Syria's rebel coalition likely to fall back on UN-backed political transition plan

New rulers say they want leadership based on 2015 resolution

People and fighters gather at the Umayyad Mosque on Sunday, December 8 after Islamist-led insurgents declared that they had taken the Syrian capital and President Bashar Al Assad had fled. AFP

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Syria's rebel coalition is likely to try to revive a long-stagnant UN-backed political transition process following the end of Bashar Al Assad's government, two long-serving officials opposed to the former president said.

“A transitional governing body, according to Resolution 2254, will take over the administration of the country for a period of up to 18 months," Aymen Al Asmi, a representative of the Syrian opposition at peace talks that have taken place since 2017 in Damascus, told The National from Syria. “In the meantime, work is being done to call for a national assembly to write a new constitution for the country and an electoral law to vote on the constitution.”

The members of the transitional body would be agreed on “through the opposition institutions and the existing opposition platforms,” with the possible participation of non-partisan technocrats, Mr Al Asmi said.

Following Mr Al Assad's departure from Syria on Sunday and the end of more 50 years of his family’s rule, the main challenge for Syria's next rulers will be determining a governance structure and division of powers between military and political factions without collapsing into infighting.

Under huge pressure from Syrians to improve living conditions after decades of one-family rule, new political and military leaders will have to act fast to set up government accepted by a majority of Syrians. While many celebrate Mr Al Assad’s fall, they are also apprehensive about the uncertainty over what is to come, the prospect of new authoritarian governance and factional conflicts. The pressure to act could lead to new institutions that are installed rapidly while more complex issues are left to resolve at a later date.

If rebels can ensure sufficient stability, Syrians plan to implement a new order based on a resolution issued by the UN Security Council in 2015. Resolution 2254 agreed to support a political transition, including drafting a new constitution and UN-supervised free and fair elections, according to a senior Syrian politician opposed to Mr Al Assad. The international community had long been pressing for a return to UN-backed political transition talks, but Mr Al Assad and his government had not engaged in them, opponents to his government and regional officials previously said.

“I think within 10 days the plan will be finalised,” Ahmed Touma, a former president of the Syrian opposition, told The National.

Since Mr Assad's departure, the UN has urged for a return to the long-stagnant political transition based on Resolution 2254. The process has renewed energy following expressions of support from regional neighbours, both those who supported and opposed the former Syrian president.

In a meeting at Doha’s Sheraton hotel on Saturday, the foreign ministers of Turkey, Russia, Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt and Iraq agreed to support that process, according to a document viewed by The National. The meeting did not specifically lead to a decision from Mr Al Assad’s supporters to drop their backing, including Moscow and Tehran, according to a regional government official briefed on the talks. But overall, the official said, leaders present at talks in the Qatari capital believed that his days in office were numbered.

“The overall atmosphere in Doha gave me the impression that all states had already accepted that Bashar was a goner,” the official briefed on Saturday’s meeting told The National. “Turkey, Russia, Iran, the Arab countries, even lran seemed to be focusing on the next phase while mourning for a recent loss.”

In a statement on Sunday after Mr Al Assad fled Damascus, Iran’s Foreign Ministry said it backed the “international mechanisms, centring on UN Resolution 2254, for following up on the political process in Syria”, an indication that it is open to political change in Syria.

Russia, Mr Al Assad's other main backer, has given him asylum, although it had become unwilling to step in to defend his rule. Its hand in Syria is now weaker, but pragmatic outreach to the opposition and a robust relationship with opposition-supporting Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan may help Moscow to preserve some influence in the country.

A key challenge for the opposition is forming governance structures acceptable to all the factions, and whether they will in practice be dominated by one group or a coalition.

Abu Mohammed Al Jalwani, leader of the former Al Qaeda affiliate Hayat Tahrir Al Shams, led much of the public messaging around the capture of Damascus, and his group has its own civilian affairs arm, the Salvation Government. But there are also other political and military opponents to Mr Al Assad in the Turkey-backed Syrian Interim Government and its affiliated Syrian National Army (SNA), who will also want to play a part in leadership.

Mr Al Jawlani released a message on Telegram on Sunday saying that state institutions needed to be preserved and that they would remain under the auspices of former Prime Minister Mohammad Al Jalali, who worked with Mr Al Assad, until they could be handed over to new authorities.

Mr Al Assad's demise is also having ripple effects across the region. Turkey, a leading player in Syria, has gained significant influence in the country in the past 10 days. Rebels it directly backs were involved in taking Damascus, and are also currently carrying out a separate operation to seize Kurdish-held territory in north-eastern Syria.

If and how fighting that between Turkey-backed rebels and the US-backed SDF can be resolved is another large unanswered question. Ankara would be very likely to oppose any sort of self-governance by Kurdish groups in north-eastern Syria, whom it views as terrorist organisations posing an immediate threat to its national security.

The Kurdish militias rule the approximately one-third of Syria still outside of rebel control. Ayham Al Ghazzi, a member of the Syrian Council for International Relations, a group of Syrian diplomats who defected during Mr Al Assad’s rule, said that the Kurdish militia, previously told The National that they should be invited to a national conference to prepare a new constitution followed by a general election and a government.

Ankara is welcoming the idea that more than three million Syrians who sought refuge on Turkish soil may now be prepared to go home. Anti-refugee sentiment has grown in Turkey in recent years and efforts by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to reach out to Mr Al Assad earlier this year were in part to find a way to return migrants. That is now more likely to happen because the majority of Syrians in Turkey said they would not go home while Mr Al Assad remained in power.

“Our Syrian brothers and sisters should live freely and securely in their own lands,” Turkish Justice Minister Yilmaz Tunc wrote in a post on X on Sunday.

Turkish construction companies, who have for decades carried out work in post-conflict zones, may also seek to benefit from contracts in Syria as the country rebuilds. Whoever Syria’s new rulers will be, they face the enormous challenge of governing a country whose infrastructure is in ruins and whose people are psychologically drained by nearly 14 years of conflict.

Mr Al Asmi, the opposition politician, said he saw a need to rebuild basic services in Hama, which opposition fighters took from pro-Assad forces last Thursday. “Hama is lacking necessary services for civilians,” he told The National, blaming the inadequacies on negligence by Mr Al Assad’s government over the past 14 years.

“There is no destruction of buildings inside the city, but there is destruction in the countryside, and a failure in the basic services system such as electricity, cleaning, and the like.”