Syria's future hinges on how rebel coalition manages political transition

The world woke up to a new Syria but some are wary about its prospects

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Syria's rebel forces, who took control of the nation after deposing Bashar Al Assad, have kept the civil administration, but to achieve stability they will need to fill the political vacuum and curb fragmentation along sectarian and ethnic lines, foreign officials and members of the former opposition to the regime said.

“We woke up to a new Syria,” Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan told reporters in Doha. “The opposition should now unite.”

Damascus fell on Sunday to a myriad rebel groups, ending the five-decade rule of Mr Al Assad and his late father Hafez Al Assad over majority-Sunni Syria. After the rebels took swathes of the country, Mr Al Assad’s core Alawite supporters moved to the coast and a group of mostly Kurdish militias expanded a land grab in the east.

The rebels are led by Hayat Tahrir Al Sham, an Al Qaeda offshoot with links to Turkey. Its leader, Ahmad Al Shara, formerly known as Abu Muhammad Al Julani, has instructed the rebels to keep the civil department of the government under the supervision of the last prime minister who served under Mr Al Assad. Mr Al Shara recently abandoned his nom de guerre, to project an image of moderation, although his organisation is listed as a terrorist group by the US and Europe.

Ayham Al Ghazzi, a member of the Syrian Council for International Relations, a group of Syrian diplomats who defected during Mr Al Assad’s rule, said that the Kurdish militia, which controls large parts of the east, should be invited to a national conference to prepare a new constitution followed by a general election and a government.

“This should take six-to-nine months,” Mr Al Ghazzi told The National. "We are hoping for pluralism and legislation that prevents the security forces from interfering in public life."

A former military officer who worked with the rebels said that although some in the opposition may try to out-manoeuvre Mr Shara politically, his military power makes him the kingmaker. A group calling itself the National Transitional Council, which is linked to Brig Gen Tlas, a friend of Mr Al Assad who defected in 2013, has already been formed, promising to preserve "the institutions of the state".

“No one will be able to operate in Damascus without a green light from Abu Muhammad Al Julani," the rebel-linked military officer said. "He has to act swiftly to prevent a post-Saddam Baghdad scenario."

Geir Pedersen, a UN envoy to Syria who was in Damascus in November, said he did not anticipate at that time that Assad would fall. "I think we were all surprised," he said. "It could be the beginning really for a new Syria. Let's hope that there is a willingness to work together to that."

There was some looting in Damascus on Sunday and flights were suspended at Damascus International Airport. Still, the scenes did not resemble the chaos that engulfed the Iraqi capital immediately after the 2003 downfall of Saddam Hussein.

French foreign affairs minister spokesman Christophe Lemoine said that fissures in the country are due to the regime having "constantly set Syrians against each other".

"The time for unity has come," he said. Paris called for a "peaceful political transition" and appealed to Syrians for "reconciliation, and to reject all forms of extremism".

Majed Al Ansari, spokesperson for the Qatari Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said Doha "would love to see a transition to a viable state that ... reflects the ambitions of the Syrian people and that embodies [their] sacrifice".

"We don't know who is going to rule Syria tomorrow," Mr Al Ansari said. "There are a lot of militants on the ground. There is the possibility of Syria becoming a failed state."

In Jordan, King Abdullah said that "intensive and quick work must be done to impose stability and avoid any conflict that could lead to chaos".

The kingdom has been part of an Arab accommodation with Mr Al Assad, which started in the past three years but did not make much progress in realising the interests of the two sides.

It aimed at luring the regime to lessen its alliance with Iran, and curb a multi-billion dollar trade in the Captagon amphetamine. The drugs flowed from Syria to inner Arabia through Jordan, enriching both the ruling elite in Damascus and Iranian-backed militias.

Jordan has accused the Syrian military and the militias of sponsoring the trade. Assad denied involvement.