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Outsider Akhmed Yakoob believes "this election is mine to lose" as he looks to unseat the most senior frontbench Muslim Labour MP in the July 4 UK general election.
Shabana Mahmood stands to become the UK's justice secretary if her party wins the general election, but first she must overcome the challenge from the independent candidate, who is a local solicitor.
Amid the Palestine flags and rundown housing of Ms Mahmood's Birmingham Ladywood constituency lies a discontent that could well unseat her.
Confident, pugnacious and armed with about 195,000 TikTok followers, Mr Yakoob aims to use his outspoken position on the Gaza war to cause a significant upset in the election.
He also comes equipped with a turn of phrase that he uses to breakthrough with younger Muslims who may previously have been seen as part of a Labour bloc.
“Strike the shepherd and the sheep will scatter,” he tells The National at his spacious lawyer’s office in Birmingham, when asked what it would mean if he defeated the Labour frontbencher.
The risk of the UK's more than three million Muslim voters deserting Labour over Gaza is being taking seriously by the party. More officials have been sent to what were once strongholds, including the pro-Palestine politician George Galloway’s seat in Rochdale.
Polls suggest several independents have a chance to defeat Labour candidates. Analysis by Sky News shows that in areas with a Muslim population of more than 20 per cent, Labour lost 17.9 points from their vote share in May’s local elections.
Ladywood for Labour?
Mr Yakoob has accused Ms Mahmood of ignoring the plight of Gazans by last year abstaining in a parliament vote calling for a ceasefire in the enclave.
But Labour sources said the accusation does Ms Mahmood a great disservice, as "Shabana has been a lifelong supporter of the Palestinian people".
It has also been reported that Ms Mahmood, a member of the shadow cabinet, played a significant role in pushing for a shift in Labour's position on Gaza away from the line that matched the ruling Conservative party's support for Israel exercising self-defence.
Mr Yakoob, a criminal lawyer, said his greatest achievement had been to unsettle Labour to the point it has now declared in its manifesto that it will recognise a Palestinian state.
While Ladywood is one of Labour’s safest seats – Ms Mahmood received a 28,000 majority in the 2019 election – Mr Yakoob came close to causing an upset in last month’s West Midlands mayoral poll by drawing 70,000 votes away from the party, in a contest Labour won by 1,508 votes.
That feat could well be repeated in the deprived wards of Ladywood, where Muslims make up 43 per cent of its 80,000 voters.
Mosque moment
Mr Yakoob is rather quick to take credit for Labour’s change of policy on Palestine. The mayoral election forced the party to “change their Gaza policy” and “I changed it”, he says.
He explains that he was so distressed by the images from Gaza that he went to his local mosque and asked “how I do contribute to this cause, how can I help the Palestinians?” He decided to launch a political campaign focused on young people.
“The youngsters realise that whatever politicians are doing is wrong,” he says. “People voted for me because they want to teach the politicians a lesson.”
Ladywood should have an MP that represents their views, he adds. He is bullish too about his chances of winning in the July 4 vote. “I have a very good chance of unseating Shabana Mahmood ... the love that the constituents have been showing me over the last couple of months has been overwhelming," he says.
But neither that swell of affection nor TikTok has always worked in his favour. He is under investigation by the Solicitors Regulation Authority for video posts that promoted a false claim of racism against a teacher campaigning for Labour. Mr Yakoob later deleted the posts.
Ms Mahmood, who would also become the first female Labour Lord Chancellor in government, tells The National that she had “never been afraid to speak up for our community, and I will never stop", having been born and raised in Birmingham since her family arrived from rural Kashmir.
“On 4 July, we all have a choice: 14 more years of Conservative chaos, or change with a Labour government," she says. "At this election, I want to put the voice of Brummies [Birmingham residents] at the heart of a Labour government.”
Muslim heartland
Mr Yakoob’s strongest support base is in the Alum Rock Road area, where his “For Gaza” posters are ever-present in shops selling Middle Eastern food and clothes.
He says 1,000 supporters turned up at a rally to listen to him speak, which contrasted with The National's report on a Conservative candidate’s meeting on the same evening in Sussex that attracted 22 elderly voters.
Alum Rock will play an important role in the vote as it has just been included in the Ladywood constituency under boundary changes. It adds an inner-city area where the population is 94 per cent black and Asian, with the majority having roots in Pakistan, Afghanistan and Somalia.
It is a key hub for Mr Yakoob's support, certainly among young voters. Phone shop worker Ahmed Al Qarna, 26, called him a “good guy” and that “he would be good for the Palestinian people, and that makes people very positive towards him”.
“Akhmed is pretty much the only one who is speaking out against the genocide in Gaza," said airport employee Umar Khan, 22. "We need people like him to co-ordinate the younger generation."
But Bilal Khan, 55, a lifelong Labour supporter, said “Shabana has done a lot for this constituency” and “we know how hard she has pushed for the Palestinian issue in Labour”.
Another Labour voter, Afisal Shah, 48, a shopkeeper originally from Pakistan, said he would not vote for Mr Yakoob because “the focus can’t just be on Palestine”.
“We must look how to improve our own lives in our own country. We have to think about our nation first, then Gaza."
Well-tailored dynamic
Ms Mahmood’s apparent absence from the constituency has been another source of criticism, although Labour sources say the politician, born and bred in Birmingham, spent as much time as she could in the city, despite the pressures of working as a frontbench MP in Westminster.
But Conservative candidate Shazna Muzammil, the third Muslim running in Ladywood, suggested that Ms Mahmood was “rarely present” and that conditions in the area had “worsened under her watch”.
“There is a real possibility that Shabana is losing the trust of many of her constituents,” Ms Muzammil tells The National. “The question remains whether her majority is too substantial to overcome.”
With only a 2 per cent chance of winning the seat, the Sri Lankan-born Tory speaks candidly about how Mr Yakoob's candidacy “certainly adds an intriguing dynamic” to the election owing to “his impressive performance” in the mayoral race and his “well-tailored campaign themes”.
“Yakoob’s active engagement with the community, especially through regular marches in Alum Rock, coupled with his significant online following, particularly on platforms like TikTok, positions him as a formidable opponent in this race,” she adds.
Mine to lose
There is certainly an energy about Mr Yakoob’s campaign that springs from the snappily attired young men who pour over electoral rolls at his headquarters to identify potential voters.
The polling site Electoral Calculus gives him a 15 per cent chance of winning, with Labour on 79 per cent. That led to some incredulous looks around the large conference table at Mr Yakoob's campaign headquarters when that information was relayed by The National.
But when informed that the same company puts Ms Mahmood’s predicted vote share at 37 per cent, just six points ahead of the independent, the mood among his team brightens.
Their candidate exhorts them with the quip of “that’s it boys, we’ve just got to close that six per cent, so that’s three more weeks of very hard work from now”.
But there is also an admission of the challenge ahead, with the constituency’s nine wards dominated by Labour councillors and the party’s candidates backed by a sophisticated election team. “We could win it, but Labour have a lot of the votes sewed up,” one of Mr Yakoob's supporter says with a shrug.
