Lebanon fears collapse of ceasefire agreement amid Israeli violations

One month before the truce transitions into a permanent ceasefire, the country is once again preparing for the worst-case scenario

A Lebanese soldier looks on in the southern Lebanese village of Khiam. AFP

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Lebanese officials fear the potential collapse of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah due to continuous Israeli violations, security and political sources in Beirut told The National.

The sources explained that, one month after the truce came into force and a month before it transitioned into a permanent ceasefire, the country is once again preparing for the worst-case scenario.

The war in Lebanon raged for more than a year after Iran-backed Hezbollah intervened in Israel’s war on Gaza on October 8 last year. The violence has left a trail of devastation and displacement in both countries, but especially in Lebanon, where more than 4,000 people have been killed, including hundreds of children, with villages wiped off the map.

Hundreds of thousands of Lebanese are displaced after their homes were left in ruins, while the country, already struggling with a years-long economic crisis, faces further challenges as sectors such as health care have suffered severe blows, limiting their ability to adequately respond to the emergency.

“The situation is very bad,” a security official said. “There is a feeling in Lebanese circles that Israel doesn’t want the deal any more or that it is preparing the ground for some type of permanent occupation.”

Signed a month ago, the agreement that halted the devastating war involves a 60-day truce, during which Hezbollah is supposed to withdraw north of the Litani River and Israeli troops draw down from the south of Lebanon. The truce, based on UN Security Resolution 1701, which brought the last war between Hezbollah and Israel to an end in 2006, also requires the Lebanese army to increase its presence in the south.

According to Lebanese officials, there have been more than 300 Israeli violations since the agreement was signed on November 27, including deep incursions into different areas of southern Lebanon. On Thursday, Israeli troops entered several southern villages, as reported by the Lebanese army.

Israel has rarely commented on its operations in southern Lebanon since agreeing to the deal, but it had warned Lebanese residents against returning to the villages before it withdrew its troops and has destroyed dozens of houses in several villages. It has launched air strikes on several targets, including one in the eastern region of Bekaa – a strike seen by Lebanese officials as a sign of Israel wanting to expand its “freedom of action” and set new rules of engagement.

Thirty Lebanese have been killed since the ceasefire went into effect.

A source close to Hezbollah, which has said it is committed to the agreement despite one missile attack on an Israeli army post in recent weeks, described the latest Israeli incursions as “an extremely dangerous development and a serious threat” to the ceasefire agreement.

“This development, which shows Israeli behaviour outside of any commitment or procedures, as if there were no understanding or commitments, requires the Lebanese state, government, army, and relevant parties to immediately reassess their positions and review the current situation,” said the source.

On Monday, Lebanon’s Prime Minister Najib Mikati urged the US-led committee responsible for overseeing the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah to exert pressure on Israel over its repeated violations of the truce agreement.

Former Lebanese Interior Minister Marwan Charbel told The National that Israel’s actions in Lebanon are related to those in neighbouring Syria, where it invaded and occupied new lands, taking advantage of a power vacuum with the fall of the regime into the hands of armed rebels.

“Everything that is happening in Syria is linked to Lebanon, especially since [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu feels today that he is able to do whatever he wants, and therefore he will not withdraw from Lebanon and nothing deters him,” Mr Charbel explained.

“Israel may have changed its mind regarding the ceasefire in Lebanon after the fall of the regime in Syria, and its goal now could be to grab more lands and expand.”