The first Trump-Biden debate of 2024 is this week. Here is what's at stake

Inflammatory rhetoric and intense preparation in run-up to Thursday's CNN debate

Donald Trump and President Joe Biden. AFP

It is a major spectacle every election year, but the premier 2024 presidential debate between US President Joe Biden and his predecessor Donald Trump comes with some particularly serious baggage.

CNN is hosting the prime time debate on Thursday, June 27, at 9pm EST. It will run for 90 minutes with two commercial breaks.

The stakes are high in an election cycle that has been defined by existential rhetoric and razor-thin margins in the polls.

Trump has been intensifying his characteristic inflammatory accusations, claiming at a weekend rally that Mr Biden would come to the debate “all jacked up” on drugs.

In a post on Truth Social on Monday, Trump challenged Mr Biden to take a drug test before the debate, saying that he himself would “immediately” agree to take one.

Meanwhile, Mr Biden has continued to present himself as a defender of democracy, and his Republican opponent as an outright threat to the US government, in part due to his role in the January 6, 2021, insurrection at the Capitol.

Mr Biden and Trump are, according to some polls, tied at 49 points each, and the debate will provide a rare opportunity to sway undecided voters.

That is no small feat: enthusiasm for either candidate remains relatively low, with 55 per cent of US adults saying they are not satisfied with either of the candidates, according to a recent PBS/NPR/Marist poll.

And both have glaring flaws that will be easy targets for soundbite-worthy jabs.

Controversial issues

According to CNN, moderators Jake Tapper and Dana Bash are expected to strictly enforce debate rules and will use all available tools to “enforce timing and ensure civilised discussion”.

The exact topics of their questions are unknown, but the candidates are coming into the debate with issues that have dominated the campaign.

Trump this year became the first former president in US history to be convicted of a crime, although the conviction became simply another way for the right-wing Republican leader to rally his base.

One recent email blast to his supporters had in its subject line: “One month until all hell breaks loose. They want to sentence me to death.” – a reference to a July sentence hearing in which Trump could face jail time.

Finance reports from last week showed the Trump campaign, along with the Republican National Committee and an allied Super Pac, raised $171 million in May, leaving Trump and the committee with more cash than Mr Biden and the Democratic National Committee.

The Biden campaign has, until recently, largely distanced itself from Trump's conviction, as the President works to avoid the appearance of politicising the Justice Department. His son was convicted of a crime this month.

But that has appeared to change in recent days with a few campaign advertisements and verbal attacks, as Mr Biden is seemingly now ready to cash in.

Age is also a factor this election cycle: Trump is 78 and Mr Biden is 81. Both have become known for off-topic rambling and even struggling to complete their sentences.

But the pressure to perform is decidedly sharper for Mr Biden, who has borne the brunt of the criticism over his age.

A live television showdown against Trump, who relishes making quick jabs, could prove difficult for Mr Biden, who performs better in forums like this year's State of the Union address to Congress.

Mr Biden has also struggled with a lifelong stutter, a difficulty he has discussed openly throughout his political career.

The President's foreign policy is likely to be another major target.

The Biden administration has faced intense criticism, including from sections of the Democratic Party, over its support for Israel during the war in Gaza.

Republicans, meanwhile, have portrayed the administration's foreign policy as weak.

Amid growing concerns that Mr Biden's stubborn support for Israel could affect the youth and progressive vote, Democrats on Monday were centring their focus on a campaign issue that has ignited the “blue” turnout: reproductive health care.

Mr Trump appointed three of the sitting Supreme Court justices, flipping the court's conservative majority and creating the pathway to the 2022 reversal of Roe v Wade, which for almost 50 years made abortion a federal right.

The issue has proved to be a rallying cry for local and state-level Democratic voters, and the Biden campaign is hoping to capitalise on this in November.

How are Trump and Biden preparing?

Mr Biden and his team are preparing behind closed doors at the historic Camp David site, reserved for the most consequential of presidential meetings and summits.

The White House and the Biden campaign have been tight-lipped on the specifics of the President's debate preparations.

But it is known that Mr Biden is practising with some of his top advisers, among them National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and Bob Bauer, Mr Biden's personal lawyer who may be reprising his 2020 role playing Trump during mock debate sessions.

Trump, meanwhile, has spent the week on the campaign trail, rallying his base and criticising Mr Biden for “hiding”.

“While Joe Biden’s advisers force him to hide away at Camp David for some much-needed rest, President Trump is keeping up with his busy campaign schedule,” spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt said in a statement.

During an event in the Democratic stronghold of Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Trump told Fox News “this is really the best debate prep”.

“I look forward to the debate, but the debate's not the big deal. The big deal is, what have you done?" Trump said.

"We had four great years and he's had three and a half years of destruction of our country."

Debate format: Trump's friend or foe?

Mr Biden and Trump faced off in a series of debates in 2020, with the first one spiralling into chaos – perhaps the most memorable moment being when Mr Biden, annoyed by Trump's constant interruptions, blurted out: “Will you shut up, man?”

CNN seems to be expecting, and working to mitigate, the obvious risks of a repeat: only the candidate whose turn it is to speak will have their microphone turned on.

Mr Bauer told Politico last week that this setting “is a serious format … in which the candidates can be heard, but they’re the only ones who are heard and they’re performing for the country, not performing for a select audience”.

Trump fared better in the second debate of 2020 in which the same microphone rule was in effect.

It was in this format that the right-wing populist ended up delivering a more collected and coherent defence of the chaos of 2020, in which his administration gave a confused response to the global Covid-19 pandemic and the US had erupted in protests after the police killing of George Floyd.

Kate Bedingfield, Mr Biden's former White House communications director, noted in commentary to CNN: “I was part of then-candidate Biden’s debate prep in 2020 when he and President Trump participated in two debates, one with muted mics and one without.

"I believe the muted mics may mean the country sees a more disciplined, controlled former president Donald Trump than many are expecting.

“President Biden should prepare for that.”

The Trump campaign is meanwhile telling its base that “CNN's anti-Trump bias will likely be on display Thursday night”.

This week, the network cut off Ms Leavitt after she said one of the debate moderators, Tapper, had engaged in “biased coverage” of her boss.

Trump will, however, get the last word on Thursday night: as decided by a network coin toss, the Republican candidate will be the last to speak in closing statements.