel voters.

“Clearly, if something is not done, rather decisively, Democrats could kiss Michigan goodbye,” Mr Zogby said.

Like Michigan, Pennsylvania has a sizeable Arab-American population that could affect whether the state's 19 electoral college votes go to Mr Trump or Ms Harris.

While Ms Harris has garnered more support from Arab-American voters than Mr Biden had, her party's refusal to allow any pro-Palestinian voices at the Democratic National Convention in August and lacklustre outreach efforts from her campaign have further alienated would-be supporters.

National polls have frequently put Ms Harris ahead of Mr Trump, including an Emerson College survey released on Thursday that had her up 50 points compared to 48 for Mr Trump.

But national polls matter little when the election will be decided by a few thousand votes in swing states.