Dubai’s plans to expand its Metro network and more than double the number of stations could have a significant impact on the development of the emirate, analysts have said.
New business openings could be created and there could be reductions in pollution and congestion – if drivers can be tempted out of their vehicles.
Under the plans – announced as part of a wider economic strategy by the emirate's Executive Council on Sunday – the number of Dubai Metro stations will jump from today’s 55 (plus 11 tram stops) to 96 by 2030, with a further significant increase, to a projected 140 stations, by 2040.
While Dubai is often seen as car-orientated, the Metro expansion aims to help turn the urban area into a 20-minute city, meaning key daily needs, including work and shopping, would be available within a maximum 20 minutes of where a person lives without their having to use a car.
Dr Alexandra Gomes, research fellow at the London School of Economics who has analysed cities in the Gulf, said with the addition of new stations and lines, Dubai could "densify" through "transit-oriented development", a strategy applied successfully in many other cities worldwide.
Densification often goes hand in hand with strengthened public transport networks, because low-density areas tend to be less suitable for public transport.
"To maximise the benefits of this densification, it’s essential to also develop mixed-use development and good walking infrastructure that supports walkability both within the areas surrounding the stations and in the access routes to the Metro stations," she said.
Mixed-use developments, Dr Gomes said, may combine residential, commercial and other uses, contrasting with "monofunctional areas".
On track for progress
The building of new Metro lines and stations in Dubai will create "significant potential business opportunities if the land near the stations is made available for commercial developments", Dr Gomes said.
"Densification increases the demand for goods and services, creating a favourable environment for businesses," she said.
Dr Gomes said the likes of Hong Kong, Singapore and many European cities had grown significantly around their metro and train networks, potentially offering a glimpse into what could happen in Dubai.
"For example, London has recently opened the Elizabeth Line, a high-frequently, high-capacity railway line similar to a metro," she said. "This line not only supports potential new developments but also connects areas that were geographically close, yet distant in terms of travel time, by public transport, which previously encouraged car use."
Another example is Tokyo, where land around metro lines has become much more densely developed and has increased in value.
Even before this week’s announcement, Dubai Metro, which currently has a Red Line with 35 stations, and a Green Line with 20, was set for significant expansion through the construction of the Blue Line, which will add 14 stations and 30km at a cost of Dh18 billion ($4.9 billion).
Peter Schwinger, a transport economics, strategy and planning specialist in Germany who has previously worked in the UAE, said that in the creation of new "centres" – high-density mixed-use developments with workplaces and services in close proximity – was a core component of the Dubai 2040 masterplan.
"The key challenge for Dubai’s Road and Transport Authority (RTA) however, is to align the new metro corridors with those centres," he said.
"In the past, metro lines were often built parallel to urban highways to save cost and time rather than through the [middle] of the development they are supposed to serve."
He gave Dubai Mall Metro Station as the most prominent example, where millions of passengers each year have to walk an extra 10 to 15 minutes to reach their destination using the Metro Link Bridge.
Cutting congestion
One hope that residents may have is that the expansion of Dubai Metro will reduce traffic congestion, potentially making commuting easier for drivers and cutting pollution.
Experience from other cities indicates that improvements in public transport can cut gridlock if other measures incentivise people not to use cars.
For example, in London, the Elizabeth Line, along with the Congestion Charge and the Ultra Low Emissions Zones, have "been instrumental in reducing the number of cars in central London", Dr Gomes said. This has, she added, had a positive effect on pollution levels.
"If the expansion [in Dubai] encourages a significant number of people who previously drove to switch to using the Metro, it could lead to a reduction in the number of cars on the roads, decrease traffic congestion and lower pollution levels," she said.
"However, if the expansion primarily supports new Dubai residents without reducing the number of cars on the roads, the impact on traffic and pollution might be minimal. Nevertheless, it is positive that these new residents might not need a car to move within the city."
Mr Schwinger said that adding lines could cut pollution, although he cautioned that some of the existing lines served new developments in Dubai, so may not have caused public transport to gain a greater market share.
"Dubai has seen a significant rise in public transport usage in recent years that goes beyond the post-Covid rebound in ridership you see elsewhere in urban transport," he said.
"Growing the network certainly has a positive impact on the level of congestion as well as pollution."
Dr David Roberts, a senior lecturer at King’s College London, said Dubai’s continued focus on construction, as indicated by the plans to expand the Metro, tied in with the nature of the city’s political economy – the way that economies are managed by political systems – which is "fundamentally oriented towards building stuff".
He said part of this may be driven by the momentum of a sector made up of companies with access to "comparatively cheap credit".
"It’s a local political economy in the region where there’s a lot of competition from the Kingdom [of Saudi Arabia], from Qatar, from Bahrain," said Dr Roberts, who is an editor of the Elements in Middle East Politics series published by Cambridge University Press.
"Some constant growth is maybe aimed at keeping Dubai’s place as the premier commercial [and] logistical hub.
"I would imagine there will be continual growth in the near future. That’s the guess."
While Dubai has developed a diversified economy and reduced its dependence on hydrocarbons, Dr Roberts said it was "co-dependent" on other major cities in the region, where sometimes a greater proportion of economic activity has been linked to hydrocarbons.
As the world slowly transitions to activities that do not involve hydrocarbons, it made sense for Dubai to continue to grow and develop its other capabilities, Dr Roberts said.
