US voters divided on Israel-Gaza policy only weeks from election, poll finds

In swing states, a slim majority has more trust in Donald Trump on foreign policy

Either Donald Trump or Kamala Harris will take office in the White House. Reuters / AP

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US voters are divided along party lines on Israel-Gaza policy, according to a new poll unpacking the electorate's views on foreign policy, only weeks from the presidential election between Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican former president Donald Trump.

Polling released on Tuesday by YouGov and the Institute for Global Affairs (IGA) found a majority of Democratic voters – 66 per cent – think the US should either end support for Israel's war in Gaza or make that support conditional on a ceasefire, compared with 39 per cent of Republicans.

A large majority of US policymakers have maintained a pro-Israel stance over the course of Israel's war in Gaza, which has killed more than 41,400 Palestinians since the October 7 Hamas-led attacks.

Democrats have represented the vast majority of the dissent against the war and the “vote uncommitted” protest movement has been focused on pushing Democratic candidates to stand up for Palestinians.

The uncommitted movement could threaten Ms Harris's odds in swing states such as Michigan, which has a large Arab-American population. The movement this month said it would not endorse Ms Harris after she missed a deadline for a meeting with the group to discuss the war in Gaza and a potential arms embargo on Israel.

The poll found the majority of Americans have more trust in Ms Harris on foreign policy – nationally, 53 per cent of US voters polled trust the Vice President to “pursue a foreign policy that benefits Americans”.

But in swing states, Mr Trump holds this advantage and slim majorities believe he is “more likely to end the wars in Ukraine and Gaza”, “reform America's immigration system for the better” and “respond effectively if China attacks Taiwan”.

“With razor-thin margins expected, campaigns ignore these nuances at their peril,” Mark Hannah, a senior fellow at IGA, said in a statement.

“The path to the White House runs through states where voters are deeply sceptical of the foreign policy status quo and America’s global footprint.”

Mr Trump's first term in the White House featured pivots from Washington's foreign policy status quo, and concerns are high that, if re-elected, his close relationship with some authoritarian figures and his stated intention to upend parts of the traditional US alliance structure could pose major geopolitical challenges.

The Trump-aligned right-wing House Freedom Caucus in Congress has been an outlier, with its demands to temper US support for Ukraine.

Mr Trump has described Russian President Vladimir Putin as “pretty savvy” and “a genius”, and has threatened to make support for Nato countries contingent on them meeting the alliance's stated goal of all members dedicating 2 per cent of their GDP to defence.