US Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth said on Monday that stronger military co-operation with ally Saudi Arabia was "something we're discussing". The context was a potential crisis with Iran.
His comments put the US military posture in the Middle East back in the spotlight amid concerns in Washington that the US military is overstretched globally. Since Barack Obama's "Pacific Pivot", Washington has been trying to shift the US military effort to East Asia, and Mr Trump has stressed that he believes Beijing is now the US's main competitor.
Three concerns have been at the forefront of US defence planners’ minds. Firstly, the availability of air defence systems, secondly the availability of “stand-off” strike munitions (such as cruise missiles) and thirdly the availability of ships, particularly the US's massive aircraft carriers, the most potent symbol of American global power projection.
Saudi Arabia has been aware of this pressure on US air defence capability, and ordered 44 Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (Thaad) launchers in 2017 to boost its existing arsenal of Patriot air defence systems, which are versatile and can be used against drones and cruise and ballistic missiles.
Thaad, meanwhile, has one of the world’s most powerful radars, and has been deployed successfully in Israel following the largest missile and drone attacks in history, launched by Iran in April and October, and is optimised to shoot down ballistic missiles. The first batch of Saudi Arabian air defenders completed training on the system last year and the kingdom will be manufacturing some parts of Thaad domestically, such as missile launch canisters.
Saudi Arabia is also buying South Korea’s formidable KM-SAM Block II system and has one of the world’s largest air forces, so it is well equipped to deal with a major emergency. Their air force also has extensive experience in hunting down Houthi drones. But any military alliance is about minimising risk, and increasingly countries are pooling defence resources.
More bombs, more ships
On the US side, a major concern has been extremely high demand for expensive interceptor missiles for systems like the Patriot and SM-3 missiles for the Aegis Ballistic Missile Defence System. SM-3s have been used against Houthi ballistic missiles in the Red Sea, as well as against Iranian attacks against Israel. SM-2s have been used against Houthi anti-ship missiles.
Patriot interceptors, meanwhile, have been in high demand globally, with production sent to Ukraine and European allies, amid rising global orders. Experts have long warned that these weapons have low production volumes in the US and that there are bottlenecks, such as a small number of companies that make rocket motors and associated components. At the same time, the high-tech interceptors with miniaturised radar systems and infrared seekers cost millions of dollars and their targets are often considerably cheaper.
According to Wes Rumbaugh, a defence analyst, the US still has stockpiles of hundreds of the most advanced Aegis interceptors, built up over years. Patriot production meanwhile is ramping up to 650 PAC-3 missiles per year. Meanwhile, the US is making strides with cheaper methods of downing drones.
Taken together, it is therefore likely that the US could significantly bolster Saudi Arabia’s air defences, if needed, despite small production numbers of missile interceptors, although the US Department of Defence does not disclose stockpile data.
The second major concern is strike munition stockpiles to counterstrike an adversary in the worst-case scenario. US commanders have on several occasions warned that supply of “stand-off” weapons such as Tomahawk land attack missiles and the stealthy AGM-158 JASSM wouldn't be sufficient for a major war with a “near peer” adversary like China.
These weapons are a critical deterrent because, used en masse, they create a crisis for enemy air defences and have powerful warheads for hitting airfields and command centres. The last time the US launched a massed salvo of cruise missiles was during the invasion of Iraq, when 800 of the weapons were launched. Production has plummeted but many thousands – including for the more advanced JASSM – are likely to be in stockpiles.
Tomahawks can be fired from a large number of US ships, submarines and planes and could be used as part of a massed assault in the event of war. According to US defence analyst Mackenzie Eaglen, 1,234 Tomahawks were produced in the decade to 2024.
The naval armada supporting this barrage is under strain, however, and analysts including Salvatore Mercogliano have highlighted a lack of support vessels, such as oilers for refuelling, a lack of army watercraft – for moving equipment, such as the so-called Gaza pier, and overall maintenance challenges.
Maintenance challenges have kept US aircraft carriers in the dock during the Houthi Red Sea crisis and has led to gaps in carrier deployments. Meanwhile, the US is building a much-delayed series of new Ford Class carriers.
December’s Ships Act for America seeks to remedy these shortfalls, but will be years in the making. Nonetheless, the US last year still managed to “surge” five carriers to the Pacific at once, a feat that would serve as a major deterrent in the Middle East. But on the minds of Pentagon staff will be a more distant threat: the risk of US entanglement in a war with China over Taiwan.
This, experts warn, would eat up US munitions stockpiles in a matter of days, or at best weeks, meaning that whatever the US can commit to the Middle East, Washington will always have one eye on the Pacific.
