Threats and promises secured Joseph Aoun’s path to Lebanese presidency

For the first time in nearly three decades, an elected leader falls outside Hezbollah's sphere of influence

Joseph Aoun at the parliament building in Beirut, after being elected president on Thursday. Reuters

Lebanon has finally elected a president after more than two years of political deadlock, a crisis that jeopardised crucial postwar reconstruction aid and threatened to complicate a ceasefire agreement with Israel.

However, the road was far from smooth.

Political sources in Beirut told The National on Thursday that various parties faced significant pressure to break the impasse, with the looming threat of sanctions and future diplomatic isolation.

They highlighted key behind-the-scenes manoeuvres that led to the election of army chief Gen Joseph Aoun. They viewed his ascent as a sign of Iran’s waning influence in Lebanon and the wider region, while highlighting the growing role of other powers – primarily Arab states – in stabilising the country.

“There was harsh language from mediators,” said a member of the parliament who voted during Thursday’s session, which was also attended by Arab and western ambassadors and diplomats.

“There were warnings and threats of international sanctions on Lebanon and individuals, if necessary,” the MP added.

Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah reached a ceasefire deal in November to stop a devastating war that had killed about 4,000 Lebanese, destroyed large parts of the country and inflicted significant damage on the militant group.

After the agreement was announced, officials in Beirut told The National that a key condition of the deal was for Lebanon to elect a president during the 60-day truce, which expires on January 26, as it transitions into a permanent ceasefire.

Gen Aoun was not Hezbollah’s pick. For the first time in nearly three decades, the elected president falls outside the party’s sphere of influence, signalling a major political shift. Hezbollah, through its MPs and allies, had maintained a firm grip on Lebanon’s military and political landscape, largely through its insistence on keeping its weapons after Israel’s withdrawal from most parts of southern Lebanon in 2000, following decades of occupation.

"This isn’t just Hezbollah conceding what it once firmly opposed; it’s also Iran relinquishing a significant portion of its influence in the region," a Lebanese political source explained.

"After losing key commanders, witnessing the defeat of its main proxy and seeing its strongest Arab ally ousted in Damascus, Iran's regional grip has undeniably weakened."

The election took place less than two weeks before US president-elect Donald Trump assumed office. Earlier, Lebanese officials involved in Hezbollah-Israel ceasefire negotiations were informed of "extensive" co-ordination between US President Joe Biden and Mr Trump's teams to finalise the deal, of which the election of a president was a key component.

Gen Aoun secured 99 votes in the second round of ballots to clinch the presidency. In the first session, he won 71 out of the 86 votes needed to rule the 128-member house. Shortly after the result was announced, he arrived at parliament, walking along a red carpet into the building, dressed in a suit rather than his usual military fatigues.

“The authorities will have a monopoly on weapons,” he told MPs in his maiden speech, apparently in reference to Hezbollah's arsenal. “The state must invest in its army, to be able to protect its borders, fight against borders, smuggling and terrorism, and prevent Israeli aggression on the territory.”

The crucial discussions that led to his election lasted for days this week and involved US envoy Amos Hochstein, French envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian and Saudi Arabia's Prince Yazid bin Mohammed.

“External forces wished for a purely Lebanese agreement but Lebanese MPs failed for two years to elect a president, which necessitated foreign intervention,” said another political source. “Foreign powers directly intervened through envoys. They possess various pressure tools, such as aid, sanctions and the reconstruction file. And they used them all."

Still grappling with the fallout from the financial collapse in 2019, Lebanon is in dire need of foreign assistance to rebuild after the war with Israel. The World Bank estimates about $8.5 billion in damages and losses resulting from the year-long conflict.

Several Lebanese current and former MPs and ministers said mediators, primarily Arabs, have made it clear in recent weeks that no financial aid would be sent to the state if the power vacuum persisted.

“Joseph Aoun reached the presidency through multiple layers: the US stick, the Iranian carpet, the Syrian threat and French diplomacy, in addition to the Saudi role,” said a leader in one of the biggest parliamentary blocs.

“The crucial discussions took place just hours before Thursday’s sessions. They were harsh but they also included promises and offers, such as supporting reconstruction efforts and providing a guarantee regarding Israel's withdrawal from Lebanon within the 60-day time frame.”