Israelis sceptical about government plan to repopulate abandoned north

Despite financial incentives for residents to return, a survey shows many are not convinced the region is safe

Destruction on the Lebanese side of the border with Israel as seen from the town of Metula on Saturday. AFP

Former residents of Israel’s abandoned far north are not returning home despite a ceasefire with Hezbollah and government efforts to repopulate the area, with many saying they fear for their safety as the clock winds down on a 60-day ceasefire.

Experts and locals told The National that the region is in limbo as a large number of northern Israelis wait for proof the truce will hold before committing to a return, highlighting a major strategic difficulty facing the country's leaders in instilling a sense of security in a society shaken by the wars in Lebanon and Gaza.

More than a year after tens of thousands flooded south to government-funded accommodation, fearing attacks from Hezbollah similar to those carried out by Hamas that caused the Gaza conflict in October 2023, many residents of the once bustling and scenic region are also unsure of the economic viability of moving home.

“Many of the people I’ve spoken to have said they’re not coming back yet and are waiting until what’s going to happen at the end of the ceasefire,” said Barry Praag, a former resident of the evacuated Kibbutz Dafna, one of the largest and oldest communities of its kind in Israel.

The vast majority of the kibbutz's one-time population of about 1,000 people are now scattered throughout the country. Mr Pragg expressed doubts that the Lebanese army would effectively police the region and prevent activity by Hezbollah.

“I don’t think civilians in the north of Israel have ever had high regard for the Lebanese army,” he said. “Every time Hezbollah wanted to lob in a rocket or make an incursion they haven’t stopped them.”

In a bid to entice about 60,000 residents back, Israel’s Finance Ministry has presented a compensation plan worth almost $1 billion. The package would give any evacuated northern adult a grant of up to almost $7,000, as well as about $3,500 to each family per child, for up to seven children, if they return by March 7.

Unveiling the incentives however, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said “the key to returning home is security and we are not going to compromise on this matter”.

A survey presented to Israel’s parliament on Monday said almost half of all evacuated Israelis are yet to decide whether to return, while five per cent have already made the decision not to.

The study found the main reason was fears about security, on top of the already significant logistical challenges of moving to an abandoned region where services have been frozen and homes damaged, as well as disruption to the education of children.

Sarit Zehavi, founder of Israeli think tank Alma, which focuses on security in the north, said that central to the concerns is the absence of evidence that the Lebanese Armed Forces, who as part of the ceasefire deal are supposed to gradually replace withdrawing Israeli troops in border areas, are fulfilling an obligation to disarm Hezbollah.

“I haven’t seen one single picture of the LAF evacuating Hezbollah munitions from southern Lebanon,” Ms Zehavi told The National, adding that a weak response from the Lebanese state could allow Hezbollah to gradually recover after the group was hugely depleted by its war with Israel.

Doubts about Lebanon's army come despite a recent assessment by a US general overseeing the ceasefire that praised the efforts of the LAF. Maj Gen Jasper Jeffers and a French counterpart working with him “viewed stockpiles of weapons to be destroyed in the coming days, which the LAF seized from unauthorised armed groups”, according to a readout earlier this week from the US embassy in Beirut.

“As part of the mechanism-enabled transition, the LAF immediately deployed forces to the area to clear roads, remove unauthorised munitions, and provide security for the people of Lebanon,” it added.

In a separate statement, Maj Gen Jeffers said the LAF has “acted decisively, rapidly, and with clear expertise”.

But the positive assessment is at stark odds with the perception of many Israelis.

“If he has seen these things I would love to see them as well,” Ms Zehavi said. “Since the Lebanese army failed for the past 18 years to comply with an existing agreement, the responsibility is on them to build trust and publish the munitions they are taking out of southern Lebanon, the same way that [Israeli forces] do.”

Evacuee Mr Praag said he struggled to imagine a satisfactory long-term arrangement after the ceasefire period ends at the end of this month. He said there was no clear strategy for the future, but he does not advocate a long-term Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon as a security solution, as pushed by some policy hawks.

“We need some sort of multinational force that can be trusted,” he said. “It’s sad but that’s a fact.”