US strikes on Houthis send warning to Iran, experts say

Attacks in Yemen must disrupt Iranian influence or civilian suffering will be prolonged, analysts tell The National

People gather at the rubble of a house hit by a US air strike in Saada, Yemen. Reuters

US strikes on Yemen’s Houthi rebels send a warning message to Iran but will prolong civilian suffering, which the group will then exploit, officials told The National on Sunday.

US President Donald Trump ordered strikes on Houthi-held areas in Yemen late on Saturday, promising to use “overwhelming lethal force” until the Iran-backed rebels stop their attacks on ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.

The attacks killed "multiple" Houthi leaders and ensured Iran was "put on notice" to end its support for the rebel group, the White House said on Sunday.

The strikes "actually targeted multiple Houthi leaders and took them out", National Security Adviser Michael Waltz told ABC News. He told Fox News the US "just hit them with overwhelming force and put Iran on notice that enough is enough".

The US is exerting so-called maximum pressure on Iran and its proxies in the region. Mr Trump has increased sanctions on Tehran while trying to convince the regime to return to the negotiating table over its nuclear programme.

“The main message is for Iran, President Trump wants to tell them he can target them next. As he likes to say, ‘negotiation through strength’,” Baraa Shiban, a Yemen expert and associate fellow at the Rusi defence think tank, told The National. “It looks, from the intensity of the strikes, like this operation will continue, which will degrade their [the Houthis] capabilities, similar to what happened with Hezbollah in Lebanon."

The strikes, which killed at least 31 people, came shortly after the Yemeni rebels said they would resume their attacks on Red Sea shipping following Israel’s blockade on Gaza. There have been no reports of Houthis attacking international ships since.

Mr Trump is trying to be "proactive and strike the Houthis, rather than wait until they attack,” Mr Shiban said.

These attacks, which caught the Houthis by surprise, are in stark contrast to previous strikes by the administration of Joe Biden that were expected.

"I was completely surprised to see the level of accuracy of these targets," said Fatima Alasrar, a senior policy analyst at the Washington Centre for Yemeni Studies. "It indicates a real knowledge of sites that the Houthis have hidden deeply within civilian areas, and the fact that the United States can target it with such precision at this very moment just signifies to the Houthis that the US is watching, and that they know exactly what the Houthis are up to."

Ms Alasrar told The National that the strikes were reminiscent of when Israel detonated the pagers of thousands of Hezbollah fighters.

“This message got heard loud and clear, and was really the only response of a strong nation that won't allow proxies to run the region," she said.

A statement by Sanaa’s municipality and local authorities, seen by The National, called on civilians to flee Houthi-held areas and seek safety. “These developments that are targeting the Houthis will have a direct effect to further exacerbate the suffering of the Yemeni people,” it said. “The continuation of these escalations will bring further suffering to Yemen, and put it at the forefront of regional and international escalation."

In response to Washington’s attacks, the rebels' political bureau said US “aggression” would not go unanswered, with escalation met with escalation.

Authorities called on civilians to follow government guidelines and ignore opposition groups that “will attempt to cause chaos throughout the country”.

A Yemen-government official said authorities welcomed the move by Mr Trump to exert pressure on the Houthis and in turn send a warning to Iran to stop its support for proxies.

Mr Trump's "decisive approach is exactly what was needed to confront the Houthis", he said on condition of remaining anonymous. "Appeasement has only emboldened them. Only strength can bring stability and not concessions. The strikes are also a message to Iran to halt its actions and meddling in other states' affairs."

However, while the attacks focus on military installations and equipment, as well as draining Houthi resources, the group has consistently demonstrated its ability to adapt and recover, said Osamah Al Rawhani, Yemen expert and non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Middle East Programmes.

"Beyond their direct impact on the Houthis, these air strikes deeply affect civilians, as Houthi-controlled territory represents more than 60 per cent of Yemen’s population," he told The National. "This instils fear and increases resentment towards the United States from citizens who do not support the Houthis.

The attacks must have a "comprehensive approach that disrupts weapons and parts-smuggling from Iran, and addresses the political and economic drivers empowering the Houthis," he said "This week’s bombings risk prolonging the suffering of Yemenis."

Iran-backed Hezbollah condemned the large-scale military strikes, in a statement on Sunday.

Washington redesignated the Houthis a foreign terrorist organisation this month, reversing a Joe Biden-era policy.

The attacks also came days after Mr Trump sent a letter to Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, offering to hold talks on Tehran's nuclear programme. Mr Khamenei rejected the proposed negotiations, saying it letter was aimed at "deceiving public opinion" and increasing pressure on Iran.

Willy Lowry contributed to this report from Washington