Egypt and Ethiopia are expelling diplomats in a tit-for-tat row that marks a new escalation in their already tense relations.
Ethiopia initiated the row when its Foreign Ministry issued a brief statement late on Thursday, ordering a senior Egyptian diplomat, Ahmed Moharam Ahmed Soliman, to leave Ethiopia within 48 hours. It gave no reason for its action.
Egypt responded by expelling a senior member of Ethiopia's diplomatic mission in Cairo, also giving him two days to leave. It did not name the diplomat, but said he was the embassy's counsellor.
The expulsions came one day after Ethiopia ordered the closure of its embassy in Eritrea, a close ally of Egypt, and declared 10 Eritrean diplomats persona non grata. That prompted Asmara to sever diplomatic ties with its neighbour after overnight blasts heard in Addis Ababa sparked fears that renewed conflict in northern Ethiopia might be spreading.
Addis Ababa has accused Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt of supporting an opposition alliance led by the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) that has battled troops loyal to Ethiopia's federal government since last week. The three countries deny the accusation.
In Cairo, state media cited an unnamed source saying Ethiopia's expulsion of the Egyptian diplomat was “unfortunate” and unjustified. Egypt consistently rejects interference in the internal affairs of other countries, the source added, alluding to Addis Ababa's claim Egypt was aiding the Ethiopian rebels.
Egypt and Ethiopia are already locked in a bitter, decade-old dispute over the Nile's water, with Cairo claiming that a huge dam built by Addis Ababa will likely reduce Egypt's vital share of the river's water.
Egypt insists any reduction in its share will jeopardise its survival because it depends on the Nile for nearly all its freshwater needs. Less water would also disrupt its fragile and politically sensitive food balance, wipe out millions of farming jobs and sending its already hefty food import bill soaring, Egypt says.
Years of negotiations between Egypt and fellow downstream nation Sudan and Ethiopia have failed to produce what Cairo and Khartoum see as a necessary and legally binding deal on the running of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (Gerd).
The dam is built on the Blue Nile, by far the river's largest tributary that accounts for more than 80 per cent of the water reaching Egypt, one of the world's driest countries.
Egypt has repeatedly said the Nile's water is an existential issue and that it would not stand idly by if its share of the river's water were reduced. However, Cairo has never spoken openly of taking military action against Ethiopia to resolve the dispute.
President Abdel Fattah El Sisi said this week Egypt was creating “space for diplomacy and peaceful solutions” for its dispute with Ethiopia. “But that will not be at the expense of Egypt's existence and its people.”
The Egypt-Ethiopia dispute took a turn for the worse in the summer when the latter announced plans to build three more dams on the Blue Nile and that doing so was its sovereign right. Egypt reacted with fury, vowing it would not allow the construction of more dams, but did not say how it would prevent it.
Egypt has in the last three years been seeking to isolate landlocked Ethiopia, applying pressure so it will be flexible in any future negotiations.
Projecting the reach of its large military, Egypt now has ground or naval facilities in four countries that neighbour Ethiopia: Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti and Somalia. It has a military contingent of around 15,000 soldiers in Somalia serving in an African Union peacekeeping force and a large mission that supports, advises and trains the military there.
Egypt's southern fleet, led by one of its navy's two French-made Mistral troop and helicopter carriers, is also deployed in the Red Sea off the Horn of Africa near the strategic Bab Al Mandeb strait.
Sources told The National this week that Egypt's contingent in Somalia is set to grow to about 30,000 and that a large section of an existing Somali military complex near the capital, Mogadishu, is being significantly upgraded to serve as a base for the Egyptians.
The sources, who are briefed on Egypt's military presence in Somalia and elsewhere in the Horn of Africa, said the base is in the Middle Shabelle region north-east of Somalia's capital. It includes Cisiley Airport, which served as the country's main air hub during years of unrest in Mogadishu.
The runway, according to the sources, will allow Egypt to operate light aircraft and attack helicopters in aid of its peacekeeping mission. The deployment of jet fighters there, if needed, cannot be ruled out, they said.
The sources spoke after news emerged on Wednesday that Ethiopia was planning to withdraw thousands of its troops from Somalia, as escalating fighting at home has forced Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government to redirect military resources towards a widening conflict with the rebel alliance.
More than 3,000 Ethiopian troops were expected to begin pulling out in the coming days or weeks, according to people familiar with the matter who spoke to Bloomberg but asked not to be identified.
