Counting begins in Ireland's election after exit poll shows tight three-way race

Fine Gael, Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein all did well in first-preference voting

Sinn Fein's Mary Lou McDonald celebrates at a Dublin election count centre. PA

Counting votes for Ireland’s general elections began on Saturday, after exit polls showed an almost even split between the three main parties.

Its main opposition party Sinn Fein is on course to win the popular vote for the second election in a row, holding 21 per cent of first-preference votes, according to the Ipsos B&A Exit Poll. But that is not enough to form a government.

Instead, the two largest parties in Ireland’s current centre-right coalition, Fine Gael and Fianna Fail, could return to power with 21 per cent and 19.5 per cent of first-preference votes, according to the same poll. This would make it Fine Gael's fourth consecutive term in office, unprecedented in Irish politics.

Voters also expressed dissatisfaction with the current Prime Minister Simon Harris, while Sinn Fein's leader Mary Lou McDonald's popularity remained strong, according to the exit poll. Most voters said they would choose Fianna Fail's leader Micheal Martin, as Ireland's new Prime Minister, at 35 per cent, while 34 per cent preferred Ms McDonald. This is double the approval for Mr Harris as the next leader was 17 per cent.

The counting could take days, owing to Ireland’s system of proportional representation with a single transferable vote, where voters indicate their first and subsequent choices for the candidate on the ballot box. The poll suggests that more than three parties may be needed to form a majority. All eyes will then likely turn to the potential search for coalition partners once the final results are announced.

Leaders look to coalition

“Forming a government will depend on two of the three being able to co-operate with one another,” said Lisa Keenan, a political scientist at Trinity College Dublin.

The leaders of Fianna Fail and Fine Gael have consistently ruled out entering into a future coalition with left-wing Sinn Fein, which served as the political wing for IRA militants during the Troubles.

Ms McDonald said she wanted to talk to other parties on the left of the political spectrum about the potential for forming a government.

“We have now confirmed that we have broken the political mould here in this state. Two party politics is now gone. It’s consigned to the dustbin of history, and that in itself is very significant. The question now arises for us, what do we do with that?" Ms McDonald said.

“If you want my bottom line, the idea of Fianna Fail and Fine Gael for another five years, in our strong opinion, is not a good outcome for Irish society.”

Fianna Fail's Mr Martin said it “remains to be seen” how quickly a government can be formed. He said: “It will be challenging. This is not easy.”

Fine Gael leader Simon Harris thanked the electorate for the “mandate” they gave him and his party and said he was “cautiously optimistic”.

“What I am very confident about is that my party will have a very significant role to play in the years ahead, and I’m cautiously optimistic and excited,” he said.

The Greens – the third party in the last coalition – appear to have done badly. “We took the decision to go into government in 2020, we did so with our eyes open, we knew the risk, but for the Green Party, the risk has always been paid off with delivering on policy and we've been able to do that,” Green Party leader Roderic O'Gorman said.

War in Gaza

Ireland has seen a booming economy after it attracted major US tech and pharmaceuticals companies seeking a base in Europe. But Donald Trump’s pledge to cut corporate tax for companies making their products in America threatens Ireland's economic model. The Irish Fiscal Advisory Council warned in September that just three US firms paid 43 per cent of corporation tax in 2022.

Concerns around Ireland’s housing and cost of living crisis, anti-immigration sentiment have drawn its electorate away from traditional parties. Elsewhere, the exit poll showed: Social Democrats (5.8 per cent), Labour (5 per cent), Greens (4 per cent), Aontu (3.6 per cent), People Before Profit-Solidarity (3.1 per cent), and Independent Ireland (2.2 per cent). Independents and other candidates were on 14.6 per cent. There is a margin of error of 1.4 per cent.

The war in Gaza also played a role in the run up to the election. Ireland's parties agree on the need for a ceasefire, but some say the government's response has fallen short, particularly after delaying a contentious bill that would effectively ban trade trufrom Israeli-occupied settlements in the West Bank.

Independent Clare Daly, who served as a member of European parliament, is among those who have called for a strong stance against Israel, and is running for a seat in Dublin Central. She and fellow Irish MEP were criticised in Brussels for their position on Ukraine, that was seen as supportive of Russian President Vladimir Putin.