Majority of British voters want Israel arms ban, exclusive poll shows

Deltapoll survey for The National shows a third of voters will choose the next government based on Gaza policy

Israel's war in Gaza has overshadowed the British elections, with voters asking tough questions of all parties. EPA

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More than half of the UK public want to see the next British government ban arms sales to Israel amid opposition to the war in Gaza, an opinion poll for The National has found.

Almost half of the UK voting public want to see the next government recognise a Palestinian state, with support for the move running at five to one among Labour Party supporters.

Two thirds of 18 to 24 year olds and 51 per cent of 25 to 34 year olds lined up behind the move. Labour and Conservative figures have said they are committed to the move.

The Deltapoll survey of more than 2,000 adults, carried out between Monday and Wednesday, also showed that a third of respondents said the war in Gaza would play a role in determining which party they would vote for in the July 4 election.

The 32 per cent of people who said it was very or fairly important rose to 37 per cent when only Labour voters were taken into account. Labour has faced a backlash over its support for the government's line on the war in Gaza and Labour leader Keir Starmer is expected to face backbench pressure for a more robust policy if he becomes prime minister next week.

"In the UK, it is clear there is widespread public support for a range of measures to be taken by the new government to address the war in Gaza," pollster Joe Twyman said about on the findings.

"Most popular is for the UK government to make a public demand for a ceasefire, a policy supported by nearly two thirds. Banning arms sales to Israel and recognising an independent state of Palestine are also popular, with significantly more people supporting those actions than opposing them."

UK arms licences that allow weaponry and other equipment to be exported from the country to Israel's defence industry have continued to operate throughout the conflict. The poll found 54 per cent of respondents want the next government to cease those licences.

The exercise showed that Labour continues to poll nationwide at double the level of the Conservatives, securing 42 per cent of support compared with 20 per cent for the governing party.

The survey found that supporting a negotiated diplomatic settlement between the Israelis and Palestinians was by far the favoured approach to the conflict, with 43 per cent backing that policy. The survey showed 17 per cent support the UN having a role to end the bloodshed, while seven per cent back the Israeli military action.

Labour supporters, and particularly young people, are more likely to see Gaza as an important issue in the UK election. More than half of 18 to 24 year olds and 25 to 34 year olds say Gaza is important (55 per cent and 57 per cent, respectively) to how they will vote.

Despite backing for the UK government's handling of the Ukraine war, 48 per cent support the principle of a negotiated diplomatic settlement to end the fighting. The UK is one of strongest backers of Ukraine and was among the first countries to send military support to Kyiv.

When asked whether the UK government has generally done the right or wrong thing when it comes to the war in Gaza, there was a clear division among the public. A total of 30 per cent said the policy had been right, but 26 per cent said it was the wrong approach. The findings were even tighter among Labour-only voters, with 27 per cent endorsing UK policy and 26 per cent opposing it.

An immediate ban of British arms sales to Israel would only have limited real-world effect, with experts saying UK arms deliveries were minor and that Israel exported more weapons to Britain than it received.

“Arms sales from the UK to Israel are pretty negligible so Israel isn't so worried about that,” said Paul Beaver, a former British army colonel. Most of the arms were for technology parts on the F-35 stealth fighter, which are part of international agreements, he added.

The public were not as split on Ukraine, with 49 per cent saying the government has generally done the right thing when it comes to the war, and 20 per cent saying the UK has done the wrong thing. There was also strong support for a public demand for a full ceasefire in Gaza, with 62 per cent giving their backing and 12 per cent opposed. Among Labour voters, the figure rose to 69 per cent.

The British public sees opportunities to forge closer links with the EU, with 46 per cent favouring a return to the bloc. That figure rises to 52 per cent when those who said they did not know are taken out of the equation, as a referendum would do.

Polling on the UK’s place in the world shows that 57 per cent think the number of migrants in the country, one of the most contested issues in the election campaign, should decrease, and 40 per cent say it should decrease by a lot.

The survey of British adults by Deltapoll asked how many would vote for the two US presidential candidates set to face off in November. A total of 46 per cent would lend support to President Joe Biden and 24 per cent back Donald Trump, a figure that rises to 60 per cent among supporters of the Nigel Farage-led Reform UK.

The poll was in keeping with findings in a Deltapoll survey carried out for The National last September. It found that less than a third (29 per cent) believe Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s government possesses a clear vision for the UK’s future.

The results of that poll, carried out from September 11 to 15 last year, also revealed that voters back Mr Starmer over Mr Sunak on foreign policy, with four in 10 (40 per cent) saying the leader of the opposition would do a better job than the Prime Minister at representing Britain in the global arena.

The findings also showed that many believe Mr Sunak is doing the wrong thing when it comes to a host of policies. A total of 70 per cent surveyed this week said Mr Sunak was doing the job quite badly or very badly.

Weighting the net good figure against the net bad, Mr Starmer's current net rating was +4, well ahead of Mr Sunak's -44, and also ahead of Boris Johnson's rating of +2, one week before the last election.

Deltapoll interviewed 2,077 British adults online between 24th to 26th June 2024. The data have been weighted to be representative of the British adult population as a whole.